Natural disasters and clientelism: the case of floods and landslides in Colombia

What are the effects of natural disasters on electoral results? Some authors claim that catastrophes have a negative effect on the survival of leaders in a democracy because voters have a propensity to punish politicians for not preventing or poorly handling a crisis. In contrast, this paper finds that these events might be beneficial for leaders. Disasters are linked to leader survival through clientelism: they generate an in-flow of resources in the form of aid, which increase money for buying votes. Analyzing the rainy season of 2010-2011 in Colombia, considered its worst disaster in history, I use a difference-in-differences strategy to show that in the local election incumbent parties benefited from the disaster. The result is robust to different specifications and alternative explanations. Moreover, places receiving more aid and those with judicial evidence of vote-buying irregularities, are more likely to reelect the incumbent, supporting the mechanism proposed by this paper.

La actuación de la comunidad internacional frente a desastres naturales. Estudio de caso: cooperación internacional humanitaria y de emergencia hacia Japón luego del terremoto y tsunami del 11 de marzo de 2011

Este trabajo pretende mostrar el manejo que le da la comunidad internacional a los desastres naturales, a partir del envío de cooperación humanitaria y de emergencia. Para ello se realizó un estudio de caso de Japón y la ayuda que recibió luego del terremoto y tsunami del 11 de marzo de 2011. Esta tesis está dividida en 4 partes: el primer capítulo está dedicado a Japón, en este se pretende mostrar la vulnerabilidad del país frente a los desastres y los problemas que afrontó luego de la emergencia. El segundo capítulo está dedicado a la cooperación humanitaria y de emergencia, mostrando las distintas estrategias en esta materia que tienen los actores de la comunidad internacional. En el tercer capítulo se muestra el tipo de ayuda humanitaria que se envió a Japón por parte de la comunidad internacional frente a las principales necesidades y problemas de su población. Finalmente se establecen una serie de conclusiones que muestran como se dio el envío de la ayuda, si esta fue oportuna y si el manejo que dio el gobierno de Japón fue el adecuado.

The pattern of fall of serum bilirubin after operative relief of obstructive jaundice. A preliminary report

This is the beginning of a prospective study on patients who have obstructive jaundice to see how the serum bilirubin falls after operative relief of the obstruction. Seven of such patients have been studied; four had carcinoma of the head of the pancreas while the other three had choledocholithiasis. The patients with carcinoma had relief of the jaundice through a biliary-enteric anastomosis and those with common bile duct stones had choledochotomy with stone extraction which was completed with insertion of a T-tube. Serial bilirubin estimations were then performed post-operatively to chart the pattern and rate of descent of this in each patient. Our observations suggest that the pattern of fall of serum bilirubin after successful decompression of the extra-hepatic biliary tree exhibit a distinct pattern regardless of the surgical procedure performed for the relief of the obstruction.