Foreign perception of sovereign risk : an event study of the colombian armed conflict

Este paper estudia la relación entre algunos de los eventos más importantes del conflicto colombiano con la percepción extranjera de riesgo soberano, medido por los Credit Default Swaps (CDS) de los bonos del Gobierno Colombiano. Usando dos metodologías relativamente recientes, yo estimo el efecto causal de los eventos de conflicto ampliamente cubierto por los medios internacionales. En primer lugar construyo un grupo de control sintético que funciona como contra factual de la serie real de los CDS colombianos pero en ausencia de eventos de conflicto. Segundo, estimo el efecto acumulado del evento bajo la metodología de retornos anormales acumulados. Los resultados sugieren que los efectos de los eventos de conflicto sobre la percepción extranjera de riesgo soberano dependen de las especificaciones de cada evento.

Is There or Is There Not an Armed Conflict in Colombia?

The Colombian government thinks that accepting that there is an internal armed conflict in the country implies recognizing international personality o the groups in arms against the legitimate government. This article intends to demonstrate that this is not true and that, being terrorist groups, cannot be recognised as belligerents.

Sexual Violence Against Women as a Strategy to Dispossess Land in the Colombian Armed Conflict

This article reviews the evidence collected by diverse national and international organizations regarding the relationship between sexual violence against women, forced displacement, and dispossession in the context of the Colombian armed conflict. To this end, it uses the concept of “sexual violence regimes” to highlight that the endspursued by sexual violence are not always exhausted by simple consummation (that is, the act of sexual violence itself), but depending on the context, can be connected with broader strategic goals of armed actors. At the same time, this document admits the difficulty of proving this relationship with respect to judicial procedures, and thus sets out the possibility of creating a rebuttable presumption, in the framework of “unconstitutional state of affairs” created by judgment T-025 of 2004, that alleviates the burden of proof of the victims, and serves as a catalyst to promote new genderbased mechanisms of reparations.

Armed conflict and paramilitary groups in Chiapas

The armed conflict in Chiapas began in 1994 after the armed uprising of the Zapatista Army of National Liberation (EZLN). Until now the Mexican government do not recognize the existence of an armed conflict there, for what they call inter-ethnic violence that happens in different municipalities in Chiapas. This study aims at demonstrating that, first, the Mexican state of Chiapas has an armed conflict since the mid-nineties, which has intensified and transformed over sixteen years. It is in this transformation that have emerged paramilitary groups seeking to destabilize the state, generating dynamics of appropriation and control of territory through different practices such as forced displacements, selective assassinations and terror spread within populations who are the targets of their attacks (mainly community support of the Zapatista Army of National Liberation). This work studied the "Peace and Justice" paramilitary group operating in different parts of the state of Chiapas, mainly in the Northern Zone. This case-study will look at the changes it has undergone Mexican democracy, which will be analyzed at two points: first, the failure of federal and Chiapas state to allow or endorse the creation of paramilitary groups and not to punish their actions; on the other, the consequences of the actions of such actors in democratic institutions, and democracy itself. Will seek to demonstrate that indeed both the permissiveness of the Mexican state and its complicity has weakened democracy in Mexico, since they are not able to manage conflict so that they do not degenerate into violence.

Elementos de la reforma constitucional en Colombia y el nuevo marco institucional

El artículo examina el impacto social y político que tuvo lugar con el cambio constitucional ocurrido en Colombia desde la década de los noventa, y resultante del modelo consagrado en la Constitución Política de 1991.Partiendo de ese proceso, el análisis revisa las principales características de la introducción y posterior coexistencia de dos modelos de Estado antagónicos: el Estado Social de Derecho y el Estado Neoliberal, convergentes en el articulado de la Constitución de 1991. Así mismo, se revisan las innovaciones institucionales que ambos modelos le introducen al régimen político colombiano, especialmente en lo atinente a la administración de justicia, la estructura del poder público y la articulación de la participación como eje de la democracia.Simultáneamente, se estudian los elementos característicos de la coexistencia de estos dos modelos mediante el análisis del comportamiento de actores individuales y colectivos y de los hechos políticos concretos que han configurado dicha relación durante la última década del siglo XX, así como su incidencia en la inestabilidad del régimen político colombiano. Finalmente, se consideran las deficiencias en la cultura política y la constante interferencia de los sectores tradicionales y de los actores armados como rasgo estructural que impide concretar las aspiraciones del proyecto de reforma y progresión democráticas contemplado en la Constitución de 1991.-----From a critical perspective, this essay examines the root socioeconomic and political impact of the constitutional change that occurred in Colombia during the decade of the 90s, and the resultant model consecrated in the Political Constitution of 1991.Taking that process as a starting point, the analysis reviews the principal characteristics of the introduction and subsequent coexistence of two antagonistic models of state: The Social State of Right and the Neoliberal State convergent in the articulation of the Constitution of 1991. Also, the article studies the institutional innovations that both models introduce to the Columbian political regime, especially in regards to the justice administration, the structure of public power and the srticulation of participation as the axis of democracy.At the same time, the article reviews the elements that exemplify the coexistence of these two models, by means of analytical pursuit of the behabior of the individual and collective actors and of the concrete political facts that have formed said relation throughout the last decade of the 20th century, as well as its impact on the instability of the Columbian political regime. Finally, the essay considers the deficiencies in the political culture and the constant interference of the traditional sectors and of the armed actors as a characteristically structural obstacle to the achievement of the aspirations of the great project of democratic reform and progress contemplated in the Constitution of 1991.