Ciclos económicos, capital bancario y nuevas opciones de política económica

El objetivo de este trabajo es utilizar algunos hechos estilizados de la "Gran recesión", específicamente la drástica caída en el nivel de capitalización bancario, para analizar la relación entre los ciclos financieros y los ciclos reales, así como la efectividad de la política monetaria no convencional y las políticas macroprudenciales. Para esto, en el primer capítulo se desarrolla una microfundamentación de la banca a partir de un modelo de Costly State Verification, que es incluido posteriomente en distintas especificaciones de modelos DSGE. Los resultados muestran que: (i) los ciclos financieros y los ciclos económicos pueden relacionarse a partir del deterioro del capital bancario; (ii) Las políticas macroprudenciales y no convencionales son efectivas para moderar los ciclos económicos, pero son costosas en términos de recursos e inflación.

Exportaciones de petróleo de Colombia en relación con cantidades y precios internacionales: 1994-2014

La economía Colombiana, históricamente primarizada, ha dependido fundamentalmente de materias primas provenientes de productos agropecuarios y de la industria extractiva como productos petroleros, oro y carbón. Y siendo el petróleo crudo uno de los productos que junto con su categoría han pasado a representar el 40% del total de las exportaciones totales (DANE, 2016) y el 74% del total de las regalías que recibe el país (DNP, 2016), el desempeño de este producto impacta la economía colombiana de manera colosal. Este estudio brinda un análisis matemático de las variables que afectan la exportación de petróleo crudo en Colombia, seguido de un desafío de los resultados con diferentes postulados teóricos relacionados al crecimiento de economías a través de las exportaciones, así como variables endógenas y exógenas que las impactan. La metodología usada en esta investigación se basó en la recolección de datos en temas de producción, exportación e ingresos nacionales de petróleo crudo, ingresos nacionales por exportaciones totales, y los precios internacionales del petróleo. Al contrastarse entre sí, los resultados demuestran la correlación altamente positiva que la exportación del petróleo crudo tiene con la producción nacional y prueban la marcada concentración e importancia de la exportación de petróleo crudo en las ventas externas colombianas y sus efectos en la economía nacional, según lo acontecido en el periodo de 1994 a 2014.

Legal, political and economic aspects of the tragedy in rural Colombia in recent decades: hypothesis for analysis

Editorial

Telecommunications and economic growth: an empirical analysis of sub-saharan Africa

We examine the effect on economic growth of mobile cellular phones in sub-Saharan Africa where a marked asymmetry is present between land-line penetration and mobile telecommunications expansion. This study extends previous ones along two important dimensions. First, we allow for the potential endogeneity between economic growth and telecommunications expansion by employing a special linear generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator. Second, we explicitly model for varying degrees of substitutability between mobile cellular and land-line telephony, so that greater expansion of mobile telecommunications can have a different impact whenever the level of land-line penetration differs. We find that mobile cellular phone expansion is an important determinant of the rate of economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa. Moreover, we find that the contribution of mobile cellular phones to economic growth has been growing in importance in the region, and that the marginal impact of mobile telecommunication services is even greater wherever land-line phones are rare. Given the low cost of mobile telecommunications technology relative to other broad infrastructure projects, especially land-line infrastructure, we advocate that mobile telecommunication services be encouraged in the area.

Cartoons and economics: general analysis based on colombian economic cartoons

May cartoons be considered as a viable and credible source for the study of economics? There is hardly any research on the subject, even though there is a quite significant amount of cartoons with economic content. This suggests that economics (and economists) have not paid enough attention and do not incorporate in their analysis a relevant primary source. The present paper aims to explore the value of using cartoons as a complementary primary source in economic analysis. We present a way of analyzing economic history through cartoons; first, reviewing cartoons which describe particular historical circumstances and second, examining cartoons that represent generic economic situations and are not necessarily linked to a historical period. We choose 17 cartoons, from different cartoonist, especially Colombian cartoonists that may give us an idea of economic matters and economic history.

Plasmapheresis vs. immunoglobulin in autoimmune neurologic diseases: a meta-analysis

Objectives: to evaluate the efficacy and safety of human immunoglobulin versus plasmapheresis in the management of autoimmune neurologic diseases. Likewise, length of hospital stay and duration of ventilator support were compared. Methods: Randomized controlled trials and analytical observational studies of more than 10 cases, were reviewed. Cochrane Neuromuscular Disease Group trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, HINARI Ovid, the Database of abstracts of reviews of effectiveness and the Economic evaluation Database were searched as data source. Reference lists were examined for further relevant articles. A random-effect model was used to derive a pooled risk ratio. Results: 725 articles were found and 27 met the criteria for a population studied of 4717 cases: 14 articles were about Guillain Barré syndrome, 10 of Myasthenia Gravis, one of Sydenham Chorea, one of Chronic inflammatory demyelinating polyneuropathy, and one of PANDAS. No evidence was found in favor of any of the two treatments as regards effectiveness (OR 0.94, IC 0.63 – 1.41, p= 0.77) or ventilator support time; IGIV had a significant better safety profile than plasmapheresis (OR 0.70, IC 0.51 – 0.96, p= 0.03) and patients needed less time of hospital stay (p=0.03). Conclusions: There is no evidence for superiority in the effectiveness of immunoglobulin or plasmapheresis in the management of autoimmune neurologic diseases. Nevertheless, patients treated with immunoglobulin have statistically significant less adverse effects, a shorter hospital stay and a tendency of less ventilator support time. These premises could lead to fewer costs for health services but an economic study should be done.

Conceptual Rapprochement and the Analysis of the Historical, Normative and Jurisprudential Treatment of the Rural Workers, as Regards the Need for Special Protection

This article aims to present an approach to the issue of farm or rural zone workers, including a labour law study of agrarian legal decisions, so as to demonstrate their importance in respect to social, economic and cultural rights in Colombia. The study will serve to illustrate through the history, the applicable law and the jurisprudence, the different ways in which farmers have been treated from the time of the origin until the arrival of modern systems of industrialization. It calls into question the effectiveness of existing laws and the role of the courts, in spite of globalization, to maintain the minimum rights and guarantees of farm workers who are considered to be a vulnerable population. In conclusion, this study seeks to illustrate the current role of the Labor law and the National Health Service in the area of demonstrating of the existence or absence of mechanisms to protect workers in rural areas and the need to create some mechanisms that involve social justice given its prime importance in the Constitution of 1991.

The persistent colombian conflict bubnational analysis of the duration of violence

The growing empirical literature on the analysis of civil war has recently included the study of conflict duration at the cross-country level. This paper presents, for the first time, a within-country analysis of the determinants of violence duration. I focus on the experience of the Colombian armed conflict. While the conflict has been active for about five decades, local violence ebbs and flows and areas experiencing continuous conflict coexist with places that have been able to resile and where violence is mostly absent. I examine a wide range of factors potentially associated with violence duration at the municipal level, including scale variables, geographical conditions, economic and social variables, institutions and state presence, inequality, government intervention, and victimization variables. I characterize a few variables robustly correlated with the persistence of localized conflict, both across specifications and using different econometric models of duration analysis.

Gross Inequality and Inequality of Opportunities in Basic Education: Were they affected by Latin America’s Economic Boom?

In the context of economic growth and recovering socio-economic conditions, many Latin American countries have implemented deep educational reforms since the beginning of the century. This paper aims to analyse whether these changes have promoted equality of educational opportunities in the region. Both the access and knowledge and skills dimensions are evaluated for six important countries, deepening the analysis for Argentina, Brazil and Colombia, in order to better understand the trends observed. Results point to reasonable progress in access, but reflect an unsatisfactory evolution of the level and distribution of knowledge and skills as reflected by PISA test scores.

Overcoming Gender Disadvantages. Social Policy Analysis of urban middle-class women in Colombia

The World Bank Report 2012 starts with this statement: “Gender equality matters in itself andit matters for development because, in today’s globalized worlds, countries that use the skillsand talents of their women would have an advantage over those which do not use it.” With theframe that suggest that gender equality matters, this paper describes some policy alternativesoriented to overcome gender disadvantages in the formal labor market incorporation of theurban middle class women in Colombia. On balance, the final recommendation suggest that itis desirable to adopt policy alternatives as Community Centers, which are programs orientedto a social redistribution of the domestic work as a way to encourage women participationin the formal labor market with the social support of the members of their own community.The problem that the social policy needs to address is the segregation of women in the formallabor market in Colombia. Although the evidence shows that the women overcome theeducational gap by showing better performance in education that their male peers, womenare still segregated of the labor market. The persistence of high rates of unemployment on thefemale population, the prevalence of the informal labor market as a women labor market, andthe presence of the payment difference between men and women with similar professionaltrainings are circumstances that sustain the segregation statement. These circumstances areinefficient for the society because an economic analysis shows that the cost of maintain the statuquo is externalized in the social security system that includes health, pension and maternityleave regimens. Therefore, the women segregation involves a market failure.This paper evaluates five policy alternatives each directed to the progress of a different causaldimension of the problem: (i) Quotas in the private market, (ii) Flexible working hours,(iii) replace the maternity leave with a family leave, (iv) Increase the Community Centers forredistributing the care work, and (v) Equal payment enforcement. The first alternative looksto increase women’s participation in the formal labor market. The second, third, and fourthalternatives constitute a package addressed at redistributing care work by reducing women’sresponsibility for reproductive work in the household with the help of husbands and the localgovernment. The fifth alternative intervenes to resolve the equal payment problem.After a four criteria evaluation that measure effectiveness, robustness and improbability inimplementation, efficiency and political acceptability or social opposition, the strongest alternativeis the fostering of Community Centers that promote a redistribution of care work. Thispolicy performs well in the assessment process because it combines gender focus with importantindirect effects: child support and human capabilities. The policy also shows a bottomup implementation process that overcomes the main adoption difficulties in the gender focusprograms and is supported by strong evidence of success in the Colombian context; this evidenceis produced by both transnational actors as a World Bank and also in local accountabilityreporters executed by local institutions like Colombian Institute of Family Welfare (ICBF).

Informality in the City: a Theoretical Analysis

This thesis theoretically studies the relationship between the informal sector (both in the labor and the housing market) and the city structure.