Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Combined Analysis of the Short-Term Effects of Photochemical Air Pollutants on Mortality within the EMECAM Project

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO2, once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 μg/m3 increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO2 level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval(CI), –0.003–0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution

Design and synthesis of short antimicrobial peptides for plant protection. Study of their mode of action

Aquesta tesi doctoral està basada en el desenvolupament de nous agents antimicrobians derivats del pèptid híbrid cecropina A-melitina WKLFKKILKVL-NH2 (Pep3) que siguin sostenibles i útils per al control de malalties de plantes. Es van dissenyar i sintetitzar més de 133 anàlegs de Pep3 mitjançant química combinatòria. Es van obtenir anàlegs de Pep3 amb una elevada activitat contra fitopatògens i que presentaven baixa toxicitat. Els millors anàlegs van presentar eficàcies comparables amb pesticides de referència en la prevenció d'infeccions causades per fitopatògens. Es va estudiar el mecanisme d'acció de KKLFKKILKYL-NH2 (BP100) investigant la seva interacció amb models de membrana mitjançant tècniques espectroscòpiques. Es va observar la capacitat de BP100 a induir la permeabilització, la neutralització, i l'agregació de vesícules lipídiques aniòniques a una determinada concentració llindar. Es va deduir una equació que relaciona la CMI d'un pèptid antimicrobià amb la constant de partició i la concentració llindar en la membrana.