Compositional analysis of archaeological glasses

At CoDaWork'03 we presented work on the analysis of archaeological glass composi- tional data. Such data typically consist of geochemical compositions involving 10-12 variables and approximates completely compositional data if the main component, sil- ica, is included. We suggested that what has been termed `crude' principal component analysis (PCA) of standardized data often identi ed interpretable pattern in the data more readily than analyses based on log-ratio transformed data (LRA). The funda- mental problem is that, in LRA, minor oxides with high relative variation, that may not be structure carrying, can dominate an analysis and obscure pattern associated with variables present at higher absolute levels. We investigate this further using sub- compositional data relating to archaeological glasses found on Israeli sites. A simple model for glass-making is that it is based on a `recipe' consisting of two `ingredients', sand and a source of soda. Our analysis focuses on the sub-composition of components associated with the sand source. A `crude' PCA of standardized data shows two clear compositional groups that can be interpreted in terms of di erent recipes being used at di erent periods, re ected in absolute di erences in the composition. LRA analysis can be undertaken either by normalizing the data or de ning a `residual'. In either case, after some `tuning', these groups are recovered. The results from the normalized LRA are di erently interpreted as showing that the source of sand used to make the glass di ered. These results are complementary. One relates to the recipe used. The other relates to the composition (and presumed sources) of one of the ingredients. It seems to be axiomatic in some expositions of LRA that statistical analysis of compositional data should focus on relative variation via the use of ratios. Our analysis suggests that absolute di erences can also be informative

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies: a case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diVerent approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. Design—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-termeVects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona,Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992–1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were nonlinear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. Main results—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 μg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 μg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant,especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Conclusions—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities