Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

A variational approach for calculating Franck-Condon factors including mode-mode anharmonic coupling

We have implemented our new procedure for computing Franck-Condon factors utilizing vibrational configuration interaction based on a vibrational self-consistent field reference. Both Duschinsky rotations and anharmonic three-mode coupling are taken into account. Simulations of the first ionization band of Cl O2 and C4 H4 O (furan) using up to quadruple excitations in treating anharmonicity are reported and analyzed. A developer version of the MIDASCPP code was employed to obtain the required anharmonic vibrational integrals and transition frequencies

Estimation of electronic coupling in π -stacked donor-bridge-acceptor systems: correction of the two-state model

Comparison of donor-acceptor electronic couplings calculated within two-state and three-state models suggests that the two-state treatment can provide unreliable estimates of Vda because of neglecting the multistate effects. We show that in most cases accurate values of the electronic coupling in a π stack, where donor and acceptor are separated by a bridging unit, can be obtained as Ṽ da = (E2 - E1) μ12 Rda + (2 E3 - E1 - E2) 2 μ13 μ23 Rda2, where E1, E2, and E3 are adiabatic energies of the ground, charge-transfer, and bridge states, respectively, μij is the transition dipole moments between the states i and j, and Rda is the distance between the planes of donor and acceptor. In this expression based on the generalized Mulliken-Hush approach, the first term corresponds to the coupling derived within a two-state model, whereas the second term is the superexchange correction accounting for the bridge effect. The formula is extended to bridges consisting of several subunits. The influence of the donor-acceptor energy mismatch on the excess charge distribution, adiabatic dipole and transition moments, and electronic couplings is examined. A diagnostic is developed to determine whether the two-state approach can be applied. Based on numerical results, we showed that the superexchange correction considerably improves estimates of the donor-acceptor coupling derived within a two-state approach. In most cases when the two-state scheme fails, the formula gives reliable results which are in good agreement (within 5%) with the data of the three-state generalized Mulliken-Hush model

Estimates of electronic coupling for excess electron transfer in DNA

Electronic coupling Vda is one of the key parameters that determine the rate of charge transfer through DNA. While there have been several computational studies of Vda for hole transfer, estimates of electronic couplings for excess electron transfer (ET) in DNA remain unavailable. In the paper, an efficient strategy is established for calculating the ET matrix elements between base pairs in a π stack. Two approaches are considered. First, we employ the diabatic-state (DS) method in which donor and acceptor are represented with radical anions of the canonical base pairs adenine-thymine (AT) and guanine-cytosine (GC). In this approach, similar values of Vda are obtained with the standard 6-31 G* and extended 6-31++ G* basis sets. Second, the electronic couplings are derived from lowest unoccupied molecular orbitals (LUMOs) of neutral systems by using the generalized Mulliken-Hush or fragment charge methods. Because the radical-anion states of AT and GC are well reproduced by LUMOs of the neutral base pairs calculated without diffuse functions, the estimated values of Vda are in good agreement with the couplings obtained for radical-anion states using the DS method. However, when the calculation of a neutral stack is carried out with diffuse functions, LUMOs of the system exhibit the dipole-bound character and cannot be used for estimating electronic couplings. Our calculations suggest that the ET matrix elements Vda for models containing intrastrand thymine and cytosine bases are essentially larger than the couplings in complexes with interstrand pyrimidine bases. The matrix elements for excess electron transfer are found to be considerably smaller than the corresponding values for hole transfer and to be very responsive to structural changes in a DNA stack