A la llum de les matrius: projecte d'exposició temporal

El treball presenta el projecte d'una exposició temporal al Museu d'Art sobre el fons de xilografies procedents de la Impremta Carreras

Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Building wood debris piles benefits avian seed dispersers in burned and logged Mediterranean pine forests

Salvage logging is a common practice carried out in burned forests worldwide, and intended to mitigate the economic losses caused by wildfires. Logging implies an additional disturbance occurring shortly after fire, although its ecological effects can be somewhat mitigated by leaving wood debris on site. The composition of the bird community and its capacity to provide ecosystem services such as seed dispersal of fleshy-fruited plants have been shown to be affected by postfire logging. We assessed the effects of the habitat structure resulting from different postfire management practices on the bird community, in three burned pine forests in Catalonia (western Mediterranean). For this purpose, we focused on the group of species that is responsible for seed dispersal, a process which takes place primarily during the winter in the Mediterranean basin. In addition, we assessed microhabitat selection by seed disperser birds in such environments in relation to management practices. Our results showed a significant, positive relationship between the density of wood debris piles and the abundance of seed disperser birds. Furthermore, such piles were the preferred microhabitat of these species. This reveals an important effect of forest management on seed disperser birds, which is likely to affect the dynamics of bird-dependent seed dispersal. Thus, building wood debris piles can be a useful practice for the conservation of both the species and their ecosystem services, while also being compatible with timber harvesting