Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the study of tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of two different types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and Mountain Rainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated with a statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a better understanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special case of segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and the change in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephras using Bayesian statistical calibration

Statistical evidences of cyclic changes in volcanic gas chemistry composition by inverse modelling

The identification of compositional changes in fumarolic gases of active and quiescent volcanoes is one of the most important targets in monitoring programs. From a general point of view, many systematic (often cyclic) and random processes control the chemistry of gas discharges, making difficult to produce a convincing mathematical-statistical modelling. Changes in the chemical composition of volcanic gases sampled at Vulcano Island (Aeolian Arc, Sicily, Italy) from eight different fumaroles located in the northern sector of the summit crater (La Fossa) have been analysed by considering their dependence from time in the period 2000-2007. Each intermediate chemical composition has been considered as potentially derived from the contribution of the two temporal extremes represented by the 2000 and 2007 samples, respectively, by using inverse modelling methodologies for compositional data. Data pertaining to fumaroles F5 and F27, located on the rim and in the inner part of La Fossa crater, respectively, have been used to achieve the proposed aim. The statistical approach has allowed us to highlight the presence of random and not random fluctuations, features useful to understand how the volcanic system works, opening new perspectives in sampling strategies and in the evaluation of the natural risk related to a quiescent volcano

Selenium cycling in volcanic environments: the role of soils as reactive interfaces

Selenium (Se) is an element with important health implications that is emitted in significant amounts from volcanoes. Attracted by the fertility of volcanic soils, around 10% of the world population lives within 100 km of an active volcano. Nevertheless, the behaviour of Se in volcanic environments is poorly understood. Therefore, the main aim of this thesis is to investigate the role of soils in the Se cycling in volcanic environments. Prior to the geochemical studies, precise and accurate methods for the determination of Se contents, speciation and isotopic signatures were developed. Afterwards, a combination of field studies and lab controlled experiments were performed with soils from two contrasting European volcanic settings: Mount Etna in Sicily (Italy) and Mount Teide in Tenerife (Spain). The results showed a strong link between Se behaviour and soil development, indicating that Se mobility in volcanic soils is controlled by sorption processes and soil mineralogy.