Experimental design on the simplex

Optimum experimental designs depend on the design criterion, the model and the design region. The talk will consider the design of experiments for regression models in which there is a single response with the explanatory variables lying in a simplex. One example is experiments on various compositions of glass such as those considered by Martin, Bursnall, and Stillman (2001). Because of the highly symmetric nature of the simplex, the class of models that are of interest, typically Scheff´e polynomials (Scheff´e 1958) are rather different from those of standard regression analysis. The optimum designs are also rather different, inheriting a high degree of symmetry from the models. In the talk I will hope to discuss a variety of modes for such experiments. Then I will discuss constrained mixture experiments, when not all the simplex is available for experimentation. Other important aspects include mixture experiments with extra non-mixture factors and the blocking of mixture experiments. Much of the material is in Chapter 16 of Atkinson, Donev, and Tobias (2007). If time and my research allows, I would hope to finish with a few comments on design when the responses, rather than the explanatory variables, lie in a simplex. References Atkinson, A. C., A. N. Donev, and R. D. Tobias (2007). Optimum Experimental Designs, with SAS. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Martin, R. J., M. C. Bursnall, and E. C. Stillman (2001). Further results on optimal and efficient designs for constrained mixture experiments. In A. C. Atkinson, B. Bogacka, and A. Zhigljavsky (Eds.), Optimal Design 2000, pp. 225–239. Dordrecht: Kluwer. Scheff´e, H. (1958). Experiments with mixtures. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Ser. B 20, 344–360. 1

Fronts from integrodifference equations and persistence effects on the Neolithic transition

We extend a previous model of the Neolithic transition in Europe [J. Fort and V. Méndez, Phys. Rev. Lett. 82, 867 (1999)] by taking two effects into account: (i) we do not use the diffusion approximation (which corresponds to second-order Taylor expansions), and (ii) we take proper care of the fact that parents do not migrate away from their children (we refer to this as a time-order effect, in the sense that it implies that children grow up with their parents, before they become adults and can survive and migrate). We also derive a time-ordered, second-order equation, which we call the sequential reaction-diffusion equation, and use it to show that effect (ii) is the most important one, and that both of them should in general be taken into account to derive accurate results. As an example, we consider the Neolithic transition: the model predictions agree with the observed front speed, and the corrections relative to previous models are important (up to 70%)

La Transmisión textual de Locuras de Europa de Diego de Saavedra Fajardo

Treball de investigació centrat en la crítica textual on es descriuen atentament tots els testimonis que s’han conservat de l’obra tardana de Diego de Saavedra Fajardo “Locuras de Europa,” ambaixador i escriptor murcià. Es realitza una anàlisi exhaustiva dels quatre manuscrits i de les dues edicions impreses de l’obra per acabar filiant tots els testimonis en un stemma. El cos del treball es complementa amb el text crític final i amb un apartat crític

L'Erasmus: una gran oportunitat

Escrit sobre les oportunitats que pot donar la beca Erasmus als estudiants

Key competences in the new ventures: a model for evaluating

This research studies from an internal view based on the Competency-Based Perspective (CBP), key organizational competencies developed for small new business. CBP is chosen in an attempt to explain the differences characterizing the closed companies from the consolidated ones. The main contribution of this paper is the definition of a set of key organizational competencies for new ventures from services and low technology based sectors. Using the classification proposed by [1] and a review of the entrepreneurship literature, the main competencies were defined and classified as: managerial, input-based, transformation-based, and output-based competencies. The proposed model for evaluating new ventures organizational competence is tested by means of Structural Equation

Case-Crossover Analysis of Air Pollution Health Effects: A Systematic Review of Methodology and Application

Case-crossover is one of the most used designs for analyzing the health-related effects of air pollution. Nevertheless, no one has reviewed its application and methodology in this context. Objective: We conducted a systematic review of case-crossover (CCO) designs used to study the relationship between air pollution and morbidity and mortality, from the standpoint of methodology and application.Data sources and extraction: A search was made of the MEDLINE and EMBASE databases.Reports were classified as methodologic or applied. From the latter, the following information was extracted: author, study location, year, type of population (general or patients), dependent variable(s), independent variable(s), type of CCO design, and whether effect modification was analyzed for variables at the individual level. Data synthesis: The review covered 105 reports that fulfilled the inclusion criteria. Of these, 24 addressed methodological aspects, and the remainder involved the design’s application. In the methodological reports, the designs that yielded the best results in simulation were symmetric bidirectional CCO and time-stratified CCO. Furthermore, we observed an increase across time in the use of certain CCO designs, mainly symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. The dependent variables most frequently analyzed were those relating to hospital morbidity; the pollutants most often studied were those linked to particulate matter. Among the CCO-application reports, 13.6% studied effect modification for variables at the individual level.Conclusions: The use of CCO designs has undergone considerable growth; the most widely used designs were those that yielded better results in simulation studies: symmetric bidirectional and time-stratified CCO. However, the advantages of CCO as a method of analysis of variables at the individual level are put to little use

Virus infection speeds: theory versus experiment

In order to explain the speed of Vesicular Stomatitis Virus VSV infections, we develop a simple model that improves previous approaches to the propagation of virus infections. For VSV infections, we find that the delay time elapsed between the adsorption of a viral particle into a cell and the release of its progeny has a very important effect. Moreover, this delay time makes the adsorption rate essentially irrelevant in order to predict VSV infection speeds. Numerical simulations are in agreement with the analytical results. Our model satisfactorily explains the experimentally measured speeds of VSV infections

Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies: a case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diVerent approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. Design—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-termeVects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona,Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992–1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were nonlinear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. Main results—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 μg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 μg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant,especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Conclusions—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities