Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Combined Analysis of the Short-Term Effects of Photochemical Air Pollutants on Mortality within the EMECAM Project

In recent years, some epidemiologic studies have attributed adverse effects of air pollutants on health not only to particles and sulfur dioxide but also to photochemical air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide and ozone). The effects are usually small, leading to some inconsistencies in the results of the studies. Furthermore, the different methodologic approaches of the studies used has made it difficult to derive generic conclusions. We provide here a quantitative summary of the short-term effects of photochemical air pollutants on mortality in seven Spanish cities involved in the EMECAM project, using generalized additive models from analyses of single and multiple pollutants. Nitrogen dioxide and ozone data were provided by seven EMECAM cities (Barcelona, Gijón, Huelva, Madrid, Oviedo, Seville, and Valencia). Mortality indicators included daily total mortality from all causes excluding external causes, daily cardiovascular mortality, and daily respiratory mortality. Individual estimates, obtained from city-specific generalized additive Poisson autoregressive models, were combined by means of fixed effects models and, if significant heterogeneity among local estimates was found, also by random effects models. Significant positive associations were found between daily mortality (all causes and cardiovascular) and NO2, once the rest of air pollutants were taken into account. A 10 μg/m3 increase in the 24-hr average 1-day NO2 level was associated with an increase in the daily number of deaths of 0.43% [95% confidence interval(CI), –0.003–0.86%] for all causes excluding external. In the case of significant relationships, relative risks for cause-specific mortality were nearly twice as much as that for total mortality for all the photochemical pollutants. Ozone was independently related only to cardiovascular daily mortality. No independent statistically significant relationship between photochemical air pollutants and respiratory mortality was found. The results in this study suggest that, given the present levels of photochemical pollutants, people living in Spanish cities are exposed to health risks derived from air pollution

Serviceability behaviour of fibre reinforced polymer reinforced concrete beams

El uso de materiales compuestos de matriz polimérica (FRP) emerge como alternativa al hormigón convencionalmente armado con acero debido a la mayor resistencia a la corrosión de dichos materiales. El presente estudio investiga el comportamiento en servicio de vigas de hormigón armadas con barras de FRP mediante un análisis teórico y experimental. Se presentan los resultados experimentales de veintiséis vigas de hormigón armadas con barras de material compuesto de fibra de vidrio (GFRP) y una armada con acero, todas ellas ensayadas a flexión de cuatro puntos. Los resultados experimentales son analizados y comparados con algunos de los modelos de predicción más significativos de flechas y fisuración, observándose, en general, una predicción adecuada del comportamiento experimental hasta cargas de servicio. El análisis de sección fisurada (CSA) estima la carga última con precisión, aunque se registra un incremento de la flecha experimental para cargas superiores a las de servicio. Esta diferencia se atribuye a la influencia de las deformaciones por esfuerzo cortante y se calcula experimentalmente. Se presentan los aspectos principales que influyen en los estados límites de servicio: tensiones de los materiales, ancho máximo de fisura y flecha máxima permitida. Se presenta una metodología para el diseño de dichos elementos bajo las condiciones de servicio. El procedimiento presentado permite optimizar las dimensiones de la sección respecto a metodologías más generales.