The allometry of non-employment. What can compositional data analysis tell us about labour market performance across the UK's regions?

The low levels of unemployment recorded in the UK in recent years are widely cited as evidence of the country’s improved economic performance, and the apparent convergence of unemployment rates across the country’s regions used to suggest that the longstanding divide in living standards between the relatively prosperous ‘south’ and the more depressed ‘north’ has been substantially narrowed. Dissenters from these conclusions have drawn attention to the greatly increased extent of non-employment (around a quarter of the UK’s working age population are not in employment) and the marked regional dimension in its distribution across the country. Amongst these dissenters it is generally agreed that non-employment is concentrated amongst older males previously employed in the now very much smaller ‘heavy’ industries (e.g. coal, steel, shipbuilding). This paper uses the tools of compositiona l data analysis to provide a much richer picture of non-employment and one which challenges the conventional analysis wisdom about UK labour market performance as well as the dissenters view of the nature of the problem. It is shown that, associated with the striking ‘north/south’ divide in nonemployment rates, there is a statistically significant relationship between the size of the non-employment rate and the composition of non-employment. Specifically, it is shown that the share of unemployment in non-employment is negatively correlated with the overall non-employment rate: in regions where the non-employment rate is high the share of unemployment is relatively low. So the unemployment rate is not a very reliable indicator of regional disparities in labour market performance. Even more importantly from a policy viewpoint, a significant positive relationship is found between the size of the non-employment rate and the share of those not employed through reason of sickness or disability and it seems (contrary to the dissenters) that this connection is just as strong for women as it is for men

A new distribution on the simplex containing the Dirichlet family

The Dirichlet family owes its privileged status within simplex distributions to easyness of interpretation and good mathematical properties. In particular, we recall fundamental properties for the analysis of compositional data such as closure under amalgamation and subcomposition. From a probabilistic point of view, it is characterised (uniquely) by a variety of independence relationships which makes it indisputably the reference model for expressing the non trivial idea of substantial independence for compositions. Indeed, its well known inadequacy as a general model for compositional data stems from such an independence structure together with the poorness of its parametrisation. In this paper a new class of distributions (called Flexible Dirichlet) capable of handling various dependence structures and containing the Dirichlet as a special case is presented. The new model exhibits a considerably richer parametrisation which, for example, allows to model the means and (part of) the variance-covariance matrix separately. Moreover, such a model preserves some good mathematical properties of the Dirichlet, i.e. closure under amalgamation and subcomposition with new parameters simply related to the parent composition parameters. Furthermore, the joint and conditional distributions of subcompositions and relative totals can be expressed as simple mixtures of two Flexible Dirichlet distributions. The basis generating the Flexible Dirichlet, though keeping compositional invariance, shows a dependence structure which allows various forms of partitional dependence to be contemplated by the model (e.g. non-neutrality, subcompositional dependence and subcompositional non-invariance), independence cases being identified by suitable parameter configurations. In particular, within this model substantial independence among subsets of components of the composition naturally occurs when the subsets have a Dirichlet distribution

La credibilidad del testimonio infantil ante supuestos de abuso sexual: indicadores psicosociales

La present tesi doctoral estudiarà la temàtica de la credibilitat del relat que els menors presumptament abusats expressen dels fets, en base a l'anàlisi del contingut del seu relat. Fins al moment, la prova que s'utilitza, anomenada CBCA és fonamentalment d'orientació cognitiva, desconsiderant del seu anàlisi, els possibles criteris psicosocials que els menors expressen. Així, la present tesi, a més d'estudiar la prova CBCA, proposa l'utilització d'indicadors psicosocials que, efectivament, són expressats en el relat dels presumptes fets i que, en base a l'anàlisi mètric pertinent, ens permeten presentar-los com a vàlids per a diferenciar relats creíbles, d'aquells relats inventats o falsejats. La part teòrica de la tesi, presenta un exhaustiu recull de les recerques més significatives sobre les següents temàtiques: la credibilitat, l'instrument CBCA, els factors que influeixen en el testimoni infantil i els indicadors psicosocials de credibilitat. La part empírica, en base a un disseny observacional-correlacional i amb una mostra de casos reals treballats a la seu de l'Equip d'Assesorament del Jutjats de Girona, durant els anys 2000-2001, presenta l'estudi i anàlisi del CBCA, criticant les limitacions importants que presenta aquest instrument i, naturalment, proposant l'incorporació dels indicadors psicosocials com a criteris per la diferenciació dels relats. Es realitza un complert anàlisi mètric i es comprova l'increment de la qualitat psicomètrica (fiabilitat, validesa, discriminació de ítems) del nou instrument proposat amb els indicadors psicosocials presentats: el secret, relació dependent-envolvent, progressió en l'abús, normes de conducta, símptomes psicològics, favors i regals.