Time-series regression models to study the short-term effects of environmental factors on health

Time series regression models are especially suitable in epidemiology for evaluating short-term effects of time-varying exposures on health. The problem is that potential for confounding in time series regression is very high. Thus, it is important that trend and seasonality are properly accounted for. Our paper reviews the statistical models commonly used in time-series regression methods, specially allowing for serial correlation, make them potentially useful for selected epidemiological purposes. In particular, we discuss the use of time-series regression for counts using a wide range Generalised Linear Models as well as Generalised Additive Models. In addition, recently critical points in using statistical software for GAM were stressed, and reanalyses of time series data on air pollution and health were performed in order to update already published. Applications are offered through an example on the relationship between asthma emergency admissions and photochemical air pollutants

Regression analysis of compositional data when both the dependent variable and independent variable are components

It is well known that regression analyses involving compositional data need special attention because the data are not of full rank. For a regression analysis where both the dependent and independent variable are components we propose a transformation of the components emphasizing their role as dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression can be performed on the transformed components. The regression line can be depicted in a ternary diagram facilitating the interpretation of the analysis in terms of components. An exemple with time-budgets illustrates the method and the graphical features

An alternative method for dating unknown tephras based on a segmented regression model

In CoDaWork’05, we presented an application of discriminant function analysis (DFA) to 4 different compositional datasets and modelled the first canonical variable using a segmented regression model solely based on an observation about the scatter plots. In this paper, multiple linear regressions are applied to different datasets to confirm the validity of our proposed model. In addition to dating the unknown tephras by calibration as discussed previously, another method of mapping the unknown tephras into samples of the reference set or missing samples in between consecutive reference samples is proposed. The application of these methodologies is demonstrated with both simulated and real datasets. This new proposed methodology provides an alternative, more acceptable approach for geologists as their focus is on mapping the unknown tephra with relevant eruptive events rather than estimating the age of unknown tephra. Kew words: Tephrochronology; Segmented regression

Regression periods in infancy. A case study from Catalonia.

Based on Rijt-Plooij and Plooij’s (1992) research on emergence of regression periods in the first two years of life, the presence of such periods in a group of 18 babies (10 boys and 8 girls, aged between 3 weeks and 14 months) from a Catalonian population was analyzed. The measurements were a questionnaire filled in by the infants’ mothers, a semi-structured weekly tape-recorded interview, and observations in their homes. The procedure and the instruments used in the project follow those proposed by Rijt-Plooij and Plooij. Our results confirm the existence of the regression periods in the first year of children’s life. Inter-coder agreement for trained coders was 78.2% and within-coder agreement was 90.1 %. In the discussion, the possible meaning and relevance of regression periods in order to understand development from a psychobiological and social framework is commented upon

Irrigation performance and gross water productivity in furrow-irrigated ornamental tree production

In the ornamental plant production region of Girona (Spain), which is one of the largest of its kind in southern Europe, most of the surface is irrigated using wide blocked-end furrows. The objectives of this paper were: (1) to evaluate the irrigation scheduling methods used by ornamental plant producers; (2) to analyse different scenarios in order to assess how they affect irrigation performance; (3) to evaluate the risk of deep percolation; and (4) to calculate gross water productivity. A two-year study in a representative commercial field, planted with Prunus cerasifera ‘Nigra’, was carried out. The irrigation dose applied by the farmers was slightly smaller than the required water dose estimated by the use of two different methods: the first based on soil water content, and the second based on evapotranspiration. Distribution uniformity and application efficiency were high, with mean values above 87%. Soil water content measurements revealed that even at the end of the furrow, where the infiltrated water depth was greatest, more than 90% of the infiltrated water was retained in the shallowest 40 cm of the soil; accordingly, the risk of water loss due to deep percolation was minimal. Gross water productivity for ornamental tree production was € 11.70 m–3, approximately 20 times higher than that obtained with maize in the same region