Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Public and student awareness science: recreational science as a catalyst

When discussing the traditional and new missions of higher education (1996 Report to UNESCO of the International Commission on Education for the 21st Century) Jacques Delors stated that "Excessive attraction to social sciences has broken equilibrium of available graduates for workforce, thus causing doubts of graduates and employers on the quality of knowledge provided by higher education". Likewise, when discussing the progress of science and technology, the 1998 UNESCO World Conference on Higher Education concluded that "Another challenge concerts the latest advancements of Science, the sine qua non of sustainable development"; and that “with Information Technology, the unavoidable invasion of virtual reality has increased the distance between industrial and developing countries". Recreational Science has a long tradition all over the Educational World; it aims to show the basic aspects of Science, aims to entertain, and aims to induce thinking. Until a few years ago, this field of knowledge consisted of a few books, a few kits and other classical (yet innovative) ways to popularize the knowledge of Nature and the laws governing it. In Spain, the interest for recreational science has increased in the last years. First, new recreational books are being published and found in bookstores. Second the number of Science-related museums and exhibits is increasing. And third, new television shows are produced and new short science-based, superficial sketches are found in variety programs. However, actual programs in Spanish television dealing seriously with Science are scarce. Recreational Science, especially that related to physical phenomena like light or motion, is generally found at Science Museums because special equipment is required. On the contrary, Science related mathematics, quizzes and puzzles use to gather into books, e.g. the extensive collections by Martin Gardner. However, lately Science podcasts have entered the field of science communication. Not only traditional science journals and television channels are providing audio and video podcasts, but new websites deal exclusively with science podcasts, in particular on Recreational Science. In this communication we discuss the above mentioned trends and show our experience in the last two years in participating at Science Fairs and university-sponsored events to attract students to science and technology careers. We show a combination of real examples (e.g., mathemagic), imagination, use of information technology, and use of social networks. We present as well an experience on designing a computational, interactive tool to promote chemistry among high school, prospective students using computers ("Dancing with Bionanomolecules"). Like the concepts related to Web 2.0, it has been already proposed that a new framework for communication of science is emerging, i.e., Science Communication 2.0, where people and institutions develop new innovative ways to explain science topics to diverse publics – and where Recreational Science is likely to play a leading role

Model-based objects recognition in industrial environments for autonomous vehicles control

Behavior-based navigation of autonomous vehicles requires the recognition of the navigable areas and the potential obstacles. In this paper we describe a model-based objects recognition system which is part of an image interpretation system intended to assist the navigation of autonomous vehicles that operate in industrial environments. The recognition system integrates color, shape and texture information together with the location of the vanishing point. The recognition process starts from some prior scene knowledge, that is, a generic model of the expected scene and the potential objects. The recognition system constitutes an approach where different low-level vision techniques extract a multitude of image descriptors which are then analyzed using a rule-based reasoning system to interpret the image content. This system has been implemented using a rule-based cooperative expert system

Model-based objects recognition in man-made environments

We describe a model-based objects recognition system which is part of an image interpretation system intended to assist autonomous vehicles navigation. The system is intended to operate in man-made environments. Behavior-based navigation of autonomous vehicles involves the recognition of navigable areas and the potential obstacles. The recognition system integrates color, shape and texture information together with the location of the vanishing point. The recognition process starts from some prior scene knowledge, that is, a generic model of the expected scene and the potential objects. The recognition system constitutes an approach where different low-level vision techniques extract a multitude of image descriptors which are then analyzed using a rule-based reasoning system to interpret the image content. This system has been implemented using CEES, the C++ embedded expert system shell developed in the Systems Engineering and Automatic Control Laboratory (University of Girona) as a specific rule-based problem solving tool. It has been especially conceived for supporting cooperative expert systems, and uses the object oriented programming paradigm

Embedding objects into Matlab/Simulink for process supervision

This paper introduces how artificial intelligence technologies can be integrated into a known computer aided control system design (CACSD) framework, Matlab/Simulink, using an object oriented approach. The aim is to build a framework to aid supervisory systems analysis, design and implementation. The idea is to take advantage of an existing CACSD framework, Matlab/Simulink, so that engineers can proceed: first to design a control system, and then to design a straightforward supervisory system of the control system in the same framework. Thus, expert systems and qualitative reasoning tools are incorporated into this popular CACSD framework to develop a computer aided supervisory system design (CASSD) framework. Object-variables an introduced into Matlab/Simulink for sharing information between tools