Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Entrepreneurship, ties and relational networks: the case of a public-private cross-border tourism product

The thesis aims to understand the processes of entrepreneurship that try to create businesses or products with a high degree of complexity. This complexity comes from the fact that these products or initiatives can only be viable with the concurrence of a large number of heterogeneous actors (public, private, from different regions, etc..) which interact in a relational context. A case with these characteristics is the Camí dels Bons Homes. The thesis analyzes the evolution of the relational network from the point of view of its structure and content of its links. The results show and explain the observed changes in the network structure and the changes in the ties content. This analysis of the content of ties contributes to a new systematization and operationalization of ties’ content. Moreover this analysis takes in account negative ties, a less discussed issue in literature.