Front spreading in population dynamic models. Theory and application to the Neolithic transition

This thesis presents population dynamics models that can be applied to predict the rate of spread of the Neolithic transition (change from hunter-gathering to farming economics) across the European continent, which took place about 9000 to 5000 years ago. The first models in this thesis provide predictions at a continental scale. We develop population dynamics models with explicit kernels and apply realistic data. We also derive a new time-delayed reaction-diffusion equation which yields speeds about a 10% slower than previous models. We also deal with a regional variability: the slowdown of the Neolithic front when reaching the North of Europe. We develop simple reaction-diffusion models that can predict the measured speeds in terms of the non-homogeneous distribution of pre-Neolithic (Mesolithic) population in Europe, which were present in higher densities at the North of the continent. Such models can explain the observed speeds.

A proposal for the diagnosis of uncertain dynamic systems based on interval models

The performance of a model-based diagnosis system could be affected by several uncertainty sources, such as,model errors,uncertainty in measurements, and disturbances. This uncertainty can be handled by mean of interval models.The aim of this thesis is to propose a methodology for fault detection, isolation and identification based on interval models. The methodology includes some algorithms to obtain in an automatic way the symbolic expression of the residual generators enhancing the structural isolability of the faults, in order to design the fault detection tests. These algorithms are based on the structural model of the system. The stages of fault detection, isolation, and identification are stated as constraint satisfaction problems in continuous domains and solved by means of interval based consistency techniques. The qualitative fault isolation is enhanced by a reasoning in which the signs of the symptoms are derived from analytical redundancy relations or bond graph models of the system. An initial and empirical analysis regarding the differences between interval-based and statistical-based techniques is presented in this thesis. The performance and efficiency of the contributions are illustrated through several application examples, covering different levels of complexity.

Dissolution of Dynamic Electronic Institutions, a first approach: Relevant factors and causes

In the context of the digital business ecosystems, small organizations cooperate between them in order to achieve common goals or offer new services for expanding their markets. There are different approaches for these cooperation models such as virtual enterprises, virtual organizations or dynamic electronic institutions which in their lifecycle have in common a dissolution phase. However this phase has not been studied deeply in the current literature and it lacks formalization. In this paper a first approach for achieving and managing the dissolution phase is proposed, as well as a CBR process in order to support it in a multi-agent system

Probabilistic models to assist maintenance of multiple instruments

The paper discusses maintenance challenges of organisations with a huge number of devices and proposes the use of probabilistic models to assist monitoring and maintenance planning. The proposal assumes connectivity of instruments to report relevant features for monitoring. Also, the existence of enough historical registers with diagnosed breakdowns is required to make probabilistic models reliable and useful for predictive maintenance strategies based on them. Regular Markov models based on estimated failure and repair rates are proposed to calculate the availability of the instruments and Dynamic Bayesian Networks are proposed to model cause-effect relationships to trigger predictive maintenance services based on the influence between observed features and previously documented diagnostics

Applications of hydrodynamic and water quality models to the Sau and Boadella Reservoirs

Applicaciò d'un model de hydrodinàmica i de qualitat de l'aigua als embassaments de Sau i Boadella

Application of modal interval analysis to the simulation of the behaviour of dynamic systems with uncertain parameters

Els models matemàtics quantitatius són simplificacions de la realitat i per tant el comportament obtingut per simulació d'aquests models difereix dels reals. L'ús de models quantitatius complexes no és una solució perquè en la majoria dels casos hi ha alguna incertesa en el sistema real que no pot ser representada amb aquests models. Una forma de representar aquesta incertesa és mitjançant models qualitatius o semiqualitatius. Un model d'aquest tipus de fet representa un conjunt de models. La simulació del comportament de models quantitatius genera una trajectòria en el temps per a cada variable de sortida. Aquest no pot ser el resultat de la simulació d'un conjunt de models. Una forma de representar el comportament en aquest cas és mitjançant envolupants. L'envolupant exacta és complete, és a dir, inclou tots els possibles comportaments del model, i correcta, és a dir, tots els punts dins de l'envolupant pertanyen a la sortida de, com a mínim, una instància del model. La generació d'una envolupant així normalment és una tasca molt dura que es pot abordar, per exemple, mitjançant algorismes d'optimització global o comprovació de consistència. Per aquesta raó, en molts casos s'obtenen aproximacions a l'envolupant exacta. Una aproximació completa però no correcta a l'envolupant exacta és una envolupant sobredimensionada, mentre que una envolupant correcta però no completa és subdimensionada. Aquestes propietats s'han estudiat per diferents simuladors per a sistemes incerts.