Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Classification of textures seen from different distances and under varying illumination direction

Changes in the angle of illumination incident upon a 3D surface texture can significantly alter its appearance, implying variations in the image texture. These texture variations produce displacements of class members in the feature space, increasing the failure rates of texture classifiers. To avoid this problem, a model-based texture recognition system which classifies textures seen from different distances and under different illumination directions is presented in this paper. The system works on the basis of a surface model obtained by means of 4-source colour photometric stereo, used to generate 2D image textures under different illumination directions. The recognition system combines coocurrence matrices for feature extraction with a Nearest Neighbour classifier. Moreover, the recognition allows one to guess the approximate direction of the illumination used to capture the test image

Automatic classification of breast density

A recent trend in digital mammography is computer-aided diagnosis systems, which are computerised tools designed to assist radiologists. Most of these systems are used for the automatic detection of abnormalities. However, recent studies have shown that their sensitivity is significantly decreased as the density of the breast increases. This dependence is method specific. In this paper we propose a new approach to the classification of mammographic images according to their breast parenchymal density. Our classification uses information extracted from segmentation results and is based on the underlying breast tissue texture. Classification performance was based on a large set of digitised mammograms. Evaluation involves different classifiers and uses a leave-one-out methodology. Results demonstrate the feasibility of estimating breast density using image processing and analysis techniques

A new approach to the classification of mammographic masses and normal breast tissue

A new approach to mammographic mass detection is presented in this paper. Although different algorithms have been proposed for such a task, most of them are application dependent. In contrast, our approach makes use of a kindred topic in computer vision adapted to our particular problem. In this sense, we translate the eigenfaces approach for face detection/classification problems to a mass detection. Two different databases were used to show the robustness of the approach. The first one consisted on a set of 160 regions of interest (RoIs) extracted from the MIAS database, being 40 of them with confirmed masses and the rest normal tissue. The second set of RoIs was extracted from the DDSM database, and contained 196 RoIs containing masses and 392 with normal, but suspicious regions. Initial results demonstrate the feasibility of using such approach with performances comparable to other algorithms, with the advantage of being a more general, simple and cost-effective approach

Classification of sags according to their origin based on the waveform similarity

A statistical method for classification of sags their origin downstream or upstream from the recording point is proposed in this work. The goal is to obtain a statistical model using the sag waveforms useful to characterise one type of sags and to discriminate them from the other type. This model is built on the basis of multi-way principal component analysis an later used to project the available registers in a new space with lower dimension. Thus, a case base of diagnosed sags is built in the projection space. Finally classification is done by comparing new sags against the existing in the case base. Similarity is defined in the projection space using a combination of distances to recover the nearest neighbours to the new sag. Finally the method assigns the origin of the new sag according to the origin of their neighbours