Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

El plan de lengua y cohesión social en Catañunya: primeros datos de una investigación = Language and Social Cohesion Plan in Catalonia: Initial research data

Los programas de inmersión lingüística han constituido y constituyen dentro del Sistema Educativo catalán la principal forma para que el alumnado de lengua familiar no-catalana aprenda una nueva lengua, el catalán, sin que, en su proceso de aprendizaje, vea mermado ni el desarrollo de su propia lengua ni su rendimiento académico. El éxito de la inmersión lingüística en las décadas anteriores ha sido frecuentemente utilizado como uno de los argumentos orientativos para justificar la política lingüística que se sigue en la escolarización de la infancia extranjera. Sin embargo, los resultados obtenidos por investigaciones recientes parece que no avalan empíricamente dicho argumento. Este artículo analiza dichos resultados y expone, a partir del Plan para la Lengua y Cohesión Social puesto en marcha por el Departamento de Educación de la Generalitat de Cataluña, cuáles son los retos que se presentan a su Sistema Educativo dentro del nuevo marco que supone el aumento de la diversidad cultural y lingüística en la actual sociedad catalana

El plan para la lengua y la cohesión social (Plan LIC) del gobierno de Cataluña = The language and social cohesion plan from the Government of Catalonia

El Plan para la Lengua y la Cohesión Social es un proyecto estratégico del gobierno de Cataluña para la mejora de la educación. Sus tres objetivos fundamentales son: consolidar la lengua catalana, fomentar la educación intercultural y promover la igualdad de oportunidades. Este artículo explica el origen y las finalidades del Plan, sus ejes estratégicos y emblemáticos, y los contextos socioculturales y políticos en los que se plantea y desarrolla

Social Networking Sites as Technology Enhanced Learning Communities towards autonomous language learning

The following contribution pretends to cope with the demands of a globalised, post-modern environment through the design and implementation of an online international project where an SNS is used in order to join English as Second Language (ESL) students from different parts of the world. The design of the project appears around the implementation of the Bologna process in the Faculty of Education from the University of Girona where the basic prerequisite of all students to acquire English at the level B1 of the Common European Portfolio makes English a compulsory competence for communication among its higher education candidates in order to develop in the world. Together with the University of Girona, there is the International Educational and Resources Network (iEARN) which promotes the participation of schools around the world in online international projects