Alternative ways to estimate change points in multinomial sequences. An application to an authorship attribution problem

The statistical analysis of literary style is the part of stylometry that compares measurable characteristics in a text that are rarely controlled by the author, with those in other texts. When the goal is to settle authorship questions, these characteristics should relate to the author’s style and not to the genre, epoch or editor, and they should be such that their variation between authors is larger than the variation within comparable texts from the same author. For an overview of the literature on stylometry and some of the techniques involved, see for example Mosteller and Wallace (1964, 82), Herdan (1964), Morton (1978), Holmes (1985), Oakes (1998) or Lebart, Salem and Berry (1998). Tirant lo Blanc, a chivalry book, is the main work in catalan literature and it was hailed to be “the best book of its kind in the world” by Cervantes in Don Quixote. Considered by writters like Vargas Llosa or Damaso Alonso to be the first modern novel in Europe, it has been translated several times into Spanish, Italian and French, with modern English translations by Rosenthal (1996) and La Fontaine (1993). The main body of this book was written between 1460 and 1465, but it was not printed until 1490. There is an intense and long lasting debate around its authorship sprouting from its first edition, where its introduction states that the whole book is the work of Martorell (1413?-1468), while at the end it is stated that the last one fourth of the book is by Galba (?-1490), after the death of Martorell. Some of the authors that support the theory of single authorship are Riquer (1990), Chiner (1993) and Badia (1993), while some of those supporting the double authorship are Riquer (1947), Coromines (1956) and Ferrando (1995). For an overview of this debate, see Riquer (1990). Neither of the two candidate authors left any text comparable to the one under study, and therefore discriminant analysis can not be used to help classify chapters by author. By using sample texts encompassing about ten percent of the book, and looking at word length and at the use of 44 conjunctions, prepositions and articles, Ginebra and Cabos (1998) detect heterogeneities that might indicate the existence of two authors. By analyzing the diversity of the vocabulary, Riba and Ginebra (2000) estimates that stylistic boundary to be near chapter 383. Following the lead of the extensive literature, this paper looks into word length, the use of the most frequent words and into the use of vowels in each chapter of the book. Given that the features selected are categorical, that leads to three contingency tables of ordered rows and therefore to three sequences of multinomial observations. Section 2 explores these sequences graphically, observing a clear shift in their distribution. Section 3 describes the problem of the estimation of a suden change-point in those sequences, in the following sections we propose various ways to estimate change-points in multinomial sequences; the method in section 4 involves fitting models for polytomous data, the one in Section 5 fits gamma models onto the sequence of Chi-square distances between each row profiles and the average profile, the one in Section 6 fits models onto the sequence of values taken by the first component of the correspondence analysis as well as onto sequences of other summary measures like the average word length. In Section 7 we fit models onto the marginal binomial sequences to identify the features that distinguish the chapters before and after that boundary. Most methods rely heavily on the use of generalized linear models

Refinement criteria for global illumination using convex funcions

In several computer graphics areas, a refinement criterion is often needed to decide whether to go on or to stop sampling a signal. When the sampled values are homogeneous enough, we assume that they represent the signal fairly well and we do not need further refinement, otherwise more samples are required, possibly with adaptive subdivision of the domain. For this purpose, a criterion which is very sensitive to variability is necessary. In this paper, we present a family of discrimination measures, the f-divergences, meeting this requirement. These convex functions have been well studied and successfully applied to image processing and several areas of engineering. Two applications to global illumination are shown: oracles for hierarchical radiosity and criteria for adaptive refinement in ray-tracing. We obtain significantly better results than with classic criteria, showing that f-divergences are worth further investigation in computer graphics. Also a discrimination measure based on entropy of the samples for refinement in ray-tracing is introduced. The recursive decomposition of entropy provides us with a natural method to deal with the adaptive subdivision of the sampling region

Validation of order rank scales based on compositional data analysis: a proposal

Usually, psychometricians apply classical factorial analysis to evaluate construct validity of order rank scales. Nevertheless, these scales have particular characteristics that must be taken into account: total scores and rank are highly relevant

Searching for consensus in ahp-group decision making. A bayesian perspective

This paper sets out to identify the initial positions of the different decision makers who intervene in a group decision making process with a reduced number of actors, and to establish possible consensus paths between these actors. As a methodological support, it employs one of the most widely-known multicriteria decision techniques, namely, the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Assuming that the judgements elicited by the decision makers follow the so-called multiplicative model (Crawford and Williams, 1985; Altuzarra et al., 1997; Laininen and Hämäläinen, 2003) with log-normal errors and unknown variance, a Bayesian approach is used in the estimation of the relative priorities of the alternatives being compared. These priorities, estimated by way of the median of the posterior distribution and normalised in a distributive manner (priorities add up to one), are a clear example of compositional data that will be used in the search for consensus between the actors involved in the resolution of the problem through the use of Multidimensional Scaling tools

Compositional data analysis of vote shares in the 2001 Australian Federal election

First application of compositional data analysis techniques to Australian election data

Assessing the Precision of Compositional Data in a Stratified Double Stage Cluster Sample: Application to the Swiss Earnings Structure Survey

Precision of released figures is not only an important quality feature of official statistics, it is also essential for a good understanding of the data. In this paper we show a case study of how precision could be conveyed if the multivariate nature of data has to be taken into account. In the official release of the Swiss earnings structure survey, the total salary is broken down into several wage components. We follow Aitchison's approach for the analysis of compositional data, which is based on logratios of components. We first present diferent multivariate analyses of the compositional data whereby the wage components are broken down by economic activity classes. Then we propose a number of ways to assess precision

Group preference structures in AHP–group decision making

This paper presents a procedure that allows us to determine the preference structures (PS) associated to each of the different groups of actors that can be identified in a group decision making problem with a large number of individuals. To that end, it makes use of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) (Saaty, 1980) as the technique to solve discrete multicriteria decision making problems. This technique permits the resolution of multicriteria, multienvironment and multiactor problems in which subjective aspects and uncertainty have been incorporated into the model, constructing ratio scales corresponding to the priorities relative to the elements being compared, normalised in a distributive manner (wi = 1). On the basis of the individuals��� priorities we identify different clusters for the decision makers and, for each of these, the associated preference structure using, to that end, tools analogous to those of Multidimensional Scaling. The resulting PS will be employed to extract knowledge for the subsequent negotiation processes and, should it be necessary, to determine the relative importance of the alternatives being compared using anyone of the existing procedures

Regression analysis of compositional data when both the dependent variable and independent variable are components

It is well known that regression analyses involving compositional data need special attention because the data are not of full rank. For a regression analysis where both the dependent and independent variable are components we propose a transformation of the components emphasizing their role as dependent and independent variables. A simple linear regression can be performed on the transformed components. The regression line can be depicted in a ternary diagram facilitating the interpretation of the analysis in terms of components. An exemple with time-budgets illustrates the method and the graphical features

Interactions between grain size and composition of sediments: two examples

Two contrasting case studies of sediment and detrital mineral composition are investigated in order to outline interactions between chemical composition and grain size. Modern glacial sediments exhibit a strong dependence of the two parameters due to the preferential enrichment of mafic minerals, especially biotite, in the fine-grained fractions. On the other hand, the composition of detrital heavy minerals (here: rutile) appears to be not systematically related to grain-size, but is strongly controlled by location, i.e. the petrology of the source rocks of detrital grains. This supports the use of rutile as a well-suited tracer mineral for provenance studies. The results further suggest that (i) interpretations derived from whole-rock sediment geochemistry should be flanked by grain-size observations, and (ii) a more sound statistical evaluation of these interactions require the development of new tailor-made statistical tools to deal with such so-called two-way compositions

Comparison studies of tin deposits (Priamurye, Russia) using the Aitchison’s methodology

A study of tin deposits from Priamurye (Russia) is performed to analyze the differences between them based on their origin and also on commercial criteria. A particular analysis based on their vertical zonality is also given for samples from Solnechnoe deposit. All the statistical analysis are made on the subcomposition formed by seven trace elements in cassiterite (In, Sc, Be, W, Nb, Ti and V) using the Aitchison’ methodology of analysis of compositional data

The chemical variability at the surface of Mars: implications for exogenic processes

The chemical composition of sediments and rocks, as well as their distribution at the Martian surface, represent a long term archive of processes, which have formed the planetary surface. A survey of chemical compositions by means of Compositional Data Analysis represents a valuable tool to extract direct evidence for weathering processes and allows to quantify weathering and sedimentation rates. clr-biplot techniques are applied for visualization of chemical relationships across the surface (“chemical maps���). The variability among individual suites of data is further analyzed by means of clr-PCA, in order to extract chemical alteration vectors between fresh rocks and their crusts and for an assessment of different source reservoirs accessible to soil formation. Both techniques are applied to elucidate the influence of remote weathering by combined analysis of several soil forming branches. Vector analysis in the Simplex provides the opportunity to study atmosphere surface interactions, including the role and composition of volcanic gases

The single principle of compositional data analysis, continuing fallacies, confusions and misunderstandings and some suggested remedies

In any discipline, where uncertainty and variability are present, it is important to have principles which are accepted as inviolate and which should therefore drive statistical modelling, statistical analysis of data and any inferences from such an analysis. Despite the fact that two such principles have existed over the last two decades and from these a sensible, meaningful methodology has been developed for the statistical analysis of compositional data, the application of inappropriate and/or meaningless methods persists in many areas of application. This paper identifies at least ten common fallacies and confusions in compositional data analysis with illustrative examples and provides readers with necessary, and hopefully sufficient, arguments to persuade the culprits why and how they should amend their ways

Application of discriminant function analysis and change-point problem in dating volcanic ashes

The application of Discriminant function analysis (DFA) is not a new idea in the study of tephrochrology. In this paper, DFA is applied to compositional datasets of two different types of tephras from Mountain Ruapehu in New Zealand and Mountain Rainier in USA. The canonical variables from the analysis are further investigated with a statistical methodology of change-point problems in order to gain a better understanding of the change in compositional pattern over time. Finally, a special case of segmented regression has been proposed to model both the time of change and the change in pattern. This model can be used to estimate the age for the unknown tephras using Bayesian statistical calibration

Statistical Analysis of Eco-Toxicologic Data of Mammals from a Polluted Area

Several eco-toxicological studies have shown that insectivorous mammals, due to their feeding habits, easily accumulate high amounts of pollutants in relation to other mammal species. To assess the bio-accumulation levels of toxic metals and their in°uence on essential metals, we quantified the concentration of 19 elements (Ca, K, Fe, B, P, S, Na, Al, Zn, Ba, Rb, Sr, Cu, Mn, Hg, Cd, Mo, Cr and Pb) in bones of 105 greater white-toothed shrews (Crocidura russula) from a polluted (Ebro Delta) and a control (Medas Islands) area. Since chemical contents of a bio-indicator are mainly compositional data, conventional statistical analyses currently used in eco-toxicology can give misleading results. Therefore, to improve the interpretation of the data obtained, we used statistical techniques for compositional data analysis to define groups of metals and to evaluate the relationships between them, from an inter-population viewpoint. Hypothesis testing on the adequate balance-coordinates allow us to confirm intuition based hypothesis and some previous results. The main statistical goal was to test equal means of balance-coordinates for the two defined populations. After checking normality, one-way ANOVA or Mann-Whitney tests were carried out for the inter-group balances

Inference of distributional parameters from compositional samples containing nondetects

Low concentrations of elements in geochemical analyses have the peculiarity of being compositional data and, for a given level of significance, are likely to be beyond the capabilities of laboratories to distinguish between minute concentrations and complete absence, thus preventing laboratories from reporting extremely low concentrations of the analyte. Instead, what is reported is the detection limit, which is the minimum concentration that conclusively differentiates between presence and absence of the element. A spatially distributed exhaustive sample is employed in this study to generate unbiased sub-samples, which are further censored to observe the effect that different detection limits and sample sizes have on the inference of population distributions starting from geochemical analyses having specimens below detection limit (nondetects). The isometric logratio transformation is used to convert the compositional data in the simplex to samples in real space, thus allowing the practitioner to properly borrow from the large source of statistical techniques valid only in real space. The bootstrap method is used to numerically investigate the reliability of inferring several distributional parameters employing different forms of imputation for the censored data. The case study illustrates that, in general, best results are obtained when imputations are made using the distribution best fitting the readings above detection limit and exposes the problems of other more widely used practices. When the sample is spatially correlated, it is necessary to combine the bootstrap with stochastic simulation