Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Nitrogen and carbon dynamics in grassland soils and plants after application of digestate

A better understanding of effects after digestate application on plant community, soil microbial community as well as nutrient and carbon dynamics is crucial for a sustainable grassland management and the prevention of species and functional diversity loss. The specific research objectives of the thesis were: (i) to investigate effects after digestate application on grass species and soil microbial community, especially focussing on nitrogen dynamic in the plant-soil system and to examine the suitability of the digestate from the “integrated generation of solid fuel and biogas from biomass” (IFBB) system as fertilizer (Chapter 3). (ii) to investigate the relationship between plant community and functionality of soil microbial community of extensively managed meadows, taking into account temporal variations during the vegetation period and abiotic soil conditions (Chapter 4). (iii) to investigate the suitability of IFBB-concept implementation as grassland conservation measure for meadows and possible associated effects of IFBB digestate application on plant and soil microbial community as well as soil microbial substrate utilization and catabolic evenness (Chapter 5). Taken together the results indicate that the digestate generated during the IFBB process stands out from digestates of conventional whole crop digestion on the basis of higher nitrogen use efficiency and that it is useful for increasing harvestable biomass and the nitrogen content of the biomass, especially of L. perenne, which is a common species of intensively used grasslands. Further, a medium application rate of IFBB digestate (50% of nitrogen removed with harvested biomass, corresponding to 30 50 kg N ha-1 a-1) may be a possibility for conservation management of different meadows without changing the functional above- and belowground characteristic of the grasslands, thereby offering an ecologically worthwhile alternative to mulching. Overall, the soil microbial biomass and catabolic performance under planted soil was marginally affected by digestate application but rather by soil properties and partly by grassland species and legume occurrence. The investigated extensively managed meadows revealed a high soil catabolic evenness, which was resilient to medium IFBB application rate after a three-year period of application.