Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Neuartige Verfahren für die Überwachung und Diagnose von aktiv magnetgelagerten rotierenden Maschinen

Mit aktiven Magnetlagern ist es möglich, rotierende Körper durch magnetische Felder berührungsfrei zu lagern. Systembedingt sind bei aktiv magnetgelagerten Maschinen wesentliche Signale ohne zusätzlichen Aufwand an Messtechnik für Diagnoseaufgaben verfügbar. In der Arbeit wird ein Konzept entwickelt, das durch Verwendung der systeminhärenten Signale eine Diagnose magnetgelagerter rotierender Maschinen ermöglicht und somit neben einer kontinuierlichen Anlagenüberwachung eine schnelle Bewertung des Anlagenzustandes gestattet. Fehler können rechtzeitig und ursächlich in Art und Größe erkannt und entsprechende Gegenmaßnahmen eingeleitet werden. Anhand der erfassten Signale geschieht die Gewinnung von Merkmalen mit signal- und modellgestützten Verfahren. Für den Magnetlagerregelkreis erfolgen Untersuchungen zum Einsatz modellgestützter Parameteridentifikationsverfahren, deren Verwendbarkeit wird bei der Diagnose am Regler und Leistungsverstärker nachgewiesen. Unter Nutzung von Simulationsmodellen sowie durch Experimente an Versuchsständen werden die Merkmalsverläufe im normalen Referenzzustand und bei auftretenden Fehlern aufgenommen und die Ergebnisse in einer Wissensbasis abgelegt. Diese dient als Grundlage zur Festlegung von Grenzwerten und Regeln für die Überwachung des Systems und zur Erstellung wissensbasierter Diagnosemodelle. Bei der Überwachung werden die Merkmalsausprägungen auf das Überschreiten von Grenzwerten überprüft, Informationen über erkannte Fehler und Betriebszustände gebildet sowie gegebenenfalls Alarmmeldungen ausgegeben. Sich langsam anbahnende Fehler können durch die Berechnung der Merkmalstrends mit Hilfe der Regressionsanalyse erkannt werden. Über die bisher bei aktiven Magnetlagern übliche Überwachung von Grenzwerten hinaus erfolgt bei der Fehlerdiagnose eine Verknüpfung der extrahierten Merkmale zur Identifizierung und Lokalisierung auftretender Fehler. Die Diagnose geschieht mittels regelbasierter Fuzzy-Logik, dies gestattet die Einbeziehung von linguistischen Aussagen in Form von Expertenwissen sowie die Berücksichtigung von Unbestimmtheiten und ermöglicht damit eine Diagnose komplexer Systeme. Für Aktor-, Sensor- und Reglerfehler im Magnetlagerregelkreis sowie Fehler durch externe Kräfte und Unwuchten werden Diagnosemodelle erstellt und verifiziert. Es erfolgt der Nachweis, dass das entwickelte Diagnosekonzept mit beherrschbarem Rechenaufwand korrekte Diagnoseaussagen liefert. Durch Kaskadierung von Fuzzy-Logik-Modulen wird die Transparenz des Regelwerks gewahrt und die Abarbeitung der Regeln optimiert. Endresultat ist ein neuartiges hybrides Diagnosekonzept, welches signal- und modellgestützte Verfahren der Merkmalsgewinnung mit wissensbasierten Methoden der Fehlerdiagnose kombiniert. Das entwickelte Diagnosekonzept ist für die Anpassung an unterschiedliche Anforderungen und Anwendungen bei rotierenden Maschinen konzipiert.

Evolving Distributed Algorithms with Genetic Programming

Distributed systems are one of the most vital components of the economy. The most prominent example is probably the internet, a constituent element of our knowledge society. During the recent years, the number of novel network types has steadily increased. Amongst others, sensor networks, distributed systems composed of tiny computational devices with scarce resources, have emerged. The further development and heterogeneous connection of such systems imposes new requirements on the software development process. Mobile and wireless networks, for instance, have to organize themselves autonomously and must be able to react to changes in the environment and to failing nodes alike. Researching new approaches for the design of distributed algorithms may lead to methods with which these requirements can be met efficiently. In this thesis, one such method is developed, tested, and discussed in respect of its practical utility. Our new design approach for distributed algorithms is based on Genetic Programming, a member of the family of evolutionary algorithms. Evolutionary algorithms are metaheuristic optimization methods which copy principles from natural evolution. They use a population of solution candidates which they try to refine step by step in order to attain optimal values for predefined objective functions. The synthesis of an algorithm with our approach starts with an analysis step in which the wanted global behavior of the distributed system is specified. From this specification, objective functions are derived which steer a Genetic Programming process where the solution candidates are distributed programs. The objective functions rate how close these programs approximate the goal behavior in multiple randomized network simulations. The evolutionary process step by step selects the most promising solution candidates and modifies and combines them with mutation and crossover operators. This way, a description of the global behavior of a distributed system is translated automatically to programs which, if executed locally on the nodes of the system, exhibit this behavior. In our work, we test six different ways for representing distributed programs, comprising adaptations and extensions of well-known Genetic Programming methods (SGP, eSGP, and LGP), one bio-inspired approach (Fraglets), and two new program representations called Rule-based Genetic Programming (RBGP, eRBGP) designed by us. We breed programs in these representations for three well-known example problems in distributed systems: election algorithms, the distributed mutual exclusion at a critical section, and the distributed computation of the greatest common divisor of a set of numbers. Synthesizing distributed programs the evolutionary way does not necessarily lead to the envisaged results. In a detailed analysis, we discuss the problematic features which make this form of Genetic Programming particularly hard. The two Rule-based Genetic Programming approaches have been developed especially in order to mitigate these difficulties. In our experiments, at least one of them (eRBGP) turned out to be a very efficient approach and in most cases, was superior to the other representations.

Fliesslochformen und Gewindefurchen in dünne Bleche und Rohre aus Kupfer und Kupferlegierungen

This thesis in Thermal Flow Drilling and Flowtap in thin metal sheet and pipes of copper and copper alloys had as objectives to know the comportment of copper and copper alloys sheet metal during the Thermal Flow Drill processes with normal tools, to know the best Speed and Feed machine data for the best bushing quality, to known the best Speed for Form Tapping processes and to know the best bush long in pure copper pipes for water solar interchange equipment. Thermal Flow Drilling (TFD) and Form Tapping (FT) is one of the research lines of the Institute of Production and Logistics (IPL) at University of Kassel. At December 1995, a work meeting of IPL, Santa Catarina University, Brazil, Buenos Aires University, Argentine, Tarapacá University (UTA), Chile members and the CEO of Flowdrill B.V. was held in Brazil. The group decided that the Manufacturing Laboratory (ML) of UTA would work with pure copper and brass alloys sheet metal and pure copper pipes in order to develop a water interchange solar heater. The Flowdrill BV Company sent tools to Tarapacá University in 1996. In 1999 IPL and the ML carried out an ALECHILE research project promoted by the DAAD and CONICyT in copper sheet metal and copper pipes and sheet metal a-brass alloys. The normal tools are lobed, conical tungsten carbide tool. When rotated at high speed and pressed with high axial force into sheet metal or thin walled tube generated heat softens the metal and allows the drill to feed forward produce a hole and simultaneously form a bushing from the displacement material. In the market exist many features but in this thesis is used short and longs normal tools of TFD. For reach the objectives it was takes as references four qualities of the frayed end bushing, where the best one is the quality class I. It was used pure copper and a-brass alloys sheet metals, with different thickness. It was used different TFD drills diameter for four thread type, from M-5 to M10. Similar to the Aluminium sheet metals studies it was used the predrilling processes with HSS drills around 30% of the TFD diameter (1,5 – 3,0 mm D). In the next step is used only 2,0 mm thick metal sheet, and 9,2 mm TFD diameter for M-10 thread. For the case of pure commercial copper pipes is used for ¾” inch diameter and 12, 8 mm (3/8”) TFD drill for holes for 3/8” pipes and different normal HSS drills for predrilling processes. The chemical sheet metal characteristics were takes as reference for the material behaviour. The Chilean pure copper have 99,35% of Cu and 0,163% of Zinc and the Chilean a-brass alloys have 75,6% of Cu and 24,0% of Zinc. It is used two German a-brass alloys; Nº1 have 61,6% of Cu, 36,03 % of Zinc and 2,2% of Pb and the German a-brass alloys Nº2 have 63,1% of Cu, 36,7% of Zinc and 0% of Pb. The equipments used were a HAAS CNC milling machine centre, a Kistler dynamometer, PC Pentium II, Acquisition card, TESTPOINT and XAct software, 3D measurement machine, micro hardness, universal test machine, and metallographic microscope. During the test is obtained the feed force and momentum curves that shows the material behaviour with TFD processes. In general it is take three phases. It was possible obtain the best machining data for the different sheet of copper and a-brass alloys thick of Chilean materials and bush quality class I. In the case of a-brass alloys, the chemical components and the TFD processes temperature have big influence. The temperature reach to 400º Celsius during the TFD processes and the a-brass alloys have some percents of Zinc the bush quality is class I. But when the a-brass alloys have some percents of Lead who have 200º C melting point is not possible to obtain a bush, because the Lead gasify and the metallographic net broke. During the TFD processes the recrystallization structures occur around the Copper and a-brass alloy bush, who gives more hardness in these zones. When the threads were produce with Form Tapping processes with Flowtap tools, this hardness amount gives a high limit load of the thread when hey are tested in a special support that was developed for it. For eliminated the predrilling processes with normal HSS drills it was developed a compound tool. With this new tool it was possible obtain the best machining data for quality class I bush. For the copper pipes it is made bush without predrilling and the quality class IV was obtained. When it is was used predrilling processes, quality classes I bush were obtained. Then with different HSS drill diameter were obtained different long bush, where were soldering with four types soldering materials between pipes with 3/8” in a big one as ¾”. Those soldering unions were tested by traction test and all the 3/8” pipes broken, and the soldering zone doesn’t have any problem. Finally were developed different solar water interchange heaters and tested. As conclusions, the present Thesis shows that the Thermal Flow Drilling in thinner metal sheets of cooper and cooper alloys needs a predrilling process for frayed end quality class I bushings, similar to thinner sheets of aluminium bushes. The compound tool developed could obtain quality class I bushings and excludes predrilling processes. The bush recrystalization, product of the friction between the tool and the material, the hardness grows and it is advantageous for the Form Tapping. The methodology developed for commercial copper pipes permits to built water solar interchange heaters.