Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Influence of the buffer environment on the Relative Biological Effectiveness of carbon ion radiation, investigated by Scanning Force Microscopy and gel electrophoresis

This work focuses on the analysis of the influence of environment on the relative biological effectiveness (RBE) of carbon ions on molecular level. Due to the high relevance of RBE for medical applications, such as tumor therapy, and radiation protection in space, DNA damages have been investigated in order to understand the biological efficiency of heavy ion radiation. The contribution of this study to the radiobiology research consists in the analysis of plasmid DNA damages induced by carbon ion radiation in biochemical buffer environments, as well as in the calculation of the RBE of carbon ions on DNA level by mean of scanning force microscopy (SFM). In order to study the DNA damages, besides the common electrophoresis method, a new approach has been developed by using SFM. The latter method allows direct visualisation and measurement of individual DNA fragments with an accuracy of several nanometres. In addition, comparison of the results obtained by SFM and agarose gel electrophoresis methods has been performed in the present study. Sparsely ionising radiation, such as X-rays, and densely ionising radiation, such as carbon ions, have been used to irradiate plasmid DNA in trishydroxymethylaminomethane (Tris buffer) and 4-(2-hydroxyethyl)-1-piperazineethanesulfonic acid (HEPES buffer) environments. These buffer environments exhibit different scavenging capacities for hydroxyl radical (HO0), which is produced by ionisation of water and plays the major role in the indirect DNA damage processes. Fragment distributions have been measured by SFM over a large length range, and as expected, a significantly higher degree of DNA damages was observed for increasing dose. Also a higher amount of double-strand breaks (DSBs) was observed after irradiation with carbon ions compared to X-ray irradiation. The results obtained from SFM measurements show that both types of radiation induce multiple fragmentation of the plasmid DNA in the dose range from D = 250 Gy to D = 1500 Gy. Using Tris environments at two different concentrations, a decrease of the relative biological effectiveness with the rise of Tris concentration was observed. This demonstrates the radioprotective behavior of the Tris buffer solution. In contrast, a lower scavenging capacity for all other free radicals and ions, produced by the ionisation of water, was registered in the case of HEPES buffer compared to Tris solution. This is reflected in the higher RBE values deduced from SFM and gel electrophoresis measurements after irradiation of the plasmid DNA in 20 mM HEPES environment compared to 92 mM Tris solution. These results show that HEPES and Tris environments play a major role on preventing the indirect DNA damages induced by ionising radiation and on the relative biological effectiveness of heavy ion radiation. In general, the RBE calculated from the SFM measurements presents higher values compared to gel electrophoresis data, for plasmids irradiated in all environments. Using a large set of data, obtained from the SFM measurements, it was possible to calculate the survive rate over a larger range, from 88% to 98%, while for gel electrophoresis measurements the survive rates have been calculated only for values between 96% and 99%. While the gel electrophoresis measurements provide information only about the percentage of plasmids DNA that suffered a single DSB, SFM can count the small plasmid fragments produced by multiple DSBs induced in a single plasmid. Consequently, SFM generates more detailed information regarding the amount of the induced DSBs compared to gel electrophoresis, and therefore, RBE can be calculated with more accuracy. Thus, SFM has been proven to be a more precise method to characterize on molecular level the DNA damage induced by ionizing radiations.