2 resultados para regressions
em Universitätsbibliothek Kassel, Universität Kassel, Germany
Resumo:
The presented thesis considered three different system approach topics to ensure yield and plant health in organically grown potatoes and tomatoes. The first topic describes interactions between late blight (Phytophthora infestans) incidence and soil nitrogen supply on yield in organic potato farming focussing in detail on the yield loss relationship of late blight based on results of several field trials. The interactive effects of soil N-supply, climatic conditions and late blight on the yield were studied in the presence and absence of copper fungicides from 2002-2004 for the potato cultivar Nicola. Under conditions of central Germany the use of copper significantly reduced late blight in almost all cases (15-30 %). However, the reductions in disease through copper application did not result in statistically significant yield increases (+0 – +10 %). Subsequently, only 30 % of the variation in yield could be attributed to disease reductions. A multiple regression model (R²Max), however, including disease reduction, growth duration and temperature sum from planting until 60 % disease severity was reached and soil mineral N contents 10 days after emergence could explain 75 % of the observed variations in yield. The second topic describes the effect of some selected organic fertilisers and biostimulant products on nitrogen-mineralization and efficiency, yield and diseases in organic potato and tomato trials. The organic fertilisers Biofeed Basis (BFB, plant derived, AgroBioProducts, Wageningen, Netherlands) and BioIlsa 12,5 Export (physically hydrolysed leather shavings, hair and skin of animals; ILSA, Arizignano, Italy) and two biostimulant products BioFeed Quality (BFQ, multi-compound seaweed extract, AgroBioProducts) and AUSMA (aqueous pine and spruce needle extract, A/S BIOLAT, Latvia), were tested. Both fertilisers supplied considerable amounts of nitrogen during the main uptake phases of the crops and reached yields as high or higher as compared to the control with horn meal fertilisation. The N-efficiency of the tested fertilisers in potatoes ranged from 90 to 159 kg yield*kg-1 N – input. Most effective with tomatoes were the combined treatments of fertiliser BFB and the biostimulants AUSMA and BFQ. Both biostimulants significantly increased the share of healthy fruit and/or the number of fruits. BFQ significantly increased potato yields (+6 %) in one out of two years and reduced R. solani-infestation in the potatoes. This suggests that the biostimulants had effects on plant metabolism and resistance properties. However, no effects of biostimulants on potato late blight could be observed in the fields. The third topic focused on the effect of suppressive composts and seed tuber health on the saprophytic pathogen Rhizoctonia solani in organic potato systems. In the present study 5t ha-1 DM of a yard and bio-waste (60/40) compost produced in a 5 month composting process and a 15 month old 100 % yard waste compost were used to assess the effects on potato infection with R. solani when applying composts within the limits allowed. Across the differences in initial seed tuber infestation and 12 cultivars 5t DM ha-1 of high quality composts, applied in the seed tuber area, reduced the infestation of harvested potatoes with black scurf, tuber malformations and dry core tubers by 20 to 84 %, 20 to 49 % and 38 to 54 %, respectively, while marketable yields were increased by 5 to 25 % due to lower rates of wastes after sorting (marketable yield is gross yield minus malformed tubers, tubers with dry core, tubers with black scurf > 15% infested skin). The rate of initial black scurf infection of the seed tubers also affected tuber number, health and quality significantly. Compared to healthy seed tubers initial black scurf sclerotia infestation of 2-5 and >10 % of tuber surface led in untreated plots to a decrease in marketable yields by 14-19 and 44-66 %, a increase of black scurf severity by 8-40 and 34-86 % and also increased the amount of malformed and dry core tubers by 32-57 and 109-214 %.
Resumo:
The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between six bioclimatic indices for cattle (temperature humidity (THI), environmental stress (ESI), equivalent temperature (ESI), heat load (HLI), modified heat load (HLInew) and respiratory rate predictor(RRP)) and fundamental milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when cows use natural pasture, with possibility for cows to choose to stay in the barn or to graze on the pasture in the pasturing system. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty estimation through resampling in the confidence intervals. To find the relationships between climate indices (THI, ETI, HLI, HLInew, ESI and RRP) and main components of cow milk (fat, protein and yield), multiple liner regression is applied. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Based on results of investigation the effect of heat stress indices on milk compounds separately, we suggest the use of ESI and RRP in the summer and ESI in the spring. THI and HLInew are suggested for fat content and HLInew also is suggested for protein content in the spring season. The best linear models are found in spring between milk yield as predictands and THI, ESI,HLI, ETI and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 0.50, 0.49. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. It is strongly suggested that new and significant indices are needed to control critical heat stress conditions that consider more predictors of the effect of climate variability on animal products, such as sunshine duration, quality of pasture, the number of days of stress (NDS), the color of skin with attention to large black spots, and categorical predictors such as breed, welfare facility, and management system. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food quality/security, animal science and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty or data collection is expensive, difficult, or data with gaps.