Entwicklung der Windenergietechnik in Deutschland und der Einfluss staatlicher Förderpolitik - Technikentwicklung in den 90er Jahren zwischen Markt und Forschungsförderung

Seit gut zehn Jahren erlebt die Windenergienutzung in Deutschland einen in der Mitte der 80er Jahre nicht für möglich gehaltenen Aufschwung. Anlagenanzahl und installierte Leistung haben in diesem Zeitraum mit durchschnittlichen jährlichen Wachstumsraten von mehr als 30 Prozent zugenommen, die mittlere installierte Leistung pro neu errichteter Anlage stieg dabei um das Zehnfache und die technische Verfügbarkeit der Anlagen liegt mittlerweile bei über 98 Prozent. Mit größer werdenden Anlagen zeigt sich weiterhin ein klarer Trend zu Blattwinkel verstellbaren Konzepten, mit zunehmend drehzahlvariabler Betriebsweise. Vor dem von Vielen für die kommenden drei bis sechs Jahre prognostizierten Einstieg in die großtechnische Offshore- Windenergienutzung mit den damit verbundenen immensen technologischen und strukturellen Herausforderungen erscheint es sinnvoll, einen kritischen Blick zurückzuwerfen auf die 90er Jahre mit den ihnen zugrunde liegenden förderpolitischen Rahmenbedingungen. Dabei soll die Frage beantwortet werden, welchen konkreten Einfluss die staatlichen Forschungs- und Förderprogramme, besonders das "250 MW Wind"-Programm, auf die Entwicklung der Windenergienutzung hatten, das heißt, unter welchen Bedingungen sich bestimmte Techniklinien durchsetzten, wie der Einfluss eines geschützten Marktes durch gesetzlich garantierte Einspeisetarife auf diese Entwicklung zu bewerten ist und schließlich, welche Fehlentwicklungen möglicher Weise eingetreten sind. Dazu wird mit Hilfe von Lernkurven gezeigt, welche Kostenreduktionen insgesamt erzielt wurden, wie hoch die dazu notwendigen staatlichen Finanzmittel waren und welche Schlussfolgerungen daraus für die Zukunft abgeleitet werden können. Die Arbeit soll insgesamt dazu beitragen, die erreichten technischen Entwicklungsschritte vor dem Hintergrund der förderpolitischen Gegebenheiten besser zu verstehen, Chancen für gezielte Änderungen in der Förderpraxis zu ergreifen und Hinweise auf die Ausgestaltung von zukünftigen Forschungsprogrammen und Entwicklungsschwerpunkten im Bereich der Windenergie zu geben, um weitere Kostensenkungspotenziale auszuschöpfen. Dabei wird sich die zukünftige Schwerpunktsetzung in der programmatischen Ausrichtung der Forschung stärker auf die drei wichtigsten Anwendungsfelder für Windenergieanlagen konzentrieren müssen, die großtechnische Offshore- Anwendung, die netzgebundene, dezentrale Energieversorgung sowie auf Windenergieanlagen zur ländlichen Elektrifizierung in autonomen Versorgungssystemen für Schwellen- und Entwicklungsländer.

Management approaches in organic potato and tomato production

The presented thesis considered three different system approach topics to ensure yield and plant health in organically grown potatoes and tomatoes. The first topic describes interactions between late blight (Phytophthora infestans) incidence and soil nitrogen supply on yield in organic potato farming focussing in detail on the yield loss relationship of late blight based on results of several field trials. The interactive effects of soil N-supply, climatic conditions and late blight on the yield were studied in the presence and absence of copper fungicides from 2002-2004 for the potato cultivar Nicola. Under conditions of central Germany the use of copper significantly reduced late blight in almost all cases (15-30 %). However, the reductions in disease through copper application did not result in statistically significant yield increases (+0 – +10 %). Subsequently, only 30 % of the variation in yield could be attributed to disease reductions. A multiple regression model (R²Max), however, including disease reduction, growth duration and temperature sum from planting until 60 % disease severity was reached and soil mineral N contents 10 days after emergence could explain 75 % of the observed variations in yield. The second topic describes the effect of some selected organic fertilisers and biostimulant products on nitrogen-mineralization and efficiency, yield and diseases in organic potato and tomato trials. The organic fertilisers Biofeed Basis (BFB, plant derived, AgroBioProducts, Wageningen, Netherlands) and BioIlsa 12,5 Export (physically hydrolysed leather shavings, hair and skin of animals; ILSA, Arizignano, Italy) and two biostimulant products BioFeed Quality (BFQ, multi-compound seaweed extract, AgroBioProducts) and AUSMA (aqueous pine and spruce needle extract, A/S BIOLAT, Latvia), were tested. Both fertilisers supplied considerable amounts of nitrogen during the main uptake phases of the crops and reached yields as high or higher as compared to the control with horn meal fertilisation. The N-efficiency of the tested fertilisers in potatoes ranged from 90 to 159 kg yield*kg-1 N – input. Most effective with tomatoes were the combined treatments of fertiliser BFB and the biostimulants AUSMA and BFQ. Both biostimulants significantly increased the share of healthy fruit and/or the number of fruits. BFQ significantly increased potato yields (+6 %) in one out of two years and reduced R. solani-infestation in the potatoes. This suggests that the biostimulants had effects on plant metabolism and resistance properties. However, no effects of biostimulants on potato late blight could be observed in the fields. The third topic focused on the effect of suppressive composts and seed tuber health on the saprophytic pathogen Rhizoctonia solani in organic potato systems. In the present study 5t ha-1 DM of a yard and bio-waste (60/40) compost produced in a 5 month composting process and a 15 month old 100 % yard waste compost were used to assess the effects on potato infection with R. solani when applying composts within the limits allowed. Across the differences in initial seed tuber infestation and 12 cultivars 5t DM ha-1 of high quality composts, applied in the seed tuber area, reduced the infestation of harvested potatoes with black scurf, tuber malformations and dry core tubers by 20 to 84 %, 20 to 49 % and 38 to 54 %, respectively, while marketable yields were increased by 5 to 25 % due to lower rates of wastes after sorting (marketable yield is gross yield minus malformed tubers, tubers with dry core, tubers with black scurf > 15% infested skin). The rate of initial black scurf infection of the seed tubers also affected tuber number, health and quality significantly. Compared to healthy seed tubers initial black scurf sclerotia infestation of 2-5 and >10 % of tuber surface led in untreated plots to a decrease in marketable yields by 14-19 and 44-66 %, a increase of black scurf severity by 8-40 and 34-86 % and also increased the amount of malformed and dry core tubers by 32-57 and 109-214 %.

Nitrogen in combination with Desmodium intortum effectively suppress Striga asiatica in a sorghum‒Desmodium intercropping system

It is well known that the parasitic weed Striga asiatica (L.) Kuntze can be suppressed by Striga-tolerant sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench) cultivars, Desmodium intortum (Mill.) Urb. (greanleaf desmodium), and by fertilization with nitrogen. The study objective was the assessment of Striga control provided by integration of Desmodium density, timing of sorghum-Desmodium intercrop establishment, and nitrogen fertilization. Growth responses and yield of three sorghum cultivars were measured in three pot experiments. A soil naturally infested with Striga was used, and that part of the soil which served as uninfested control was chemically sterilised. Striga numbers and growth were affected significantly by sorghum cultivars, sorghum-Desmodium intercrop ratios, timing of the sorghum-Desmodium association, as well as by their interactions. Desmodium caused 100% suppression of Striga emergence when Desmodium was established in the 1:3 sorghum-Desmodium ratio at seeding of sorghum. Total control of Striga was also achieved with the 1:1 sorghum-Desmodium ratio when Desmodium was transplanted 30 days before sorghum seeding. However, these two treatments also caused significant reductions in sorghum yield. In contrast, 100% Striga control and a dramatic increase in sorghum yield were achieved with 100 kg N ha^{-1} in the 1:1 sorghum-Desmodium intercrop. Compatibility of sorghum and Desmodium was evident at the 1:1 sorghum-Desmodium intercrop established at sorghum seeding. Overall, the Ethiopian cultivars Meko and Abshir showed better agronomic performance and higher tolerance to Striga than the South African cultivar PAN 8564. It is recommended that the N × Desmodium × sorghum interaction be investigated under field conditions.

Economics of Hybrid Photovoltaic Power Plants

The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

Effects of plant diversity on bioenergy parameters in grassland biomass

Extensive grassland biomass for bioenergy production has long been subject of scientific research. The possibility of combining nature conservation goals with a profitable management while reducing competition with food production has created a strong interest in this topic. However, the botanical composition will play a key role for solid fuel quality of grassland biomass and will have effects on the combustion process by potentially causing corrosion, emission and slagging. On the other hand, botanical composition will affect anaerobic digestibility and thereby the biogas potential. In this thesis aboveground biomass from the Jena-Experiment plots was harvested in 2008 and 2009 and analysed for the most relevant chemical constituents effecting fuel quality and anaerobic digestibility. Regarding combustion, the following parameters were of main focus: higher heating value (HHV), gross energy yield (GE), ash content, ash softening temperature (AST), K, Ca, Mg, N, Cl and S content. For biogas production the following parameters were investigated: substrate specific methane yield (CH4 sub), area specific methane yield (CH4 area), crude fibre (CF), crude protein (CP), crude lipid (CL) and nitrogen-free extract (NfE). Furthermore, an improvement of the fuel quality was investigated through applying the Integrated generation of solid Fuel and Biogas from Biomass (IFBB) procedure. Through the specific setup of the Jena-Experiment it was possible to outline the changes of these parameters along two diversity gradients: (i) species richness (SR; 1 to 60 species) and (ii) functional group (grasses, legumes, small herbs and tall herbs) presence. This was a novel approach on investigating the bioenergy characteristic of extensive grassland biomass and gave detailed insight in the sward-composition¬ - bioenergy relations such as: (i) the most relevant SR effect was the increase of energy yield for both combustion (annual GE increased by 26% from SR8→16 and by 65% from SR8→60) and anaerobic digestion (annual CH4 area increased by 22% from SR8→16 and by 49% from SR8→60) through a strong interaction of SR with biomass yield; (ii) legumes play a key role for the utilization of grassland biomass for energy production as they increase the energy content of the substrate (HHV and CH4 sub) and the energy yield (GE and CH4 area); (iii) combustion is the conversion technique that will yield the highest energy output but requires an improvement of the solid fuel quality in order to reduce the risk of corrosion, emission and slagging related problems. This was achieved through applying the IFBB-procedure, with reductions in ash (by 23%), N (28%), K (85%), Cl (56%) and S (59%) and equal levels of concentrations along the SR gradient.

Diazafluoren-9-yliden als Bindungsmotiv für Metallfragmente in kreuzkonjugierten π-Systemen

In der vorliegenden Dissertation wurden kreuzkonjugierte organische Verbindungen basierend auf Diazafluorenmethyliden- sowie Dipyridylmethyliden-Bausteinen synthetisiert, die zum einen photoredoxaktive Metallfragmente komplexieren können und zum anderen erweiterte π-konjugierte Pfade auf der Grundlage von Alkineinheiten ermöglichen. Das kreuzkonjugierte Motiv wurde über die Kupplung von Alkineinheiten an halogenierte Methyliden-Einheiten, den so genannten Dibromolefinen, zugänglich gemacht. Zur Synthese von Dibromolefinen wurden verschiedene Methoden untersucht. Literaturbekannte Methoden wie die Wittig-Reaktion und ihre Modifikationen sowie die Corey-Fuchs-Reaktion konnten für die Diazafluoreneinheit nicht erfolgreich angewendet werden. Bei einer mikrowellenunterstützten Reaktion konnte sowohl ausgehend von Diazafluoren-9-on als auch von Di-2-pyridylketon eine Dibromolefinierung (55 % und 65 %) erreicht werden. Die Eignung der Mikrowellenstrahlung für Dibromolefinierungsreaktionen nach Corey und Fuchs wurde weiterhin an verschiedenen Aldehyden und Ketonen untersucht. In den meisten Fällen konnten gute bis sehr gute Ergebnisse erzielt werden. Durch die erfolgreiche Synthese von Dibromolefinen über Mikrowellensynthese wurde die Realisierung von diversen π-konjugierten Systemen möglich. Dies erfolgte exemplarisch durch die Kupplung der Alkine 5-Ethinyl-2,2’-bipyridin, 1-(Ferrocenylethinyl)-4-(ethinyl)benzol, Tri(tolyl)propin sowie der TIPS- und TMS-Acetylene. Neben der Vielfalt an Möglichkeiten zur Funktionalisierung von Dipyridyl- und Diazafluorenbausteinen zeigte sich zudem, dass sogar räumlich anspruchsvolle Verbindungen wie die geminale angeordneten voluminösen Tri(tolyl)propinyl-Substituenten an der Doppelbindung erfolgreich synthetisiert werden können. Die Koordinationseigenschaften der neu synthetisierten Verbindungen konnten durch Umsetzungen der Diazafluoren- und Dipyridylverbindungen mit PdCl2 und [RuCl2(bpy)2] erfolgreich gezeigt werden. Im Hinblick auf die Herstellung von Funktionsmaterialien eignen sich die Endiin-Strukturmotive aufgrund von diversen Variationsmöglichkeiten wie Koordination von Übergangsmetallen sowie Funktionalisierung der Peripherie gut. Dadurch können die elektronischen Eigenschaften wie die Absorption oder elektrochemische Potentiale der Verbindungen modifiziert werden. Die UV/Vis-Spektren der neu synthetisierten Verbindungen zeigen, dass Absorptionen in längerwelligen Bereichen durch Verlängerung des Konjugationspfades gesteuert werden können. Zudem lassen sich weitere photophysikalische Eigenschaften wie MC-, LC-, LMCT- oder MLCT-Übergänge durch Koordination von Metallen generieren. Die elektrochemischen Potentiale der Dipyridyl- und Diazafluorenbausteine konnten durch Anbindung von verschiedenen Substituenten beeinflusst werden. Es zeigte sich, dass sich die Reduktionswellen im Vergleich zu denen der Ketone zu niedrigeren Potentialen verschieben, wenn Alkine an die Dipyridylmethyliden- und Diazafluorenmethyliden-Bausteine geknüpft wurden. Zudem konnte beobachtet werden, dass die Signale nicht immer reversibel sind. Insbesondere die Dipyridylverbindungen zeichneten sich durch irreversible Reduktionswellen aus. Die Realisierung von π-konjugierten Systemen gelang auch mit cyclischen kohlenstoffbasierten Verbindungen. Über das separat synthetisierte 2,2’-Diethinyltolan konnte eine cyclische Verbindung, ein dehydroannulen-radialenisches System, erfolgreich hergestellt werden. Die Koordination von redoxaktiven Metallzentren wie [Ru(bpy)2] konnte für diese Verbindung ebenfalls erfolgreich gezeigt werden. Die elektronische Wechselwirkung zwischen dem Metallzentrum und dem dehydroannulenischen System könnte sowohl über theoretische Methoden (zeitabhängige Dichtefunktionaltheorie) als auch experimentell wie z. B. über transiente Absorptionsspektroskopie untersucht werden. Diese zukünftig durchzuführenden Untersuchungen können Aufschluss über die Ladungstransferraten und -dauer geben. Im Hinblick auf die Realisierung von Modellverbindungen für molekulare Drähte wurden lineare Systeme basierend auf der Diazafluoreneinheit synthetisiert. Zur Synthese von derartigen Systemen war es zunächst notwendig, die Dibromolefine unsymmetrisch zu alkinylieren. Die unsymmetrische Substitution gestaltete sich als Herausforderung, da eine Einfachkupplung mit einem Acetylen nicht möglich war. In den meisten Fällen wurden zweifach substituierte Spezies mit den identischen Alkinen erhalten. Die besten Ausbeuten konnten durch die konsekutive Zugabe von TIPS-Acetylen und darauffolgend TMS-Acetylen in die Reaktionsmischung erhalten werden. Offenbar spielt der räumliche Anspruch des Erstsubstituenten in diesem Zusammenhang eine Rolle. Die selektive Entschützung der unterschiedlich silylierten Verbindungen erfolgte mit K2CO3 in MeOH/THF (1:1). Die oxidative Homokupplungsreaktion erfolgte ohne Isolierung der entschützten Spezies, da diese instabil ist und zur Polymerisation neigt. Aufgrund der Instabilität der entschützten Spezies sowie möglichen Nebenreaktionen waren die Ausbeuten sowohl bei der TIPS-geschützten Verbindung als auch bei der TTP-geschützten Verbindung gering. Versuche, lineare Systeme von dipyridylbasierten Verbindungen zu erhalten, schlugen fehl. Die π-konjugierten Systeme lassen aufgrund der effektiven Überlappung der beteiligten π-Orbitale hohe Ladungsträgermobilitäten vermuten. Die im Rahmen dieser Arbeit synthetisierten Verbindungen könnten mit Schwefelverbindungen die Anbindung an Elektroden zulassen, worüber die Leitfähigkeiten der Verbindungen gemessen werden könnten.

India’s Carbon Governance: The Clean Development Mechanism

Carbon Governance systems – institutional arrangements in place for mitigating greenhouse gas emissions – are different in emerging countries. Indeed, carbon is the same everywhere but Carbon Governance isn’t: in Brazil, the financial community is actively interested in carbon trading, but Chinese banks have hardly any interest in it; and while the Chinese government takes an active interest in providing capacity to project developers, the Brazilian authorities see their role uniquely as guarantors of environmental integrity of emissions reductions projects. In the case of India, carbon governance offers specific features of patterns and interactions mostly because India strongly developed the Clean Development Mechanism and its market. This article proposes a study to the research and understanding of how exactly carbon governance works in the Indian case, knowing that India is the second largest host of CDM projects.

Survey of Agricultural Practices and Alternatives to Pesticide Use to Conserve Water Resources in the Mojanda Watershed, Ecuador

Agriculture in the Mojanda Watershed is facing rainfall reductions caused by climate change. Reductions of water availability in the Watershed are also due to constant extension of the agricultural activities into the páramo ecosystem above 3000m a.s.l., with this ecosystem having immanently important functions in the local water balance. The application of pesticides threatens the quality of water and with less precipitation contaminations will further concentrate in the outflow. To analyze problems associated with agricultural practices in the area a questionnaire about agricultural practices (28) was conducted and fields (20) were surveyed for pests and diseases with a focus on potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), tree tomatoes (Solanum betaceum Cav.) and peas (Pisum sativum L.). Potatoes were infected to a low degree with Phytophthora infestans and according to the farmers the Andean potato weevil (Premnotrypes spec.) caused biggest losses. To combat the weevil the soils are disinfected with toxic Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B). Tree tomatoes showed symptoms of various fungal diseases. Most important was Fusarium solani causing the branches to rot and Anthracnosis (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) causing the fruits to rot. Fungicide applications were correspondingly high. Peas were only minorly affected by Ascochyta blight (Mycosphaerella pinodes) and a root rot. Overall 19 active ingredients were applied of which fungicide Mancozeb (WHO class table 5) and insecticide Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B) were applied the most. Approved IPM methods are advised to reduce pesticide use. For tree tomatoes regular cutting of branches infected with F. solani and regular collection and disposal of infected fruits with Anthracnosis are advised. For potatoes plastic barriers around the fields prevent the Andean potato weevil from laying eggs thus reducing infestation with the larvae in the tubers. Local bioinsecticide “Biol” seems effective and without harm to the environment, although not used by many farmers. Organic fertilization promises to restore decreasing soil fertility, water holding capacity and reduce erosion. The here presented alternatives and strategies to reduce pesticide use pose an opportunity to preserve the water resources of the region.

Effects of activated charcoal and quebracho tannins on the turnover of goat manure in irrigated organic agriculture of the subtropics

Agriculture in semi-arid and arid regions is constantly gaining importance for the security of the nutrition of humankind because of the rapid population growth. At the same time, especially these regions are more and more endangered by soil degradation, limited resources and extreme climatic conditions. One way to retain soil fertility under these conditions in the long run is to increase the soil organic matter. Thus, a two-year field experiment was conducted to test the efficiency of activated charcoal and quebracho tannin extract as stabilizers of soil organic matter on a sandy soil low in nutrients in Northern Oman. Both activated charcoal and quebracho tannin extract were either fed to goats and after defecation applied to the soil or directly applied to the soil in combination with dried goat manure. Regardless of the application method, both additives reduced decomposition of soil-applied organic matter and thus stabilized and increased soil organic carbon. The nutrient release from goat manure was altered by the application of activated charcoal and quebracho tannin extract as well, however, nutrient release was not always slowed down. While activated charcoal fed to goats, was more effective in stabilising soil organic matter and in reducing nutrient release than mixing it, for quebracho tannin extract the opposite was the case. Moreover, the efficiency of the additives was influenced by the cultivated crop (sweet corn and radish), leading to unexplained interactions. The reduced nutrient release caused by the stabilization of the organic matter might be the reason for the reduced yields for sweet corn caused by the application of manure amended with activated charcoal and quebracho tannin extract. Radish, on the other hand, was only inhibited by the presence of quebracho tannin extract but not by activated charcoal. This might be caused by a possible allelopathic effect of tannins on crops. To understand the mechanisms behind the changes in manure, in the soil, in the mineralisation and the plant development and to resolve detrimental effects, further research as recommended in this dissertation is necessary. Particularly in developing countries poor in resources and capital, feeding charcoal or tannins to animals and using their faeces as manure may be promising to increase soil fertility, sequester carbon and reduce nutrient losses, when yield reductions can be resolved.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

River ecosystems at risk

Worldwide water managers are increasingly challenged to allocate sufficient and affordable water supplies to different water use sectors without further degrading river ecosystems and their valuable services to mankind. Since 1950 human population almost tripled, water abstractions increased by a factor of four, and the number of large dam constructions is about eight times higher today. From a hydrological perspective, the alteration of river flows (temporally and spatially) is one of the main consequences of global change and further impairments can be expected given growing population pressure and projected climate change. Implications have been addressed in numerous hydrological studies, but with a clear focus on human water demands. Ecological water requirements have often been neglected or addressed in a very simplistic manner, particularly from the large-scale perspective. With his PhD thesis, Christof Schneider took up the challenge to assess direct (dam operation and water abstraction) and indirect (climate change) impacts of human activities on river flow regimes and evaluate the consequences for river ecosystems by using a modeling approach. The global hydrology model WaterGAP3 (developed at CESR) was applied and further developed within this thesis to carry out several model experiments and assess anthropogenic river flow regime modifications and their effects on river ecosystems. To address the complexity of ecological water requirements the assessment is based on three main ideas: (i) the natural flow paradigm, (ii) the perception that different flows have different ecological functions, and (iii) the flood pulse concept. The thesis shows that WaterGAP3 performs well in representing ecologically relevant flow characteristics on a daily time step, and therefore justifies its application within this research field. For the first time a methodology was established to estimate bankfull flow on a 5 by 5 arc minute grid cell raster globally, which is a key parameter in eFlow assessments as it marks the point where rivers hydraulically connect to adjacent floodplains. Management of dams and water consumption pose a risk to floodplains and riparian wetlands as flood volumes are significantly reduced. The thesis highlights that almost one-third of 93 selected Ramsar sites are seriously affected by modified inundation patterns today, and in the future, inundation patterns are very likely to be further impaired as a result of new major dam initiatives and climate change. Global warming has been identified as a major threat to river flow regimes as rising temperatures, declining snow cover, changing precipitation patterns and increasing climate variability are expected to seriously modify river flow regimes in the future. Flow regimes in all climate zones will be affected, in particular the polar zone (Northern Scandinavia) with higher river flows during the year and higher flood peaks in spring. On the other side, river flows in the Mediterranean are likely to be even more intermittent in the future because of strong reductions in mean summer precipitation as well as a decrease in winter precipitation, leading to an increasing number of zero flow events creating isolated pools along the river and transitions from lotic to lentic waters. As a result, strong impacts on river ecosystem integrity can be expected. Already today, large amounts of water are withdrawn in this region for agricultural irrigation and climate change is likely to exacerbate the current situation of water shortages.