Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Local food security and principle of organic farming (from farm to fork) in context of food culture in Indonesia: Minangkabau's case study

The basic idea behind improving local food security consists of two paths; first, accessibility (price, stock) and second, availability (quantity and biodiversity); both are perquisites to the provision of nutrients and a continuous food supply with locally available resources. The objectives of this thesis are to investigate if indigenous knowledge still plays an important role in traditional farming in the Minangkabau`s culture, thus supporting local food security. If the indigenous knowledge still plays a role in food culture in the Minangkabau`s culture which is linked to the matrilineal role and leads to a sound nutrition. Further, it should be tested if marantau influences traditional farming and food culture in Minangkabau`s, and if the local government plays a role in changing of traditional farming systems and food culture. Furthermore this thesis wants to prove if education and gender are playing a role in changing traditional farming system and food culture, and if the mass media affects traditional farming systems and food culture for the Minangkabau. The study was completed at four locations in West Sumatera; Nagari Ulakan (NU) (coastal area), Nagari Aia Batumbuak (NAB) (hilly area), Nagari Padang Laweh Malalo (NPLM) (lake area), Nagari Pandai Sikek (NPS) (hilly area). The rainfall ranged from 1400- 4800 mm annually with fertile soils. Data was collected by using PRA (Participatory Rural Appraisal) to investigate indigenous knowledge (IK) and its interactions, which is also combining with in depth-interview, life history, a survey using semi-structured-questionnaire, pictures, mapping, and expert interview. The data was collected from June - September 2009 and June 2010. The materials are; map of area, list of names, questionnaires, voices recorder, note book, and digital camera. The sampling method was snowball sampling which resulted in the qualitative and quantitative data taken. For qualitative data, ethnography and life history was used. For quantitative, a statistical survey with a semi-structured questionnaire was used. 50 respondents per each site participated voluntarily. Data was analyzed by performing MAXQDA 10, and F4 audio analysis software (created and developed by Philip-University Marburg). The data is clustered based on causality. The results show that; the role of IK on TFS (traditional farming system) shown on NPLM which has higher food crop biodiversity in comparison to the other three places even though it has relatively similar temperature and rainfall. This high food crop biodiversity is due to the awareness of local people who realized that they lived in unfavourable climate and topography; therefore they are more prepared for any changes that may occur. Carbohydrate intake is 100 % through rice even though they are growing different staple crops. Whereas most of the people said in the interviews that not eating rice is like not really eating for them. In addition to that, mothers still play an important role in kitchen activities. But when the agriculture income is low, mothers have to decide whether to change the meals or to feel insecure about their food supply. Marantau yields positive impact through the remittances it provides to invest on the farm. On the other hand, it results in fewer workers for agriculture, and therefore a negative impact on the transfer of IK. The investigation showed that the local government has a PTS (Padi Tanam Sabatang) programme which still does not guarantee that the farmers are getting sufficient revenue from their land. The low agricultural income leads to situation of potential food insecurity. It is evident that education is equal among men and women, but in some cases women tend to leave school earlier because of arranged marriages or the distances of school from their homes. Men predominantly work in agriculture and fishing, while women work in the kitchen. In NAB, even though women work on farmland they earn less then men. Weaving (NPS) and kitchen activity is recognized as women’s work, which also supports the household income. Mass media is not yielding any changes in TFS and food culture in these days. The traditional farming system has changed because of intensive agricultural extension which has introduced new methods of agriculture for the last three decades (since the 1980’s). There is no evidence that they want to change any of their food habits because of the mass media despite the lapau activity which allows them to get more food choices, instead preparing traditional meal at home. The recommendations of this thesis are: 1) The empowerment of farmers. It is regarding the self sufficient supply of manure, cooperative seed, and sustainable farm management. Farmers should know – where are they in their state of knowledge – so they can use their local wisdom and still collaborate with new sources of knowledge. Farmers should learn the prognosis of supply and demand next prior to harvest. There is a need for farm management guidelines; that can be adopted from both their local wisdom and modern knowledge. 2) Increase of non-agricultural income Increasing the non-agricultural income is strongly recommended. The remittances can be invested on non-agricultural jobs. 3) The empowerment of the mother. The mother plays an important role in farm to fork activities; the mother can be an initiator and promoter of cultivating spices in the backyard. Improvement of nutritional knowledge through information and informal public education can be done through arisan ibu-ibu and lapau activity. The challenges to apply these recommendations are: 1) The gap between institutions and organizations of local governments. There is more than one institution involved in food security policy. 2) Training and facilities for field extension agriculture (FEA) is needed because the rapid change of interaction between local government and farmer’s dependent on this agency.