The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Femtosecond real-time probing of reactions. 12. Vectorial dynamics of transition states

Femtosecond time-resolved techniques with KETOF (kinetic energy time-of-flight) detection in a molecular beam are developed for studies of the vectorial dynamics of transition states. Application to the dissociation reaction of IHgI is presented. For this system, the complex [I---Hg---I](++)* is unstable and, through the symmetric and asymmetric stretch motions, yields different product fragments: [I---Hg---I](++)* -> HgI(X^2/sigma^+) + I(^2P_3/2) [or I*(^2P_l/2)] (1a); [I---Hg---I](++)* -> Hg(^1S_0) + I(^2P_3/2) + I(^2P_3/2) [or I* (^2P_1/2)] (1 b). These two channels, (1a) and (1b), lead to different kinetic energy distributions in the products. It is shown that the motion of the wave packet in the transition-state region can be observed by MPI mass detection; the transient time ranges from 120 to 300 fs depending on the available energy. With polarized pulses, the vectorial properties (transition moments alignment relative to recoil direction) are studied for fragment separations on the femtosecond time scale. The results indicate the nature of the structure (symmetry properties) and the correlation to final products. For 311-nm excitation, no evidence of crossing between the I and I* potentials is found at the internuclear separations studied. (Results for 287-nm excitation are also presented.) Molecular dynamics simulations and studies by laser-induced fluorescence support these findings.

Cereal/legume rotation effects on rhizosphere bacterial community structure in West African soils

The increased use of cereal/legume crop rotation has been advocated as a strategy to increase cereal yields of subsistence farmers in West Africa, and is believed to promote changes in the rhizosphere that enhance early plant growth. In this study we investigated the microbial diversity of the rhizoplane from seedlings grown in two soils previously planted to cereal or legume from experimental plots in Gaya, Niger, and Kaboli, Togo. Soils from these legume rotation and continuous cereal plots were placed into containers and sown in a growth chamber with maize (Zea mays L.), millet (Pennisetum glaucum L.), sorghum (Sorghum bicolor L. Moench.), cowpea (Vigna unguiculata L.) or groundnut (Arachis hypogaea L.). At 7 and 14 days after sowing, 16S rDNA profiles of the eubacterial and ammoniaoxidizing communities from the rhizoplane and bulk soil were generated using denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Community profiles were subjected to peak fitting analyses to quantify the DNA band position and intensities, after which these data were compared using correspondence and principal components analysis. The data showed that cropping system had a highly significant effect on community structure (p <0.005), irrespective of plant species or sampling time. Continuous cereal-soil grown plants had highly similar rhizoplane communities across crop species and sites, whereas communities from the rotation soil showed greater variability and clustered with respect to plant species. Analyses of the ammonia-oxidizing communities provided no evidence of any effects of plant species or management history on ammonia oxidizers in soil from Kaboli, but there were large shifts with respect to this group of bacteria in soils from Gaya. The results of these analyses show that crop rotation can cause significant shifts in rhizosphere bacterial communities.

Theory for Optical Absorption in Small Clusters: Dependence on Atomic Structure and Cluster Size

We present a theory which permits for the first time a detailed analysis of the dependence of the absorption spectrum on atomic structure and cluster size. Thus, we determine the development of the collective excitations in small clusters and show that their broadening depends sensitively on the tomic structure, in particular at the surface. Results for Hg_n^+ clusters show that the plasmon energy is close to its jellium value in the case of spherical-like structures, but is in general between w_p/ \wurzel{3} and w_p/ \wurzel{2} for compact clusters. A particular success of our theory is the identification of the excitations contributing to the absorption peaks.

Analysis of the electronic structure, hyperfine structure, and volume isotope shifts in the low lying states of BA I and BA II

Relativistic multi-configuration Dirac Fock (MCDF) wavefunctions coupled to good angular momentum J have been calculated for low lying states of Ba I and Ba II. These wavefunctions are compared with semiempirical ones derived from experimental atomic energy levels. It is found that significantly better agreement is obtained when close configurations are included in the MCDF wavefunctions. Calculations of the electronic part of the field isotope shift lead to very good agreement with electronic factors derived from experimental data. Furthermore, the slopes of the lines in a King plot analysis of many of the optical lines are predicted accurately by these calculations. However, the MCDF wavefunctions seem not to be of sufficient accuracy to give agreement with the experimental magnetic dipole and electric quadrupole hyperfine structure constants.

Femtosecond real-time probing of reactions. 13. Multiphoton dynamics of IHgI

Real-time studies of the dynamics were performed on the reaction of HgI_2 in a molecular beam. Excitation was by either one or multi pump photons (311 nm), leading to two separate sets of dynamics, each of which could be investigated by a time-delayed probe laser (622 nm) that ionized the parent molecule and the fragments by REMPI processes. These dynamics were distinguished by combining the information from transients taken at each mass (HgI_2, HgI, I_2, Hg, and I) with the results of pump (and probe) power dependence studies on each mass. A method of plotting the slope of the intensity dependence against the pump-probe time delay proved essential. In the preceding publication, we detailed the dynamics of the reaction initiated by a one photon excitation to the A-continuum. Here, we present studies of higher-energy states. Multiphoton excitation accesses predissociative states of HgI_2, for which there are crossings into the symmetric and asymmetric stretch coordinates. The dynamics of these channels, which lead to atomic (I or Hg) and diatomic (HgI) fragments, are discussed and related to the nature of the intermediates along the reaction pathway.

Time-resolved studies of neutral and ionized Na_n clusters with femtosecond light pulses

The real-time dynamics of Na_n (n=3-21) cluster multiphoton ionization and fragmentation has been studied in beam experiments applying femtosecond pump-probe techniques in combination with ion and electron spectroscopy. Three dimensional wave packet motions in the trimer Na_3 ground state X and excited state B have been observed. We report the first study of cluster properties (energy, bandwidth and lifetime of intermediate resonances Na_n^*) with femtosecond laser pulses. The observation of four absorption resonances for the cluster Na_8 with different energy widths and different decay patterns is more difficult to interpret by surface plasmon like resonances than by molecular structure and dynamics. Timeresolved fragmentation of cluster ions Na_n^+ indicates that direct photo-induced fragmentation processes are more important at short times than the statistical unimolecular decay.

Femtosecond time-resolved wave packet motion in molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation

The dynamics of molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation of a diatomic molecule (Na_2) have been studied in molecular beam experiments. Femtosecond laser pulses from an amplified colliding-pulse mode-locked (CPM) ring dye laser are employed to induce and probe the molecular transitions. The final continuum states are analyzed by photoelectron spectroscopy, by ion mass spectrometry and by measuring the kinetic energy of the formed ionic fragments. Pump-probe spectra employing 70-fs laser pulses have been measured to study the time dependence of molecular multiphoton ionization and fragmentation. The oscillatory structure of the transient spectra showing the dynamics on the femtosecond time scale can best be understood in terms of the motion of wave packets in bound molecular potentials. The transient Na_2^+ ionization and the transient Na^+ fragmentation spectra show that contributions from direct photoionization of a singly excited electronic state and from excitation and autoionization of a bound doubly excited molecular state determine the time evolution of molecular multiphoton ionization.

Theoretical study of magnetism, structure and chemical order in transition-metal alloy clusters

Research on transition-metal nanoalloy clusters composed of a few atoms is fascinating by their unusual properties due to the interplay among the structure, chemical order and magnetism. Such nanoalloy clusters, can be used to construct nanometer devices for technological applications by manipulating their remarkable magnetic, chemical and optical properties. Determining the nanoscopic features exhibited by the magnetic alloy clusters signifies the need for a systematic global and local exploration of their potential-energy surface in order to identify all the relevant energetically low-lying magnetic isomers. In this thesis the sampling of the potential-energy surface has been performed by employing the state-of-the-art spin-polarized density-functional theory in combination with graph theory and the basin-hopping global optimization techniques. This combination is vital for a quantitative analysis of the quantum mechanical energetics. The first approach, i.e., spin-polarized density-functional theory together with the graph theory method, is applied to study the Fe$_m$Rh$_n$ and Co$_m$Pd$_n$ clusters having $N = m+n \leq 8$ atoms. We carried out a thorough and systematic sampling of the potential-energy surface by taking into account all possible initial cluster topologies, all different distributions of the two kinds of atoms within the cluster, the entire concentration range between the pure limits, and different initial magnetic configurations such as ferro- and anti-ferromagnetic coupling. The remarkable magnetic properties shown by FeRh and CoPd nanoclusters are attributed to the extremely reduced coordination number together with the charge transfer from 3$d$ to 4$d$ elements. The second approach, i.e., spin-polarized density-functional theory together with the basin-hopping method is applied to study the small Fe$_6$, Fe$_3$Rh$_3$ and Rh$_6$ and the larger Fe$_{13}$, Fe$_6$Rh$_7$ and Rh$_{13}$ clusters as illustrative benchmark systems. This method is able to identify the true ground-state structures of Fe$_6$ and Fe$_3$Rh$_3$ which were not obtained by using the first approach. However, both approaches predict a similar cluster for the ground-state of Rh$_6$. Moreover, the computational time taken by this approach is found to be significantly lower than the first approach. The ground-state structure of Fe$_{13}$ cluster is found to be an icosahedral structure, whereas Rh$_{13}$ and Fe$_6$Rh$_7$ isomers relax into cage-like and layered-like structures, respectively. All the clusters display a remarkable variety of structural and magnetic behaviors. It is observed that the isomers having similar shape with small distortion with respect to each other can exhibit quite different magnetic moments. This has been interpreted as a probable artifact of spin-rotational symmetry breaking introduced by the spin-polarized GGA. The possibility of combining the spin-polarized density-functional theory with some other global optimization techniques such as minima-hopping method could be the next step in this direction. This combination is expected to be an ideal sampling approach having the advantage of avoiding efficiently the search over irrelevant regions of the potential energy surface.

Amphiphile Verbindungen der 14. Gruppe - Synthese, Eigenschaften und Anwendungen von Organosilanolen

Im Rahmen dieser Dissertation wurde an der Darstellung stabiler, amphiphiler Silantriole gearbeitet. Es ist gelungen eine kontinuierliche Reihe sukzessive um CH2-Einheiten verlängerter Silantriole des Typs H3C(CH2)nC(CH3)2Si(OH)3 (n = 1-5) durch eine vierstufige Synthesesequenz ausgehend von n-Alkylbromiden herzustellen und zum Teil röntgenographisch zu untersuchen. Ihre oberflächenaktiven Eigenschaften in wässrigen Lösungen konnten erstmals mittels Oberflächenspannungsmessungen belegt werden. Durch gezielte Kondensationsreaktionen mit Trifluoressigsäure wurden ausgehend von den oben beschriebenen Silantriolen selektiv die entsprechenden Disiloxan-Tetrole erhalten und ebenfalls zum Teil durch Röntgenstrukturanalysen charakterisiert. Als weitere Kondensationsprodukte der Silantriole konnten die ersten Octasilsesquioxane mit tertiären Kohlenstoff-Substituenten durch Umsetzungen mit n-Bu4NF selektiv und in hohen Ausbeuten erhalten und ebenfalls röntgenographisch identifiziert werden. Es wurde an der Darstellung Aryl-substituierter Silantriole RSi(OH)3 (R = Mesityl-, Xylyl- und Tetramethyl-phenyl-) gearbeitet. Diese zeichnen sich jedoch durch ihre hohe Instabilität in Lösung und im Festkörper aus und konnten zum Teil nur zusammen mit ihren primären Kondensationsprodukten erhalten werden. Darüber hinaus wurden stabile Silandiole des Typs R(t-Bu)Si(OH)2 (R = n-Butyl und n-Pentyl) sowie das (o-CF3C6H4)2Si(OH)2 in hohen Ausbeuten und selektiv synthetisiert. Die Festkörpereigenschaften des (o-CF3C6H4)2Si(OH)2 sowie seiner Vorstufe (o-CF3C6H4)2SiCl2 konnten durch Kristallstrukturanalysen genauer untersucht werden. In der Arbeit wurden die ersten Anwendungen von Silanolen als Silan-Kupplungsreagenzien bei der Oberflächenmodifizierung von Glas beschrieben. Im Gegensatz zu gängigen säureassistierten Beschichtungen zeichnen sich diese Silanol-Beschichtungen durch eine deutlich höhere Hydrophobizität aus. Dies konnte durch Kontaktwinkel- und Zeta-Potential-Messungen bestätigt werden. Durch Röntgenreflektivitäts- und Sarfus-Messungen ist die Ausbildung von Monolagen im Falle von t-BuSi(OH)3-beschichteten Oberflächen plausibel. Die Oberflächenmorphologie der Silantriol-Beschichtungen wurde mittels AFM-Messungen untersucht. Die Si(OH)3-Funktion konnte in der vorliegenden Arbeit als ein neues Pharmakophor etabliert werden. Die Silantriole CySi(OH)3, TerSi(OH)3 und CH3CH2C(CH3)2Si(OH)3 (Cy = Cyclohexyl, Ter = Terphenyl) sind in der Lage das Enzym Acetylcholinesterase reversibel zu hemmen. Dabei zeigt das CySi(OH)3 mit 45 % relativ zur Kontrolle die höchste Inhibition.