Assessment of land use and land cover changes during the last 50 years in oases and surrounding rangelands of Xinjiang, NW China

An analysis of historical Corona images, Landsat images, recent radar and Google Earth® images was conducted to determine land use and land cover changes of oases settlements and surrounding rangelands at the fringe of the Altay Mountains from 1964 to 2008. For the Landsat datasets supervised classification methods were used to test the suitability of the Maximum Likelihood Classifier with subsequent smoothing and the Sequential Maximum A Posteriori Classifier (SMAPC). The results show a trend typical for the steppe and desert regions of northern China. From 1964 to 2008 farmland strongly increased (+ 61%), while the area of grassland and forest in the floodplains decreased (- 43%). The urban areas increased threefold and 400 ha of former agricultural land were abandoned. Farmland apparently affected by soil salinity decreased in size from 1990 (1180 ha) to 2008 (630 ha). The vegetated areas of the surrounding rangelands decreased, mainly as a result of overgrazing and drought events.The SMAPC with subsequent post processing revealed the highest classification accuracy. However, the specific landscape characteristics of mountain oasis systems required labour intensive post processing. Further research is needed to test the use of ancillary information for an automated classification of the examined landscape features.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

Assessing trends in land use change in the Borana rangeland Ethiopia as one cause of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration variations

Landnutzungsänderungen sind eine wesentliche Ursache von Treibhausgasemissionen. Die Umwandlung von Ökosystemen mit permanenter natürlicher Vegetation hin zu Ackerbau mit zeitweise vegetationslosem Boden (z.B. nach der Bodenbearbeitung vor der Aussaat) führt häufig zu gesteigerten Treibhausgasemissionen und verminderter Kohlenstoffbindung. Weltweit dehnt sich Ackerbau sowohl in kleinbäuerlichen als auch in agro-industriellen Systemen aus, häufig in benachbarte semiaride bis subhumide Rangeland Ökosysteme. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht Trends der Landnutzungsänderung im Borana Rangeland Südäthiopiens. Bevölkerungswachstum, Landprivatisierung und damit einhergehende Einzäunung, veränderte Landnutzungspolitik und zunehmende Klimavariabilität führen zu raschen Veränderungen der traditionell auf Tierhaltung basierten, pastoralen Systeme. Mittels einer Literaturanalyse von Fallstudien in ostafrikanischen Rangelands wurde im Rahmen dieser Studie ein schematisches Modell der Zusammenhänge von Landnutzung, Treibhausgasemissionen und Kohlenstofffixierung entwickelt. Anhand von Satellitendaten und Daten aus Haushaltsbefragungen wurden Art und Umfang von Landnutzungsänderungen und Vegetationsveränderungen an fünf Untersuchungsstandorten (Darito/Yabelo Distrikt, Soda, Samaro, Haralo, Did Mega/alle Dire Distrikt) zwischen 1985 und 2011 analysiert. In Darito dehnte sich die Ackerbaufläche um 12% aus, überwiegend auf Kosten von Buschland. An den übrigen Standorten blieb die Ackerbaufläche relativ konstant, jedoch nahm Graslandvegetation um zwischen 16 und 28% zu, während Buschland um zwischen 23 und 31% abnahm. Lediglich am Standort Haralo nahm auch „bare land“, vegetationslose Flächen, um 13% zu. Faktoren, die zur Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus führen, wurden am Standort Darito detaillierter untersucht. GPS Daten und anbaugeschichtlichen Daten von 108 Feldern auf 54 Betrieben wurden in einem Geographischen Informationssystem (GIS) mit thematischen Boden-, Niederschlags-, und Hangneigungskarten sowie einem Digitales Höhenmodell überlagert. Multiple lineare Regression ermittelte Hangneigung und geographische Höhe als signifikante Erklärungsvariablen für die Ausdehnung von Ackerbau in niedrigere Lagen. Bodenart, Entfernung zum saisonalen Flusslauf und Niederschlag waren hingegen nicht signifikant. Das niedrige Bestimmtheitsmaß (R²=0,154) weist darauf hin, dass es weitere, hier nicht erfasste Erklärungsvariablen für die Richtung der räumlichen Ausweitung von Ackerland gibt. Streudiagramme zu Ackergröße und Anbaujahren in Relation zu geographischer Höhe zeigen seit dem Jahr 2000 eine Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus in Lagen unter 1620 müNN und eine Zunahme der Schlaggröße (>3ha). Die Analyse der phänologischen Entwicklung von Feldfrüchten im Jahresverlauf in Kombination mit Niederschlagsdaten und normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Zeitreihendaten dienten dazu, Zeitpunkte besonders hoher (Begrünung vor der Ernte) oder niedriger (nach der Bodenbearbeitung) Pflanzenbiomasse auf Ackerland zu identifizieren, um Ackerland und seine Ausdehnung von anderen Vegetationsformen fernerkundlich unterscheiden zu können. Anhand der NDVI Spektralprofile konnte Ackerland gut Wald, jedoch weniger gut von Gras- und Buschland unterschieden werden. Die geringe Auflösung (250m) der Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI Daten führte zu einem Mixed Pixel Effect, d.h. die Fläche eines Pixels beinhaltete häufig verschiedene Vegetationsformen in unterschiedlichen Anteilen, was deren Unterscheidung beeinträchtigte. Für die Entwicklung eines Echtzeit Monitoring Systems für die Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus wären höher auflösende NDVI Daten (z.B. Multispektralband, Hyperion EO-1 Sensor) notwendig, um kleinräumig eine bessere Differenzierung von Ackerland und natürlicher Rangeland-Vegetation zu erhalten. Die Entwicklung und der Einsatz solcher Methoden als Entscheidungshilfen für Land- und Ressourcennutzungsplanung könnte dazu beitragen, Produktions- und Entwicklungsziele der Borana Landnutzer mit nationalen Anstrengungen zur Eindämmung des Klimawandels durch Steigerung der Kohlenstofffixierung in Rangelands in Einklang zu bringen.

Soil fertility and nutrient status of traditional Gayo coffee agroforestry systems in the Takengon region, Aceh Province, Indonesia

Little is known about the traditional coffee cultivation systems in Central Aceh, Indonesia, where coffee production is a major source of income for local Gayo people. Based on field observations and farmer interviews, 14 representative agroforestry coffee plantations of different age classes (60-70 years, 30-40 years, and 20 years) as well as seven adjacent grassland and native forest sites were selected for this study, and soil and coffee leaf samples collected for nutrient analysis. Significant differences in soil and coffee leaf parameters were found between former native forest and Sumatran pine (Pinus merkusii) forest as previous land cover indicating the importance of the land use history for today’s coffee cultivation. Soil pH as well as exchangeable Na and Ca concentrations were significantly lower on coffee plantations compared to grassland and forest sites. Soil C, N, plant available P, exchangeable K, and Mg concentrations showed no consistent differences between land use groups. Nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K) concentrations of coffee leaves were in the sufficiency range, whereas zinc (Zn) contents were found to be consistently below the sufficiency threshold and significantly lower in coffee plantations of previous pine forest cover compared to those of previous native forest cover. While the results of this study provided insights into the nutrient status of coffee plantations in Central Aceh, the heterogeneity of site conditions, limited sampling size, and scarcity of reliable data about the land use history and initial soil conditions of sampled sites preclude more definitive conclusions about the sustainability of the studied systems.

Soil organic carbon management for sustainable land use in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa

Judged by their negative nutrient balances, low soil cover and low productivity, the predominant agro-pastoral farming systems in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa are highly unsustainable for crop production intensification. With kaolinite as the main clay type, the cation exchange capacity of the soils in this region, often less than 1 cmol_c kg^-1 soil, depends heavily on the organic carbon (Corg) content. However, due to low carbon sequestration and to the microbe, termite and temperature-induced rapid turnover rates of organic material in the present land-use systems, Corg contents of the topsoil are very low, ranging between 1 and 8 g kg^-1 in most soils. For sustainable food production, the availability of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) has to be increased considerably in combination with an improvement in soil physical properties. Therefore, the adoption of innovative management options that help to stop or even reverse the decline in Corg typically observed after cultivating bush or rangeland is of utmost importance. To maintain food production for a rapidly growing population, targeted applications of mineral fertilisers and the effective recycling of organic amendments as crop residues and manure are essential. Any increase in soil cover has large effects in reducing topsoil erosion by wind and water and favours the accumulation of wind-blown dust high in bases which in turn improves P availability. In the future decision support systems, based on GIS, modelling and simulation should be used to combine (i) available fertiliser response data from on-station and on-farm research, (ii) results on soil productivity restoration with the application of mineral and organic amendments and (iii) our present understanding of the cause-effect relationships governing the prevailing soil degradation processes. This will help to predict the effectiveness of regionally differentiated soil fertility management approaches to maintain or even increase soil Corg levels.