Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Conceptual knowledge processing with formal concept analysis and ontologies

Among many other knowledge representations formalisms, Ontologies and Formal Concept Analysis (FCA) aim at modeling ‘concepts’. We discuss how these two formalisms may complement another from an application point of view. In particular, we will see how FCA can be used to support Ontology Engineering, and how ontologies can be exploited in FCA applications. The interplay of FCA and ontologies is studied along the life cycle of an ontology: (i) FCA can support the building of the ontology as a learning technique. (ii) The established ontology can be analyzed and navigated by using techniques of FCA. (iii) Last but not least, the ontology may be used to improve an FCA application.

Experimental and modeling studies of forced convection storage and drying systems for sweet potatoes

Sweet potato is an important strategic agricultural crop grown in many countries around the world. The roots and aerial vine components of the crop are used for both human consumption and, to some extent as a cheap source of animal feed. In spite of its economic value and growing contribution to health and nutrition, harvested sweet potato roots and aerial vine components has limited shelf-life and is easily susceptible to post-harvest losses. Although post-harvest losses of both sweet potato roots and aerial vine components is significant, there is no information available that will support the design and development of appropriate storage and preservation systems. In this context, the present study was initiated to improve scientific knowledge about sweet potato post-harvest handling. Additionally, the study also seeks to develop a PV ventilated mud storehouse for storage of sweet potato roots under tropical conditions. In study one, airflow resistance of sweet potato aerial vine components was investigated. The influence of different operating parameters such as airflow rate, moisture content and bulk depth at different levels on airflow resistance was analyzed. All the operating parameters were observed to have significant (P < 0.01) effect on airflow resistance. Prediction models were developed and were found to adequately describe the experimental pressure drop data. In study two, the resistance of airflow through unwashed and clean sweet potato roots was investigated. The effect of sweet potato roots shape factor, surface roughness, orientation to airflow, and presence of soil fraction on airflow resistance was also assessed. The pressure drop through unwashed and clean sweet potato roots was observed to increase with higher airflow, bed depth, root grade composition, and presence of soil fraction. The physical properties of the roots were incorporated into a modified Ergun model and compared with a modified Shedd’s model. The modified Ergun model provided the best fit to the experimental data when compared with the modified Shedd’s model. In study three, the effect of sweet potato root size (medium and large), different air velocity and temperature on the cooling/or heating rate and time of individual sweet potato roots were investigated. Also, a simulation model which is based on the fundamental solution of the transient equations was proposed for estimating the cooling and heating time at the centre of sweet potato roots. The results showed that increasing air velocity during cooling and heating significantly (P < 0.05) affects the cooling and heating times. Furthermore, the cooling and heating times were significantly different (P < 0.05) among medium and large size sweet potato roots. Comparison of the simulation results with experimental data confirmed that the transient simulation model can be used to accurately estimate the cooling and heating times of whole sweet potato roots under forced convection conditions. In study four, the performance of charcoal evaporative cooling pad configurations for integration into sweet potato roots storage systems was investigated. The experiments were carried out at different levels of air velocity, water flow rates, and three pad configurations: single layer pad (SLP), double layers pad (DLP) and triple layers pad (TLP) made out of small and large size charcoal particles. The results showed that higher air velocity has tremendous effect on pressure drop. Increasing the water flow rate above the range tested had no practical benefits in terms of cooling. It was observed that DLP and TLD configurations with larger wet surface area for both types of pads provided high cooling efficiencies. In study five, CFD technique in the ANSYS Fluent software was used to simulate airflow distribution in a low-cost mud storehouse. By theoretically investigating different geometries of air inlet, plenum chamber, and outlet as well as its placement using ANSYS Fluent software, an acceptable geometry with uniform air distribution was selected and constructed. Experimental measurements validated the selected design. In study six, the performance of the developed PV ventilated system was investigated. Field measurements showed satisfactory results of the directly coupled PV ventilated system. Furthermore, the option of integrating a low-cost evaporative cooling system into the mud storage structure was also investigated. The results showed a reduction of ambient temperature inside the mud storehouse while relative humidity was enhanced. The ability of the developed storage system to provide and maintain airflow, temperature and relative humidity which are the key parameters for shelf-life extension of sweet potato roots highlight its ability to reduce post-harvest losses at the farmer level, particularly under tropical climate conditions.

Integrated soil fertility management in eastern and western Africa: The role of knowledge and innovation systems, its adoption and impact

The rise in population growth, as well as nutrient mining, has contributed to low agricultural productivity in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). A plethora of technologies to boost agricultural production have been developed but the dissemination of these agricultural innovations and subsequent uptake by smallholder farmers has remained a challenge. Scientists and philanthropists have adopted the Integrated Soil Fertility Management (ISFM) paradigm as a means to promote sustainable intensification of African farming systems. This comparative study aimed: 1) To assess the efficacy of Agricultural Knowledge and Innovation Systems (AKIS) in East (Kenya) and West (Ghana) Africa in the communication and dissemination of ISFM (Study I); 2) To investigate how specifically soil quality, and more broadly socio-economic status and institutional factors, influence farmer adoption of ISFM (Study II); and 3) To assess the effect of ISFM on maize yield and total household income of smallholder farmers (Study III). To address these aims, a mixed methodology approach was employed for study I. AKIS actors were subjected to social network analysis methods and in-depth interviews. Structured questionnaires were administered to 285 farming households in Tamale and 300 households in Kakamega selected using a stratified random sampling approach. There was a positive relationship between complete ISFM awareness among farmers and weak knowledge ties to both formal and informal actors at both research locations. The Kakamega AKIS revealed a relationship between complete ISFM awareness among farmers and them having strong knowledge ties to formal actors implying that further integration of formal actors with farmers’ local knowledge is crucial for the agricultural development progress. The structured questionnaire was also utilized to answer the query pertaining to study II. Soil samples (0-20 cm depth) were drawn from 322 (Tamale, Ghana) and 459 (Kakamega, Kenya) maize plots and analysed non-destructively for various soil fertility indicators. Ordinal regression modeling was applied to assess the cumulative adoption of ISFM. According to model estimates, soil carbon seemed to preclude farmers from intensifying input use in Tamale, whereas in Kakamega it spurred complete adoption. This varied response by farmers to soil quality conditions is multifaceted. From the Tamale perspective, it is consistent with farmers’ tendency to judiciously allocate scarce resources. Viewed from the Kakamega perspective, it points to a need for farmers here to intensify agricultural production in order to foster food security. In Kakamega, farmers with more acidic soils were more likely to adopt ISFM. Other household and farm-level factors necessary for ISFM adoption included off-farm income, livestock ownership, farmer associations, and market inter-linkages. Finally, in study III a counterfactual model was used to calculate the difference in outcomes (yield and household income) of the treatment (ISFM adoption) in order to estimate causal effects of ISFM adoption. Adoption of ISFM contributed to a yield increase of 16% in both Tamale and Kakamega. The innovation affected total household income only in Tamale, where ISFM adopters had an income gain of 20%. This may be attributable to the different policy contexts under which the two sets of farmers operate. The main recommendations underscored the need to: (1) improve the functioning of AKIS, (2) enhance farmer access to hybrid maize seed and credit, (3) and conduct additional multi-locational studies as farmers operate under varying contexts.