Das Einzugsgebiet der Fulda - Untersuchung der Methoden der Hochwasserstatistik im Zeichen des Klimawandels

Numerous studies have proven an effect of a probable climate change on the hydrosphere’s different subsystems. In the 21st century global and regional redistribution of water has to be expected and it is very likely that extreme weather phenomenon will occur more frequently. From a global view the flood situation will exacerbate. In contrast to these discoveries the classical approach of flood frequency analysis provides terms like “mean flood recurrence interval”. But for this analysis to be valid there is a need for the precondition of stationary distribution parameters which implies that the flood frequencies are constant in time. Newer approaches take into account extreme value distributions with time-dependent parameters. But the latter implies a discard of the mentioned old terminology that has been used up-to-date in engineering hydrology. On the regional scale climate change affects the hydrosphere in various ways. So, the question appears to be whether in central Europe the classical approach of flood frequency analysis is not usable anymore and whether the traditional terminology should be renewed. In the present case study hydro-meteorological time series of the Fulda catchment area (6930 km²), upstream of the gauging station Bonaforth, are analyzed for the time period 1960 to 2100. At first a distributed catchment area model (SWAT2005) is build up, calibrated and finally validated. The Edertal reservoir is regulated as well by a feedback control of the catchments output in case of low water. Due to this intricacy a special modeling strategy has been necessary: The study area is divided into three SWAT basin models and an additional physically-based reservoir model is developed. To further improve the streamflow predictions of the SWAT model, a correction by an artificial neural network (ANN) has been tested successfully which opens a new way to improve hydrological models. With this extension the calibration and validation of the SWAT model for the Fulda catchment area is improved significantly. After calibration of the model for the past 20th century observed streamflow, the SWAT model is driven by high resolution climate data of the regional model REMO using the IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, to generate future runoff time series for the 21th century for the various sub-basins in the study area. In a second step flood time series HQ(a) are derived from the 21st century runoff time series (scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Then these flood projections are extensively tested with regard to stationarity, homogeneity and statistical independence. All these tests indicate that the SWAT-predicted 21st-century trends in the flood regime are not significant. Within the projected time the members of the flood time series are proven to be stationary and independent events. Hence, the classical stationary approach of flood frequency analysis can still be used within the Fulda catchment area, notwithstanding the fact that some regional climate change has been predicted using the IPCC scenarios. It should be noted, however, that the present results are not transferable to other catchment areas. Finally a new method is presented that enables the calculation of extreme flood statistics, even if the flood time series is non-stationary and also if the latter exhibits short- and longterm persistence. This method, which is called Flood Series Maximum Analysis here, enables the calculation of maximum design floods for a given risk- or safety level and time period.

Photovoltaic hybrid systems for rural electrification in the Mekong countries

In rural areas of the Mekong Countries, the problem of electricity supplying rural communities is particularly alarming. Supplying power to these areas requires facilities that are not economically viable. However, government programs are under way to provide this product that is vital to community well being. A nation priority of Mekong Countries is to provide electrical power to people in rural areas, within normal budgetary constraints. Electricity must be introduced into rural areas in such a way that maximize the technical, economic and social benefit. Another consideration is the source of electrical generation and the effects on the natural environment. The main research purpose is to implement field tests, monitoring and evaluation of the PV-Diesel Hybrid System (PVHS) at the Energy Park of School of Renewable Energy Technology (SERT) in order to test the PVSH working under the meteorological conditions of the Mekong Countries and to develop a software simulation called RES, which studies the technical and economic performance of rural electrification options. This software must be easy to use and understand for the energy planner on rural electrification projects, to evaluate the technical and economic performance of the PVHS based on the renewable energy potential for rural electrification of the Mekong Country by using RES. Finally, this project aims to give guidance for the possible use of PVHS application in this region, particularly in regard to its technical and economic sustainability. PVHS should be promoted according to the principles of proper design and adequate follow up with maintenance, so that the number of satisfied users will be achieved. PVHS is not the only possible technology for rural electrification, but for the Mekong Countries it is one of the most proper choices. Other renewable energy options such as wind, biomass and hydro power need to be studied in future.