Individual Decision-Making and Inflation Persistence

The traditional task of a central bank is to preserve price stability and, in doing so, not to impair the real economy more than necessary. To meet this challenge, it is of great relevance whether inflation is only driven by inflation expectations and the current output gap or whether it is, in addition, influenced by past inflation. In the former case, as described by the New Keynesian Phillips curve, the central bank can immediately and simultaneously achieve price stability and equilibrium output, the so-called ‘divine coincidence’ (Blanchard and Galí 2007). In the latter case, the achievement of price stability is costly in terms of output and will be pursued over several periods. Similarly, it is important to distinguish this latter case, which describes ‘intrinsic’ inflation persistence, from that of ‘extrinsic’ inflation persistence, where the sluggishness of inflation is not a ‘structural’ feature of the economy but merely ‘inherited’ from the sluggishness of the other driving forces, inflation expectations and output. ‘Extrinsic’ inflation persistence is usually considered to be the less challenging case, as policy-makers are supposed to fight against the persistence in the driving forces, especially to reduce the stickiness of inflation expectations by a credible monetary policy, in order to reestablish the ‘divine coincidence’. The scope of this dissertation is to contribute to the vast literature and ongoing discussion on inflation persistence: Chapter 1 describes the policy consequences of inflation persistence and summarizes the empirical and theoretical literature. Chapter 2 compares two models of staggered price setting, one with a fixed two-period duration and the other with a stochastic duration of prices. I show that in an economy with a timeless optimizing central bank the model with the two-period alternating price-setting (for most parameter values) leads to more persistent inflation than the model with stochastic price duration. This result amends earlier work by Kiley (2002) who found that the model with stochastic price duration generates more persistent inflation in response to an exogenous monetary shock. Chapter 3 extends the two-period alternating price-setting model to the case of 3- and 4-period price durations. This results in a more complex Phillips curve with a negative impact of past inflation on current inflation. As simulations show, this multi-period Phillips curve generates a too low degree of autocorrelation and too early turnings points of inflation and is outperformed by a simple Hybrid Phillips curve. Chapter 4 starts from the critique of Driscoll and Holden (2003) on the relative real-wage model of Fuhrer and Moore (1995). While taking the critique seriously that Fuhrer and Moore’s model will collapse to a much simpler one without intrinsic inflation persistence if one takes their arguments literally, I extend the model by a term for inequality aversion. This model extension is not only in line with experimental evidence but results in a Hybrid Phillips curve with inflation persistence that is observably equivalent to that presented by Fuhrer and Moore (1995). In chapter 5, I present a model that especially allows to study the relationship between fairness attitudes and time preference (impatience). In the model, two individuals take decisions in two subsequent periods. In period 1, both individuals are endowed with resources and are able to donate a share of their resources to the other individual. In period 2, the two individuals might join in a common production after having bargained on the split of its output. The size of the production output depends on the relative share of resources at the end of period 1 as the human capital of the individuals, which is built by means of their resources, cannot fully be substituted one against each other. Therefore, it might be rational for a well-endowed individual in period 1 to act in a seemingly ‘fair’ manner and to donate own resources to its poorer counterpart. This decision also depends on the individuals’ impatience which is induced by the small but positive probability that production is not possible in period 2. As a general result, the individuals in the model economy are more likely to behave in a ‘fair’ manner, i.e., to donate resources to the other individual, the lower their own impatience and the higher the productivity of the other individual. As the (seemingly) ‘fair’ behavior is modelled as an endogenous outcome and as it is related to the aspect of time preference, the presented framework might help to further integrate behavioral economics and macroeconomics.

Electronic structure calculations of small AI_n (n = 2 - 8) clusters

The electronic states of small AI_n (n = 2 - 8) clusters have been calculated with a relativistic ab-initio MOLCAO Dirac-Fock-Slater method using numerical atomic DFS wave-functions. The excitation energies were obtained from a ground state calculation of neutral clusters, and in addition from negative clusters charged by half an electron in order to account for part of the relaxation. These energies are compared with experimental photoelectron spectra.

Theory for Optical Absorption in Small Clusters: Dependence on Atomic Structure and Cluster Size

We present a theory which permits for the first time a detailed analysis of the dependence of the absorption spectrum on atomic structure and cluster size. Thus, we determine the development of the collective excitations in small clusters and show that their broadening depends sensitively on the tomic structure, in particular at the surface. Results for Hg_n^+ clusters show that the plasmon energy is close to its jellium value in the case of spherical-like structures, but is in general between w_p/ \wurzel{3} and w_p/ \wurzel{2} for compact clusters. A particular success of our theory is the identification of the excitations contributing to the absorption peaks.

Unrestricted hartree-fock calculation of the ionization potential of small Hg_n clusters

The ionization potential of small Hg_n clusters has been calculated. For the first time good agreement with experimental results has been obtained. It is shown that interatomic Coulomb interactions are important. The energy of Hg_n^+ is calculated using the unrestricted inhomogeneous Hartree-Fock approximation. As a consequence of a change in the charge distribution in Hg_n^+ , we obtain an abrupt change in the slope of the ionization potential at the critical cluster size n_cr ~ 14. The presented results are expected to be valid for covalent clusters in between ionized van der Waals clusters and metallic clusters.

Slave-boson approach to the size-dependent transition from van der Waals to covalent bonding in Hg_n clusters

We use a microscopic theory to describe the dynamics of the valence electrons in divalent-metal clusters. The theory is based on a many-body model Harniltonian H which takes into account, on the same electronic level, the van der Waals and the covalent bonding. In order to study the ground-state properties of H we have developed an extended slave-boson method. We have studied the bonding character and the degree of electronic delocalization in Hg_n clusters as a function of cluster size. Results show that, for increasing cluster size, an abrupt change occurs in the bond character from van der Waals to covalent bonding at a critical cluster size n_c ~ 10-20. This change also involves a transition from localized to delocalized valence electrons, as a consequence of the competition between both bonding mechanisms.

Study of individual lactation patterns of Iranian dairy buffaloes

The aims of the current study were 1) to investigate the effects of some environmental factors on lactation curve traits (LCTs) including initial milk yield (A), peak yield (PY), days to attain peak yield (PD), inclining- and declining slope of lactation (B and C, respectively), persistency (Per), and 240-d milk yield, and 2) to estimate pairwise phenotypic correlations between these traits in two Iranian buffalo ecotypes (Khuzestani and Azeri buffaloes). The dataset consisted of 15396 and 9283 lactations from 6632 Khuzestani and 3558 Azeri buffaloes, respectively (collected during 1992–2009). The results revealed that almost all of the factors had significant effects on the majority of the LCTs, whereby age group, parity and season of calving had greater influence on 240-d milk yield and PY than the other LCTs in both of the ecotypes. These effects were more apparent in Khuzestani buffaloes than in Azeri buffaloes. In the Khuzestani ecotype, the LCTs were significantly correlated with each other. However, in the Azeri ecotype the 240-d milk yield showed no significant relationship with parameters B, PD and Per. In conclusion, the studied factors play an important role in determining both the shape of the lactation curve and the overal performance of Iranian dairy buffaloes.