Das Einzugsgebiet der Fulda - Untersuchung der Methoden der Hochwasserstatistik im Zeichen des Klimawandels

Numerous studies have proven an effect of a probable climate change on the hydrosphere’s different subsystems. In the 21st century global and regional redistribution of water has to be expected and it is very likely that extreme weather phenomenon will occur more frequently. From a global view the flood situation will exacerbate. In contrast to these discoveries the classical approach of flood frequency analysis provides terms like “mean flood recurrence interval”. But for this analysis to be valid there is a need for the precondition of stationary distribution parameters which implies that the flood frequencies are constant in time. Newer approaches take into account extreme value distributions with time-dependent parameters. But the latter implies a discard of the mentioned old terminology that has been used up-to-date in engineering hydrology. On the regional scale climate change affects the hydrosphere in various ways. So, the question appears to be whether in central Europe the classical approach of flood frequency analysis is not usable anymore and whether the traditional terminology should be renewed. In the present case study hydro-meteorological time series of the Fulda catchment area (6930 km²), upstream of the gauging station Bonaforth, are analyzed for the time period 1960 to 2100. At first a distributed catchment area model (SWAT2005) is build up, calibrated and finally validated. The Edertal reservoir is regulated as well by a feedback control of the catchments output in case of low water. Due to this intricacy a special modeling strategy has been necessary: The study area is divided into three SWAT basin models and an additional physically-based reservoir model is developed. To further improve the streamflow predictions of the SWAT model, a correction by an artificial neural network (ANN) has been tested successfully which opens a new way to improve hydrological models. With this extension the calibration and validation of the SWAT model for the Fulda catchment area is improved significantly. After calibration of the model for the past 20th century observed streamflow, the SWAT model is driven by high resolution climate data of the regional model REMO using the IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, to generate future runoff time series for the 21th century for the various sub-basins in the study area. In a second step flood time series HQ(a) are derived from the 21st century runoff time series (scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Then these flood projections are extensively tested with regard to stationarity, homogeneity and statistical independence. All these tests indicate that the SWAT-predicted 21st-century trends in the flood regime are not significant. Within the projected time the members of the flood time series are proven to be stationary and independent events. Hence, the classical stationary approach of flood frequency analysis can still be used within the Fulda catchment area, notwithstanding the fact that some regional climate change has been predicted using the IPCC scenarios. It should be noted, however, that the present results are not transferable to other catchment areas. Finally a new method is presented that enables the calculation of extreme flood statistics, even if the flood time series is non-stationary and also if the latter exhibits short- and longterm persistence. This method, which is called Flood Series Maximum Analysis here, enables the calculation of maximum design floods for a given risk- or safety level and time period.

Nitrogen requirements of cassava in selected soils of Thailand

Cassava (Manihot esculenta) is one of the most important export crops in Thailand, yet the nitrogen requirement is unknown and not considered by growers and producers. Cassava requirements for N were determined in field experiments during a period of four years and four sites on the Satuk (Suk), Don Chedi (Dc), Pak Chong (Pc),and Ban Beung (BBg) soil series in Lopburi, Supanburi, Nakhon Ratchasima, and Chonburi sites, respectively. The fertilizer treatment structure comprised 0, 62.5, 125, 187.5, 250 and 312.5 kg N ha^(-1) as urea. At each site cassava was harvested at nine months and yield parameters and the minimum datasets were taken. The fertilizer rate which resulted in maximum yield ranged from 187.5 kg N ha^(-1) in Supanburi and Chonburi (fresh weight yield of 47,500 and 30,000 kg ha^(-1) respectively) to 250 kg N ha^(-1) in Lopburi and Nakhon Ratchasima (fresh weight yield of 64,100 and 46,700 kg ha^(-1) respectively). Yield appeared to decrease at the higher, 312 kg ha^(-1), at Supanburi and Lopburi, and 250 kg ha^(-1) (Chonburi) fertilizer N rates. Net revenue was 70.4 and 72.9 % higher than where no N was appliedLopburi and Nakhon Ratchasima sites. Net revenue at the Supanburi and Chonburi sites were 53.8 and 211.0 % higher than that where no N was applied. This study suggests that at all sites improved cassava production and net revenue could be obtained with the judicious application of higher quantities of N. The results provide needed guidance to nitrogen fertilization of the important industrial crop cassava in Thailand.