A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Higher Education Governance in Vietnam: University Action, the State and Changing Relationships

Diese Dissertation stellt eine Studie da, welche sich mit den Änderungen in der Governance der Hochschulbildung in Vietnam beschäftigt. Das zentrale Ziel dieser Forschungsarbeit ist die Untersuchung der Herkunft und Änderung in der Beziehung der Mächte zwischen dem vietnamesischen Staat und den Hochschulbildungsinstituten (HI), welche hauptsächlich aus der Interaktion dieser beiden Akteure resultiert. Die Macht dieser beiden Akteure wurde im sozialen Bereich konstruiert und ist hauptsächlich durch ihre Nützlichkeit und Beiträge für die Hochschulbildung bestimmt. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich dabei besonders mit dem Aspekt der Lehrqualität. Diese Studie nimmt dabei die Perspektive einer allgemeinen Governance ein, um die Beziehung zwischen Staat und HI zu erforschen. Zudem verwendet sie die „Resource Dependence Theory“ (RDT), um das Verhalten der HI in Bezug auf die sich verändernde Umgebung zu untersuchen, welche durch die Politik und eine abnehmende Finanzierung charakterisiert ist. Durch eine empirische Untersuchung der Regierungspolitik sowie der internen Steuerung und den Praktiken der vier führenden Universitäten kommt die Studie zu dem Schluss, dass unter Berücksichtigung des Drucks der Schaffung von Einkommen die vietnamesischen Universitäten sowohl Strategien als auch Taktiken entwickelt haben, um Ressourcenflüsse und Legitimität zu kontrollieren. Die Entscheidungs- und Zielfindung der Komitees, die aus einer Mehrheit von Akademikern bestehen, sind dabei mächtiger als die der Manager. Daher werden bei initiativen Handlungen der Universitäten größtenteils Akademiker mit einbezogen. Gestützt auf die sich entwickelnden Muster der Ressourcenbeiträge von Akademikern und Studierenden für die Hochschulbildung prognostiziert die Studie eine aufstrebende Governance Konfiguration, bei der die Dimensionen der akademischen Selbstverwaltung und des Wettbewerbsmarktes stärker werden und die Regulation des Staates rational zunimmt. Das derzeitige institutionelle Design und administrative System des Landes, die spezifische Gewichtung und die Koordinationsmechanismen, auch als sogenanntes effektives Aufsichtssystem zwischen den drei Schlüsselakteuren - der Staat, die HI/Akademiker und die Studierenden – bezeichnet, brauchen eine lange Zeit zur Detektion und Etablierung. In der aktuellen Phase der Suche nach einem solchen System sollte die Regierung Management-Tools stärken, wie zum Beispiel die Akkreditierung, belohnende und marktbasierte Instrumente und das Treffen informations-basierter Entscheidungen. Darüber hinaus ist es notwendig die Transparenz der Politik zu erhöhen und mehr Informationen offenzulegen.

Effects of changing water availability on land use in irrigated mountain oases of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, northern Oman

In Oman, during the last three decades, agricultural water use and groundwater extraction has dramatically increased to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and major changes in lifestyle. This has triggered agricultural land-use changes which have been poorly investigated. In view of this our study aimed at analysing patterns of shortterm land-use changes (2007-2009) in the five irrigated mountain oases of Ash Sharayjah, Al’Ayn, Al’Aqr, Qasha’ and Masayrat ar Ruwajah situated in the northern Oman Hajar mountains of Al Jabal Al Akhdar where competitive uses of irrigation water are particularly apparent. Comprehensive GIS-based field surveys were conducted over three years to record changes in terrace use in these five oases where farmers have traditionally adapted to rain-derived variations of irrigation water supply, e.g. by leaving agricultural terraces of annual crops uncultivated in drought years. Results show that the area occupied with field crops decreased in the dry years of 2008 and 2009 for all oases. In Ash Sharayjah, terrace areas grown with field crops declined from 4.7 ha (32.4 % of total terrace area) in 2007 to 3.1 ha (21.6 %) in 2008 and 3.0 ha (20.5 %) in 2009. Similarly, the area proportion of field crops shrunk in Al’Ayn, Qasha’ and Masayrat from 35.2, 36.3 and 49.6 % in 2007 to 19.8, 8.5 and 41.3 % in 2009, respectively. In Al’Aqr, the area of field crops slightly increased from 0.3 ha (17.0 %) in 2007 to 0.7 (39.1 %) in 2008, and decreased to 0.5 ha (28.8 %) in 2009. During the same period annual dry matter yields of the cash crop garlic in Ash Sharayjah increased from 16.3 t ha-1 in 2007 to 19.8 t ha-1 in 2008 and 18.3 t ha-1 in 2009, while the same crop yielded only 0.4, 1.6 and 1.1 t ha-1 in Masayrat. In 2009, the total estimated agricultural area of the new town of Sayh Qatanah above the five oases was around 13.5 ha. Our results suggest that scarcity of irrigation water as a result of low precipitation and increased irrigation and home water consumption in the new urban settlements above the five oases have led to major shifts in the land-use pattern and increasingly threaten the centuries-long tradition and drought-resilience of agriculture in the oases of the studied watershed.