Factors influencing the success of animal husbandry cooperatives: A case study in Southwest Iran

This survey study aimed at identifying the factors influencing the success of animal husbandry cooperatives in Southwest Iran. Using a questionnaire, the data were collected from 95 managing directors of the cooperatives who were chosen through a multi-stage stratified random sampling method. This study showed an essential need for a systemic framework to analyze the cooperatives’ success. The results showed that the “Honey Bee”, “Cattle (dairy)”, and “Lamb” cooperatives were the most successful among different kinds of the cooperatives. Also, among individual attributes, “interest”, “technical knowledge”, and “understanding the concept of cooperative”; among economic variables, “income” and “current investment”; and among external factors, “market access” have significant correlation with the success while structural variables have no significant relation. Furthermore, among all the factors, four variables (“interest”, “understanding the concept of cooperative”, “market access”, and “other incomes”) can explain the variations of the success.

The Effect of Climate Variability on Main Components of Cow Milk in Iran

The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between six bioclimatic indices for cattle (temperature humidity (THI), environmental stress (ESI), equivalent temperature (ESI), heat load (HLI), modified heat load (HLInew) and respiratory rate predictor(RRP)) and fundamental milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when cows use natural pasture, with possibility for cows to choose to stay in the barn or to graze on the pasture in the pasturing system. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty estimation through resampling in the confidence intervals. To find the relationships between climate indices (THI, ETI, HLI, HLInew, ESI and RRP) and main components of cow milk (fat, protein and yield), multiple liner regression is applied. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Based on results of investigation the effect of heat stress indices on milk compounds separately, we suggest the use of ESI and RRP in the summer and ESI in the spring. THI and HLInew are suggested for fat content and HLInew also is suggested for protein content in the spring season. The best linear models are found in spring between milk yield as predictands and THI, ESI,HLI, ETI and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 0.50, 0.49. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. It is strongly suggested that new and significant indices are needed to control critical heat stress conditions that consider more predictors of the effect of climate variability on animal products, such as sunshine duration, quality of pasture, the number of days of stress (NDS), the color of skin with attention to large black spots, and categorical predictors such as breed, welfare facility, and management system. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food quality/security, animal science and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty or data collection is expensive, difficult, or data with gaps.

Settlement history of a mountain oasis in Northern Oman

To unravel the settlement history of oases in northern Oman, data on topography, the agricultural setting, water and soil parameters and archaeological findings were collected in the Wadi Bani Awf with its head oasis Balad Seet. Data collection lasted from April 2000 to April 2003 and was based on the establishment of a 3D-georeferenced map of the oasis comprising all its major infrastructural and agronomic features. At today's Balad Seet, a total of 8.8 ha are planted to 2,800 date palms and 4.6 ha are divided into 385 small fields dedicated to wheat, barley, sorghum, oats, alfalfa, garlic, onion, lime and banana. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal in the lower part of the main terrace system determined its age to 911 ± 43 years. Monthly flow measurements of four major aflaj systems showed a total maximum flow of 32 m^3 h^-1 with the largest falaj contributing 78% of the total flow. During drought periods, average water flow decreased by 3% per month, however, with significant differences between the spring systems. The analysis of the tritium/^3helium ratio in the water led to an estimated water age of up to 10 years. In combination with the flow data, this provided insights into the elasticity of the spring flow over time. The use of the natural resources of the Wadi Bani Awf by a pastoral population started probably in the early 3rd millennium BC. The first permanent settlement might have been established at Balad Seet during the first part of the 1st millennium BC. Presumably it was initiated by settlers from al-Hamra, a village at the southern foot of the Hajar mountains. Given an abundant und stable flow of springs, even in periods of drought, the construction of Balad Seet's first irrigation systems may have occurred at this early time. The combination of topographic, agricultural, hydro-pedological and archaeological data allowed assessment of the carrying capacity of this oasis over the three millennia of its likely existence. The changing scarcity of land and water and the eventual optimisation of their use by different aflaj constructions have been major driving forces for the development and apparent relativeley stable existence of this oasis.

Agricultural, architectural and archaeological evidence for the role and ecological adaptation of a scattered mountain oasis in Oman

The recent discovery of the monumental 5000 years old tower tombs on top of the up to 1850 m high Shir plateau has raised numerous questions about the economic and infrastructural basis of the agro-pastoral-piscicultural society which likely has constructed them. The scattered oasis settlement of Maqta, situated just below the towers in a rugged desert environment has therefore been studied from 2001 to 2003 to understand its prehistoric and present role along the ancient trade route which connected the inner-Omani Sharqiya across the southern Hajar mountains with the ocean port of Tiwi. Maqta consists of a central area with 59 buildings and 12 scattered temporary settlements comprising a total of about 200 semi-nomadic inhabitants and next to 900 sheep and goats. The 22 small springs with a flow rate between 5 and 1212-l h^-1 are watering 16 terrace systems totaling 4.5 ha of which 2.9 ha are planted to date palms (Phoenix dactylifera L.), 0.4 ha to wheat landraces (Triticum durum and Triticum aestivum) during the cooler winter months, 0.4 are left fallow and 0.8 h are abandoned. During a pronounced drought period from 2001 to 2003, the springs’ flow rate declined between 38% and 72%. Most of the recent buildings of the central housing area were found empty or used as temporary stores by the agro-pastoral population watching their flocks on the surrounding dry mountains. There is no indication that there ever was a settlement older than the present one. A number of Hafit (3100–2700 BC) and Umm an-Nar (2700–2000 BC) tombs just above the central housing area and further along one of the trade routes to the coast are the only indication of an old pastoral landuse in Maqta territory where oasis agriculture may have entered only well after 1000 AD. With this little evidence of existence during the 3rd millennium BC, Maqta is unlikely to have played any major role favouring the construction of the nearby monumental Shir tower tombs other than providing water for herders and their flocks, early migrant traders or tower tomb constructors.

A pilot investigation of the relationship between climate variability and milk compounds under the bootstrap technique

This study analyzes the linear relationship between climate variables and milk components in Iran by applying bootstrapping to include and assess the uncertainty. The climate parameters, Temperature Humidity Index (THI) and Equivalent Temperature Index (ETI) are computed from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis (2002–2010). Milk data for fat, protein (measured on fresh matter bases), and milk yield are taken from 936,227 milk records for the same period, using cows fed by natural pasture from April to September. Confidence intervals for the regression model are calculated using the bootstrap technique. This method is applied to the original times series, generating statistically equivalent surrogate samples. As a result, despite the short time data and the related uncertainties, an interesting behavior of the relationships between milk compound and the climate parameters is visible. During spring only, a weak dependency of milk yield and climate variations is obvious, while fat and protein concentrations show reasonable correlations. In summer, milk yield shows a similar level of relationship with ETI, but not with temperature and THI. We suggest this methodology for studies in the field of the impacts of climate change and agriculture, also environment and food with short-term data.