Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

Ontology merging with formal concept analysis

Ontologies have been established for knowledge sharing and are widely used as a means for conceptually structuring domains of interest. With the growing usage of ontologies, the problem of overlapping knowledge in a common domain becomes critical. In this short paper, we address two methods for merging ontologies based on Formal Concept Analysis: FCA-Merge and ONTEX. --- FCA-Merge is a method for merging ontologies following a bottom-up approach which offers a structural description of the merging process. The method is guided by application-specific instances of the given source ontologies. We apply techniques from natural language processing and formal concept analysis to derive a lattice of concepts as a structural result of FCA-Merge. The generated result is then explored and transformed into the merged ontology with human interaction. --- ONTEX is a method for systematically structuring the top-down level of ontologies. It is based on an interactive, top-down- knowledge acquisition process, which assures that the knowledge engineer considers all possible cases while avoiding redundant acquisition. The method is suited especially for creating/merging the top part(s) of the ontologies, where high accuracy is required, and for supporting the merging of two (or more) ontologies on that level.

Development of an ArcGIS extension to model urban climate factors

The possibility to develop automatically running models which can capture some of the most important factors driving the urban climate would be very useful for many planning aspects. With the help of these modulated climate data, the creation of the typically used “Urban Climate Maps” (UCM) will be accelerated and facilitated. This work describes the development of a special ArcGIS software extension, along with two support databases to achieve this functionality. At the present time, lacking comparability between different UCMs and imprecise planning advices going along with the significant technical problems of manually creating conventional maps are central issues. Also inflexibility and static behaviour are reducing the maps’ practicality. From experi-ence, planning processes are formed more productively, namely to implant new planning parameters directly via the existing work surface to map the impact of the data change immediately, if pos-sible. In addition to the direct climate figures, information of other planning areas (like regional characteristics / developments etc.) have to be taken into account to create the UCM as well. Taking all these requirements into consideration, an automated calculation process of urban climate impact parameters will serve to increase the creation of homogenous UCMs efficiently.