Re-Framing Trade

Given the substantial and increasing encroachment of trade agreements into almost every aspect of economic and social life, there is a pressing need for research that provides a more coherent framework for understanding the source and effectiveness of organised labour ’s power and capacity to influence international trade policy. Taking the union protests against the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS) as a case study, this research uses core concepts derived from social movement theory to analyse the opportunities that existed for unions to influence these trade negotiations and their capacity to identify and take advantage of such opportunities. Importantly, it adds a power analysis designed to reveal the sources of power that unions draw on to take action. The research demonstrates that even where unions faced considerable constraints they were able to re-frame trade issues in a way that built broad support for their position and to utilise opportunities in the trade negotiation process to mobilise resistance against the GATS and further liberalisation of services. The theoretical framework developed for the research provides conceptual tools that can be developed for improving strategic campaign planning and for analytical assessment of past campaigns. The theoretical framework developed for this research has potential for further application as an analytical and strategic planning tool for unions.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Ἐμπόρια

Die Arbeit mit dem Titel "Ἐμπόρια- Eine wirtschafts- und kulturhistorische Studie zu den Handelsbeziehungen zwischen dem Imperium Romanum und Indien (1. - 3. Jh. n. Chr.)" ist in die antike Wirtschaftsgeschichte einzuordnen, beinhaltet aber auch kulturhistorische Aspekte. Der Fokus der untersuchten Austauschbeziehungen liegt auf der maritimen Route zwischen den Häfen des Roten Meeres und der Westküste Indiens. Vom ägyptischen Alexandria aus, wo die Waren aus dem gesamten Imperium Romanum verhandelt wurden, verschifften die Kaufleute ihre Exportprodukte über den Nil in das mittelägyptische Koptos. Von dort aus transportierten Lasttiere (Esel und Kamele) die Waren auf verschiedenen Routen an die Häfen des Roten Meeres (Myos Hormos und Berenike). Mit dem Monsun im Juli stachen die Schiffe in See und fuhren über offenes Gewässer zu den Handelsplätzen Indiens. Die Bedeutendsten von ihnen befanden sich an der Indusmündung, an der Mündung des Narmada und an der Malabarküste. Alternativ befuhren die Kaufleute die Route entlang der arabischen Küste, nach Indien. Wie die Europäer der neuzeitlichen europäischen Expansion, waren die Römer vor allem an Rohstoffen interessiert: Verschiedene Gewürze Asiens, Perlen und Edelsteine, sowie Baumwoll- und Seidenstoffe. Im Gegenzug brachten die Kaufleute aus dem Westen Rohstoffe und Fertigwaren auf den Subkontinent, vor allem: Glaswaren, bunte Kleidung und Stoffe, Metalle, Edelsteine, Pigmente und römische Münzen. In dieser Arbeit wird das Zahlenmaterial zum römischen Indienhandel, in Form Quantitativer Studien, nach Vorbild R. Duncan-Jones (The Economy of the Roman Empire. Quantitative Studies, Cambridge 1974), gesammelt und ausgewertet. Dieses Zahlenmaterial ermöglicht eine Einschätzung der ökonomischen Größenordnung des antiken Indienhandels. Im Anschluss daran werden die Handelswaren aus Indien, unter dem Aspekt des römischen Luxusdiskurses, untersucht. Dazu wurden die überlieferten Senatssitzungen, die sich mit dem Thema luxuria beschäftigen, thematisiert. Abschließend werden die indischen Handelsplätze anhand des Port of Trade Modells, wie es Karl Polanyi entwickelte, ausgewertet. Die dazu verwendeten Merkmale orientieren sich an Astrid Möllers Untersuchung zum ägyptischen Handelsplatz Naukratis.

From Market- to Development Orientation - The Trade Aspect of Food Security and Agriculture

Trade rules are suggested to be one of the reasons for the hunger in the world and environmental damage. As current trade rules encourage market orientation and therefore specialization and industrialization of agriculture, which has as side effects rural hunger and environmental damage, there is room for improvement in the international trade regime. One main finding of Nexus Foundations' work in Geneva is a possible new orientation for agricultural and food markets – an orientation on development, rather than purely on markets. This development orientation consists of several elements from development of soil fertility to local markets and consumer relatedness. Since the Bali Ministerial in 2013, the WTO has set up a four year work programme on the issue of food security related to food reserves. This opens the chance to discuss broader food security issues in the realm of trade negotiations.