Applying Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator and Akaike Information Criterion Analysis to Find the Best Multiple Linear Regression Models between Climate Indices and Components of Cow’s Milk

This study focuses on multiple linear regression models relating six climate indices (temperature humidity THI, environmental stress ESI, equivalent temperature index ETI, heat load HLI, modified HLI (HLI new), and respiratory rate predictor RRP) with three main components of cow’s milk (yield, fat, and protein) for cows in Iran. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Uncertainty estimation is employed by applying bootstrapping through resampling. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Climatic parameters are calculated from the NASA-MERRA global atmospheric reanalysis. Milk data for the months from April to September, 2002 to 2010 are used. The best linear regression models are found in spring between milk yield as the predictand and THI, ESI, ETI, HLI, and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 (0.50, 0.49) respectively. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI, and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. This method is suggested for the impact studies of climate variability/change on agriculture and food science fields when short-time series or data with large uncertainty are available.

Charakterisierung von Möhren und Weizen aus ökologischem und konventionellem Anbau anhand ihrer Carotinoid- und Polyphenolkonzentration

Kurzfassung: Der Markt für ökologische Lebensmittel wächst stark. Verbraucher kaufen Produkte aus ökologischem Landbau aus einer Vielzahl von Gründen. Ein Teil dieser Gründe lässt sich nicht auf die Produktqualität zurückführen, sondern beruht auf der Annahme, dass sich der Produktionsprozess des Ökologischen Landbaus hinsichtlich der Schonung von Umweltressourcen, der Nachhaltigkeit der Produktion und sozialen Komponenten vom konventionellen Anbau unterscheidet. Daneben spielt der Wunsch nach einer gesunden Ernährung eine Rolle. Ökologische Lebensmittel können als Vertrauensgüter verstanden werden. Lebensmittelskandale machten in den vergangenen Jahren auch vor ökologischen Lebens¬mitteln nicht Halt. Folgerichtig erschütterte dies das Vertrauen der Verbraucher in ökologische Produkte. Mit steigender Produktion könnte die Gefahr, das weitere solche Ereignisse auftreten, steigen. Daher besteht Bedarf für Methoden, die die ökologische Produktqualität im Sinne einer Authentizitätsprüfung prüfen. Eine solche Prüfung könnte sich auf die Analyse sekundärer Pflanzenstoffe stützen. Diese Gruppe von Pflanzeninhaltsstoffen spielt bei der Diskussion um die besondere Qualität ökologischer Pflanzenprodukte eine große Rolle. Postuliert wird, dass ökologisch angebaute Pflanzen mangels mineralischer Düngung und mangels Schädlingsbekämpfung mit synthetischen Pestiziden einem erhöhten Stress ausgesetzt sind. Dies soll sich in einem höheren Niveau der mit den Selbstverteidigungsmechanismen der Pflanze eng verbundenen sekundären Pflanzenstoffe ausdrücken. Wichtige Untergruppen der sekundären Pflanzenstoffe sind Carotinoide und Polyphenole. An Weizen (Triticum aestivum L. und Triticum durum L.) und Möhre (Daucus carota L.) als für den ökologischen Landbau wichtigen Produkten wurden Messungen der Carotinoid- und Polyphenolkonzentration mit dem Ziel durchgeführt, die potentielle Eignung dieser Pflanzenstoffe als Biomarker zur Authentizitätsprüfung ökologischer Produkte zu evaluieren. Dazu wurden Proben aus ökologischem und konventionellem Anbau (Paarvergleich) untersucht. Diese stammten aus Langzeit-Feldversuchen (Weizen aus dem DOK- und dem MASCOT-Versuch), Feldversuchen und von Betriebspaaren untersucht. Ein generell höheres Niveau sekundärer Pflanzenstoffe in Möhren bzw. Weizen aus ökologischem Anbau gegenüber Proben aus konventionellem Anbau wurde nicht gefunden. Die Carotinoide waren weder bei der Möhre noch beim Weizen zur Authentizitätsprüfung geeignet. Die Konzentration der Carotinoide wurde stark durch die nicht dem Anbau¬verfahren zuzuordnenden Faktoren Klima, Sorte und Standort beeinflusst. Die Luteinkonzentration war das einzige durch das Anbauverfahren systematisch beeinflusste Carotenoid bei Weizen und Möhre. Die Unterschiede der Luteinkonzentration waren aber im Paarvergleich von Proben (ökologischer versus konventioneller Anbau) nicht durchgängig signifikant. Die Eignung von Polyphenolen als potentielles Authentizitätskriterium wurde nur an Möhren geprüft. Im Paarvergleich unterschieden sich die Konzentrationen einzelner Polyphenole signifikant und konsistent über Probenjahre und Standorte, nicht jedoch über Sorten hinweg. Wie bei den Carotinoiden konnte auch hier ein starker Einfluss von Probenjahr, Standort und Sorte gezeigt werden. Trotz der Variation durch diese nicht dem Anbau zuzuordnenden Faktoren war eine korrekte Klassifizierung der Proben nach Anbauverfahren möglich. Dies wurde mittels Diskriminanzanalyse getestet. Die Polyphenole sind daher potentiell als Authentizitätskriterium geeignet.

Verbal proficiency as fitness indicator: Experimental and comparative research on the evolutionary psychology of language and verbal displays

Summary: Recent research on the evolution of language and verbal displays (e.g., Miller, 1999, 2000a, 2000b, 2002) indicated that language is not only the result of natural selection but serves as a sexually-selected fitness indicator that is an adaptation showing an individual’s suitability as a reproductive mate. Thus, language could be placed within the framework of concepts such as the handicap principle (Zahavi, 1975). There are several reasons for this position: Many linguistic traits are highly heritable (Stromswold, 2001, 2005), while naturally-selected traits are only marginally heritable (Miller, 2000a); men are more prone to verbal displays than women, who in turn judge the displays (Dunbar, 1996; Locke & Bogin, 2006; Lange, in press; Miller, 2000a; Rosenberg & Tunney, 2008); verbal proficiency universally raises especially male status (Brown, 1991); many linguistic features are handicaps (Miller, 2000a) in the Zahavian sense; most literature is produced by men at reproduction-relevant age (Miller, 1999). However, neither an experimental study investigating the causal relation between verbal proficiency and attractiveness, nor a study showing a correlation between markers of literary and mating success existed. In the current studies, it was aimed to fill these gaps. In the first one, I conducted a laboratory experiment. Videos in which an actor and an actress performed verbal self-presentations were the stimuli for counter-sex participants. Content was always alike, but the videos differed on three levels of verbal proficiency. Predictions were, among others, that (1) verbal proficiency increases mate value, but that (2) this applies more to male than to female mate value due to assumed past sex-different selection pressures causing women to be very demanding in mate choice (Trivers, 1972). After running a two-factorial analysis of variance with the variables sex and verbal proficiency as factors, the first hypothesis was supported with high effect size. For the second hypothesis, there was only a trend going in the predicted direction. Furthermore, it became evident that verbal proficiency affects long-term more than short-term mate value. In the second study, verbal proficiency as a menstrual cycle-dependent mate choice criterion was investigated. Basically the same materials as in the former study were used with only marginal changes in the used questionnaire. The hypothesis was that fertile women rate high verbal proficiency in men higher than non-fertile women because of verbal proficiency being a potential indicator of “good genes”. However, no significant result could be obtained in support of the hypothesis in the current study. In the third study, the hypotheses were: (1) most literature is produced by men at reproduction-relevant age. (2) The more works of high literary quality a male writer produces, the more mates and children he has. (3) Lyricists have higher mating success than non-lyric writers because of poetic language being a larger handicap than other forms of language. (4) Writing literature increases a man’s status insofar that his offspring shows a significantly higher male-to-female sex ratio than in the general population, as the Trivers-Willard hypothesis (Trivers & Willard, 1973) applied to literature predicts. In order to test these hypotheses, two famous literary canons were chosen. Extensive biographical research was conducted on the writers’ mating successes. The first hypothesis was confirmed; the second one, controlling for life age, only for number of mates but not entirely regarding number of children. The latter finding was discussed with respect to, among others, the availability of effective contraception especially in the 20th century. The third hypothesis was not satisfactorily supported. The fourth hypothesis was partially supported. For the 20th century part of the German list, the secondary sex ratio differed with high statistical significance from the ratio assumed to be valid for a general population.

The Effect of Climate Variability on Main Components of Cow Milk in Iran

The main purpose of this study is to assess the relationship between six bioclimatic indices for cattle (temperature humidity (THI), environmental stress (ESI), equivalent temperature (ESI), heat load (HLI), modified heat load (HLInew) and respiratory rate predictor(RRP)) and fundamental milk components (fat, protein, and milk yield) considering uncertainty. The climate parameters used to calculate the climate indices were taken from the NASA-Modern Era Retrospective-Analysis for Research and Applications (NASA-MERRA) reanalysis from 2002 to 2010. Cow milk data were considered for the same period from April to September when cows use natural pasture, with possibility for cows to choose to stay in the barn or to graze on the pasture in the pasturing system. The study is based on a linear regression analysis using correlations as a summarizing diagnostic. Bootstrapping is used to represent uncertainty estimation through resampling in the confidence intervals. To find the relationships between climate indices (THI, ETI, HLI, HLInew, ESI and RRP) and main components of cow milk (fat, protein and yield), multiple liner regression is applied. The least absolute shrinkage selection operator (LASSO) and the Akaike information criterion (AIC) techniques are applied to select the best model for milk predictands with the smallest number of climate predictors. Cross validation is used to avoid over-fitting. Based on results of investigation the effect of heat stress indices on milk compounds separately, we suggest the use of ESI and RRP in the summer and ESI in the spring. THI and HLInew are suggested for fat content and HLInew also is suggested for protein content in the spring season. The best linear models are found in spring between milk yield as predictands and THI, ESI,HLI, ETI and RRP as predictors with p-value < 0.001 and R2 0.50, 0.49. In summer, milk yield with independent variables of THI, ETI and ESI show the highest relation (p-value < 0.001) with R2 (0.69). For fat and protein the results are only marginal. It is strongly suggested that new and significant indices are needed to control critical heat stress conditions that consider more predictors of the effect of climate variability on animal products, such as sunshine duration, quality of pasture, the number of days of stress (NDS), the color of skin with attention to large black spots, and categorical predictors such as breed, welfare facility, and management system. This methodology is suggested for studies investigating the impacts of climate variability/change on food quality/security, animal science and agriculture using short term data considering uncertainty or data collection is expensive, difficult, or data with gaps.