Ein computergestütztes Kurskonzept für den Stochastik-Leistungskurs mit kontinuierlicher Verwendung der Software Fathom - Didaktisch kommentierte Unterrichtsmaterialien

Die Unterrichtsmaterialien beschreiben einen Unterrichtsvorschlag für einen kontinuierlich computergestützten Stochastikunterricht in der gymnasialen Oberstufe. Verwendet wird die Software Fathom. Die Unterrichtsmaterialien wurden bislang in fünf verschiedenen Kasseler Oberstufenkursen (Jahrgangsstufe 12 bzw. 13) erprobt und dabei jeweils weiter entwickelt. Ausgearbeitet sind drei Unterrichtseinheiten: 1. „Einstieg in die Stochastik mit Simulationen“ 2. Unterrichtseinheit „Binomialverteilung“ 3. Unterrichtseinheit „Testen von Hypothesen“ Zu jeder der drei Unterrichtseinheiten existieren eine didaktische Beschreibung, die Arbeitsmaterialien (Arbeitsblätter, Merkblätter zur Ergebnissicherung, dynamische Lernumgebungen) sowie Musterlösungen zu den Aufgaben. Für alle Aufgaben mit Verwendung der Software Fathom stehen die zugehörigen Fathom-Dateien zur Verfügung. Alle Fathom-Dateien (Lernumgebungen und Musterlösungen der Aufgaben) erhalten Sie als *.zip-Datei zum Download.

The DIADEM Software Development Methodology extended to Multimedia Interfaces

DIADEM, created by THOMSON-CSF, is a methodology for specifying and developing user interfaces. It improves productivity of the interface development process as well as quality of the interface. The method provides support to user interface development in three aspects. (1) DIADEM defines roles of people involved and their tasks and organises the sequence of activities. (2) It provides graphical formalisms supporting information exchange between people. (3) It offers a basic set of rules for optimum human-machine interfaces. The use of DIADEM in three areas (process control, sales support, and multimedia presentation) was observed and evaluated by our laboratory in the European project DIAMANTA (ESPRIT P20507). The method provides an open procedure that leaves room for adaptation to a specific application and environment. This paper gives an overview of DIADEM and shows how to extend formalisms for developing multimedia interfaces.

Das Einzugsgebiet der Fulda - Untersuchung der Methoden der Hochwasserstatistik im Zeichen des Klimawandels

Numerous studies have proven an effect of a probable climate change on the hydrosphere’s different subsystems. In the 21st century global and regional redistribution of water has to be expected and it is very likely that extreme weather phenomenon will occur more frequently. From a global view the flood situation will exacerbate. In contrast to these discoveries the classical approach of flood frequency analysis provides terms like “mean flood recurrence interval”. But for this analysis to be valid there is a need for the precondition of stationary distribution parameters which implies that the flood frequencies are constant in time. Newer approaches take into account extreme value distributions with time-dependent parameters. But the latter implies a discard of the mentioned old terminology that has been used up-to-date in engineering hydrology. On the regional scale climate change affects the hydrosphere in various ways. So, the question appears to be whether in central Europe the classical approach of flood frequency analysis is not usable anymore and whether the traditional terminology should be renewed. In the present case study hydro-meteorological time series of the Fulda catchment area (6930 km²), upstream of the gauging station Bonaforth, are analyzed for the time period 1960 to 2100. At first a distributed catchment area model (SWAT2005) is build up, calibrated and finally validated. The Edertal reservoir is regulated as well by a feedback control of the catchments output in case of low water. Due to this intricacy a special modeling strategy has been necessary: The study area is divided into three SWAT basin models and an additional physically-based reservoir model is developed. To further improve the streamflow predictions of the SWAT model, a correction by an artificial neural network (ANN) has been tested successfully which opens a new way to improve hydrological models. With this extension the calibration and validation of the SWAT model for the Fulda catchment area is improved significantly. After calibration of the model for the past 20th century observed streamflow, the SWAT model is driven by high resolution climate data of the regional model REMO using the IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, to generate future runoff time series for the 21th century for the various sub-basins in the study area. In a second step flood time series HQ(a) are derived from the 21st century runoff time series (scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Then these flood projections are extensively tested with regard to stationarity, homogeneity and statistical independence. All these tests indicate that the SWAT-predicted 21st-century trends in the flood regime are not significant. Within the projected time the members of the flood time series are proven to be stationary and independent events. Hence, the classical stationary approach of flood frequency analysis can still be used within the Fulda catchment area, notwithstanding the fact that some regional climate change has been predicted using the IPCC scenarios. It should be noted, however, that the present results are not transferable to other catchment areas. Finally a new method is presented that enables the calculation of extreme flood statistics, even if the flood time series is non-stationary and also if the latter exhibits short- and longterm persistence. This method, which is called Flood Series Maximum Analysis here, enables the calculation of maximum design floods for a given risk- or safety level and time period.

The Human in the Loop: User Participation in Self-Adaptive Software

Self-adaptive software provides a profound solution for adapting applications to changing contexts in dynamic and heterogeneous environments. Having emerged from Autonomic Computing, it incorporates fully autonomous decision making based on predefined structural and behavioural models. The most common approach for architectural runtime adaptation is the MAPE-K adaptation loop implementing an external adaptation manager without manual user control. However, it has turned out that adaptation behaviour lacks acceptance if it does not correspond to a user’s expectations – particularly for Ubiquitous Computing scenarios with user interaction. Adaptations can be irritating and distracting if they are not appropriate for a certain situation. In general, uncertainty during development and at run-time causes problems with users being outside the adaptation loop. In a literature study, we analyse publications about self-adaptive software research. The results show a discrepancy between the motivated application domains, the maturity of examples, and the quality of evaluations on the one hand and the provided solutions on the other hand. Only few publications analysed the impact of their work on the user, but many employ user-oriented examples for motivation and demonstration. To incorporate the user within the adaptation loop and to deal with uncertainty, our proposed solutions enable user participation for interactive selfadaptive software while at the same time maintaining the benefits of intelligent autonomous behaviour. We define three dimensions of user participation, namely temporal, behavioural, and structural user participation. This dissertation contributes solutions for user participation in the temporal and behavioural dimension. The temporal dimension addresses the moment of adaptation which is classically determined by the self-adaptive system. We provide mechanisms allowing users to influence or to define the moment of adaptation. With our solution, users can have full control over the moment of adaptation or the self-adaptive software considers the user’s situation more appropriately. The behavioural dimension addresses the actual adaptation logic and the resulting run-time behaviour. Application behaviour is established during development and does not necessarily match the run-time expectations. Our contributions are three distinct solutions which allow users to make changes to the application’s runtime behaviour: dynamic utility functions, fuzzy-based reasoning, and learning-based reasoning. The foundation of our work is a notification and feedback solution that improves intelligibility and controllability of self-adaptive applications by implementing a bi-directional communication between self-adaptive software and the user. The different mechanisms from the temporal and behavioural participation dimension require the notification and feedback solution to inform users on adaptation actions and to provide a mechanism to influence adaptations. Case studies show the feasibility of the developed solutions. Moreover, an extensive user study with 62 participants was conducted to evaluate the impact of notifications before and after adaptations. Although the study revealed that there is no preference for a particular notification design, participants clearly appreciated intelligibility and controllability over autonomous adaptations.