Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Evaluating partial root-zone irrigation and mulching in okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L.) under a sub-humid tropical climate

The field experiments were conducted to compare the alternate partial root-zone irrigation (APRI) with and without black plastic mulch (BPM) with full root-zone irrigation (FRI) in furrow-irrigated okra (Abelmoschus esculentus L. Moench) at Bhubaneswar, India. APRI means that one of the two neighbouring furrows was alternately irrigated during consecutive watering. FRI was the conventional method where every furrow was irrigated during each watering. The used irrigation levels were 25% available soil moisture depletion (ASMD), 50% ASMD, and 75% ASMD. The plant growth and yield parameters were observed to be significantly (p < 0.05) higher with frequent irrigation (at 25% ASMD) under all irrigation strategies. However, APRI + BPM produced the maximum plant growth and yield using 22% and 56% less water over APRI without BPM and FRI, respectively. The highest pod yield (10025 kg ha^-1) was produced under APRI at 25% ASMD + BPM, which was statistically at par with the pod yield under APRI at 50% ASMD + BPM. Irrigation water use efficiency (IWUE), which indicates the pod yield per unit quantity of irrigation water, was estimated to be highest (12.3 kg m^-3) under APRI at 50% ASMD + BPM, followed by APRI at 25% ASMD + BPM. Moreover, the treatment APRI at 50% ASMD + BPM was found economically superior to other treatments, generating more net return (US $ 952 ha^-1) with higher benefit–cost ratio (1.70).

Effects of row spacing on productivity and nodulation of two soybean varieties under hot sub-moist tropical conditions in south-western Ethiopia

The objective of this study was to determine the optimum row spacing to improve the productivity of two soybean (Glycine max L.) varieties under the tropical hot sub-moist agroecological conditions of Ethiopia. A two-year split-plot design experiment was conducted to determine the effect of variety (Awasa-95 [early-maturing], Afgat [medium-maturing]) and row spacing (RS: 20, 25, 30, 35, 40, 45, 50, 55, 60 cm) on the productivity, nodulation and weed infestation of soybean. Seed and total dry matter (TDM) yield per ha and per plant, and weed dry biomass per m^2 were significantly affected by RS. Soybean variety had a significant effect on plant density at harvest and some yield components (plant height, number of seeds/pod, and 1000 seed weight). Generally, seed and TDM yield per ha and per plant were high at 40 cm RS, and weed dry biomass per m^2 was higher for RS >= 40 cm than for narrower RS. However, the results did not demonstrate a consistent pattern along the RS gradient. The medium-maturing variety Afgat experienced higher mortality and ended up with lower final plant density at harvest, but higher plant height, number of seeds per pod and 1000 seed weight than the early-maturing variety Awasa-95. The results indicate that 40 cm RS with 5 cm plant spacing within a row can be used for high productivity and low weed infestation of both soybean varieties in the hot sub-moist tropical environment of south-western Ethiopia.

Effects of shoot pruning and inflorescence thinning on plant growth, yield and fruit quality of greenhouse tomatoes in a tropical climate

The combined effects of shoot pruning (one or two stems) and inflorescence thinning (five or ten flowers per inflorescence) on greenhouse tomato yield and fruit quality were studied during the dry season (DS) and rainy season (RS) in Central Thailand. Poor fruit set, development of undersized (mostly parthenocarpic) fruits, as well as the physiological disorders blossom-end rot (BER) and fruit cracking (FC) turned out to be the prevailing causes deteriorating fruit yield and quality. The proportion of marketable fruits was less than 10% in the RS and around 65% in the DS. In both seasons, total yield was significantly increased when plants were cultivated with two stems, resulting in higher marketable yields only in the DS. While the fraction of undersized fruits was increased in both seasons when plants were grown with a secondary stem, the proportions of BER and FC were significantly reduced. Restricting the number of flowers per inflorescence invariably resulted in reduced total yield. However, in neither season did fruit load considerably affect quantity or proportion of the marketable yield fraction. Inflorescence thinning tended to promote BER and FC, an effect which was only significant for BER in the RS. In conclusion, for greenhouse tomato production under climate conditions as they are prevalent in Central Thailand, the cultivation with two stems appears to be highly recommendable whereas the measures to control fruit load tested in this study did not proof to be advisable.