Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Semi-algebraic methods for symbolic analysis of complex reaction networks

The identification of chemical mechanism that can exhibit oscillatory phenomena in reaction networks are currently of intense interest. In particular, the parametric question of the existence of Hopf bifurcations has gained increasing popularity due to its relation to the oscillatory behavior around the fixed points. However, the detection of oscillations in high-dimensional systems and systems with constraints by the available symbolic methods has proven to be difficult. The development of new efficient methods are therefore required to tackle the complexity caused by the high-dimensionality and non-linearity of these systems. In this thesis, we mainly present efficient algorithmic methods to detect Hopf bifurcation fixed points in (bio)-chemical reaction networks with symbolic rate constants, thereby yielding information about their oscillatory behavior of the networks. The methods use the representations of the systems on convex coordinates that arise from stoichiometric network analysis. One of the methods called HoCoQ reduces the problem of determining the existence of Hopf bifurcation fixed points to a first-order formula over the ordered field of the reals that can then be solved using computational-logic packages. The second method called HoCaT uses ideas from tropical geometry to formulate a more efficient method that is incomplete in theory but worked very well for the attempted high-dimensional models involving more than 20 chemical species. The instability of reaction networks may lead to the oscillatory behaviour. Therefore, we investigate some criterions for their stability using convex coordinates and quantifier elimination techniques. We also study Muldowney's extension of the classical Bendixson-Dulac criterion for excluding periodic orbits to higher dimensions for polynomial vector fields and we discuss the use of simple conservation constraints and the use of parametric constraints for describing simple convex polytopes on which periodic orbits can be excluded by Muldowney's criteria. All developed algorithms have been integrated into a common software framework called PoCaB (platform to explore bio- chemical reaction networks by algebraic methods) allowing for automated computation workflows from the problem descriptions. PoCaB also contains a database for the algebraic entities computed from the models of chemical reaction networks.

An integrated assessment of resource use strategies in the Borana pastoral system of southern Ethiopia

In the pastoral production systems, mobility remains the main technique used to meet livestock’s fodder requirements. Currently, with growing challenges on the pastoral production systems, there is urgent need for an in-depth understanding of how pastoralists continue to manage their grazing resources and how they determine their mobility strategies. This study examined the Borana pastoralists’ regulation of access to grazing resources, mobility practices and cattle reproductive performances in three pastoral zones of Borana region of southern Ethiopia. The central objective of the study was to contribute to the understanding of pastoral land use strategies at a scale relevant to their management. The study applied a multi-scalar methodological approach that allowed zooming in from communal to individual herd level. Through participatory mapping that applied Google Earth image print out as visual aid, the study revealed that the Borana pastoralists conceptualized their grazing areas as distinctive grazing units with names, borders, and specific characteristics. This knowledge enables the herders to communicate the condition of grazing resources among themselves in a precise way which is important in management of livestock mobility. Analysis of grazing area use from the participatory maps showed that the Borana pastoralists apportion their grazing areas into categories that are accessed at different times of the year (temporal use areas). This re-organization is an attempt by the community to cope with the prevailing constraints which results in fodder shortages especially during the dry periods. The re-organization represents a shift in resource use system, as the previous mobility practice across the ecologically varied zones of the rangelands became severely restricted. Grazing itineraries of 91 cattle herds for over 16 months obtained using the seasonal calendar interviews indicated that in the areas with the severest mobility constraints, the herders spent most of their time in the year round use areas that are within close proximity to the settlements. A significant change in mobility strategy was the disallowing of foora practice by the communities in Dirre and Malbe zones in order to reduce competition. With the reduction in mobility practices, there is a general decline in cattle reproductive parameters with the areas experiencing the severest constraints showing the least favourable reproductive performances. The study concludes that the multi-scalar methodology was well suited to zoom into pastoral grazing management practices from communal to individual herd levels. Also the loss of mobility in the Borana pastoral system affects fulfilment of livestock feed requirements thus resulting in reduced reproductive performances and herd growth potentials. While reversal of the conditions of the situations in the Borana rangelands is practically unfeasible, the findings from this research underscore the need to protect the remaining pastoral lands since the pastoral production system remains the most important livelihood option for the majority of the Borana people. In this regards the study emphasises the need to adopt and domesticate regional and international policy frameworks such as that proposed by the African Union in 2010.

Physiological analysis of central and peripheral insect circadian pacemaker neurons

Alle bisher untersuchten Lebewesen besitzen (circadiane) innere Uhren, die eine endogene Perioden-länge von ungefähr 24 Stunden generieren. Eine innere Uhr kann über Zeitgeber mit der Umwelt synchronisiert werden und ermöglicht dem Organismus, rhythmische Umweltveränderungen vorweg zu nehmen. Neben einem zentralen Schrittmacher, der Physiologie und Verhalten des Organismus steuert, gibt es in unterschiedlichen Organen auch periphere Uhren, die die zeitlichen Abläufe in der spezifischen Funktion dieser Organe steuern. In dieser Arbeit sollten zentrale und periphere Schrittmacherneurone von Insekten physiologisch untersucht und verglichen werden. Die Neurone der akzessorischen Medulla (AME) von Rhyparobia maderae dienten als Modellsystem für zentrale Schrittmacher, während olfaktorische Rezeptorneurone (ORNs) von Manduca sexta als Modellsystem für periphere Schrittmacher dienten. Die zentralen Schrittmacherneurone wurden in extrazellulären Ableitungen an der isolierten AME (Netzwerkebene) und in Patch-Clamp Experimenten an primären AME Zellkulturen (Einzelzellebene) untersucht. Auf Netzwerkebene zeigten sich zwei charakteristische Aktivitätsmuster: regelmäßige Aktivität und Wechsel zwischen hoher und niedriger Aktivität (Oszillationen). Es wurde gezeigt, dass Glutamat ein Neurotransmitter der weitverbreiteten inhibitorischen Synapsen der AME ist, und dass in geringem Maße auch exzitatorische Synapsen vorkommen. Das Neuropeptid pigment-dispersing factor (PDF), das von nur wenigen AME Neuronen exprimiert wird und ein wichtiger Kopplungsfaktor im circadianen System ist, führte zu Hemmungen, Aktivierungen oder Oszillationen. Die Effekte waren transient oder langanhaltend und wurden wahrscheinlich durch den sekundären Botenstoff cAMP vermittelt. Ein Zielmolekül von cAMP war vermutlich exchange protein directly activated by cAMP (EPAC). Auf Einzelzellebene wurde gezeigt, dass die meisten AME Neurone depolarisiert waren und deshalb nicht feuerten. Die Analyse von Strom-Spannungs-Kennlinien und pharmakologische Experimente ergaben, dass unterschiedliche Ionenkanäle vorhanden waren (Ca2+, Cl-, K+, Na+ Kanäle sowie nicht-spezifische Kationenkanäle). Starke, bei hohen Spannungen aktivierende Ca2+ Ströme (ICa) könnten eine wichtige Rolle bei Ca2+-abhängiger Neurotransmitter-Ausschüttung, Oszillationen, und Aktionspotentialen spielen. PDF hemmte unterschiedliche Ströme (ICa, IK und INa) und aktivierte nicht-spezifische Kationenströme (Ih). Es wurde angenommen, dass simultane PDF-abhängige Hyper- und Depolarisationen rhythmische Membranpotential-Oszillationen verursachen. Dieser Mechanismus könnte eine Rolle bei PDF-abhängigen Synchronisationen spielen. Die Analyse peripherer Schrittmacherneurone konzentrierte sich auf die Charakterisierung des olfaktorischen Corezeptors von M. sexta (MsexORCO). In anderen Insekten ist ORCO für die Membran-Insertion von olfaktorischen Rezeptoren (ORs) erforderlich. ORCO bildet Komplexe mit den ORs, die in heterologen Expressionssystemen als Ionenkanäle fungieren und Duft-Antworten vermitteln. Es wurde die Hypothese aufgestellt, dass MsexORCO in pheromonsensitiven ORNs in vivo nicht als Teil eines ionotropen Rezeptors sondern als Schrittmacherkanal fungiert, der unterschwellige Membranpotential-Oszillationen generiert. MsexORCO wurde mit vermeintlichen Pheromonrezeptoren in human embryonic kidney (HEK 293) Zellen coexprimiert. Immuncytochemie und Ca2+ Imaging Experimente zeigten sehr schwache Expressionsraten. Trotzdem war es möglich zu zeigen, dass MsexORCO wahrscheinlich ein spontan-aktiver, Ca2+-permeabler Ionenkanal ist, der durch den ORCO-Agonisten VUAA1 und cyclische Nucleotide aktiviert wird. Außerdem wiesen die Experimente darauf hin, dass MsexOR-1 offensichtlich der Bombykal-Rezeptor ist. Eine weitere Charakterisierung von MsexORCO in primären M. sexta ORN Zellkulturen konnte nicht vollendet werden, weil die ORNs nicht signifikant auf ORCO-Agonisten oder -Antagonisten reagierten.

Integrated bioenergy and food production

Rising global energy needs and limited fossil fuel reserves have led to increased use of renewable energies. In Germany, this has entailed massive exploitation of agricultural biomass for biogas generation, associated with unsustainable farming practices. Organic agriculture not only reduces negative environmental impacts, organic farmers were also prime movers in anaerobic digestion (AD) in Germany. This study’s aim was to identify the structure, development, and characteristics of biogas production associated with organic farming systems in order to estimate further development, as well as energetic and associated agronomic potentials. Surveys were conducted among organic farms with AD technology. 144 biogas plants could be included in the analysis. Total installed electrical capacity was 30.8 MWel, accounting for only 0.8% of the total installed electrical capacity in the German biogas sector. Recently, larger plant types (>250 kWel) with increased use of (also purchased) energy crops have emerged. Farmers noticed increases in yields (22% on average) and quality of cash crops in arable farming through integrated biogas production. In conclusion, although the share of AD in organic farming is relatively small it can provide various complementary socio-ecological benefits such as the enhancement of food output through digestate fertilization without additional need for land, while simultaneously reducing greenhouse gas emissions from livestock manures and soils. However, to achieve this eco-functional intensification, AD systems and their management have to be well adapted to farm size and production focus and based primarily on residue biomass.

Investigation of Multiphase Power Converter using Integrated Coupled Inductor Regarding Electric Vehicle Application

The challenge of reducing carbon emission and achieving emission target until 2050, has become a key development strategy of energy distribution for each country. The automotive industries, as the important portion of implementing energy requirements, are making some related researches to meet energy requirements and customer requirements. For modern energy requirements, it should be clean, green and renewable. For customer requirements, it should be economic, reliable and long life time. Regarding increasing requirements on the market and enlarged customer quantity, EVs and PHEV are more and more important for automotive manufactures. Normally for EVs and PHEV there are two important key parts, which are battery package and power electronics composing of critical components. A rechargeable battery is a quite important element for achieving cost competitiveness, which is mainly used to story energy and provide continue energy to drive an electric motor. In order to recharge battery and drive the electric motor, power electronics group is an essential bridge to convert different energy types for both of them. In modern power electronics there are many different topologies such as non-isolated and isolated power converters which can be used to implement for charging battery. One of most used converter topology is multiphase interleaved power converter, pri- marily due to its prominent advantages, which is frequently employed to obtain optimal dynamic response, high effciency and compact converter size. Concerning its usage, many detailed investigations regarding topology, control strategy and devices have been done. In this thesis, the core research is to investigate some branched contents in term of issues analysis and optimization approaches of building magnetic component. This work starts with an introduction of reasons of developing EVs and PEHV and an overview of different possible topologies regarding specific application requirements. Because of less components, high reliability, high effciency and also no special safety requirement, non-isolated multiphase interleaved converter is selected as the basic research topology of founded W-charge project for investigating its advantages and potential branches on using optimized magnetic components. Following, all those proposed aspects and approaches are investigated and analyzed in details in order to verify constrains and advantages through using integrated coupled inductors. Furthermore, digital controller concept and a novel tapped-inductor topology is proposed for multiphase power converter and electric vehicle application.