5 resultados para Seasonal cycle

em Universitätsbibliothek Kassel, Universität Kassel, Germany


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For millennia oasis agriculture has been the backbone of rural livelihood in the desertic Sultanate of Oman. However, little is known about the functioning of these oasis systems, in particular with respect to the C turnover. The objective was to determine the effects of crop, i.e. alfalfa, wheat and bare fallow on the CO2 evolution rate during an irrigation cycle in relation to changes in soil water content and soil temperature. The gravimetric soil water content decreased from initially 24% to approximately 16% within 7 days after irrigation. The mean CO2 evolution rates increased significantly in the order fallow (27.4 mg C m^−2 h^−1) < wheat (45.5 mg C m^−2 h^−1) < alfalfa (97.5 mg C m^−2 h^−1). It can be calculated from these data that the CO2 evolution rate of the alfalfa root system was nearly four times higher than the corresponding rate in the wheat root system. The decline in CO2 evolution rate, especially during the first 4 days after irrigation, was significantly related to the decline in the gravimetric water content, with r = 0.70. CO2 evolution rate and soil temperature at 5 cm depth were negatively correlated (r = -0.56,n = 261) due to increasing soil temperature with decreasing gravimetric water content.

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This study evaluates the effects of environmental variables on traditional and alternative agroecosystems in three Ejidos (communal lands) in the Chiapas rainforest in Mexico. The tests occurred within two seasonal agricultural cycles. In spring-summer, experiments were performed with the traditional slash, fell and burn (S-F-B) system, no-burn systems and rotating systems with Mucuna deeringiana Bort., and in the autumn-winter agricultural cycle, three no-burn systems were compared to evaluate the effect of alternative sowing with corn (no-burn and topological modification of sowing). The results show a high floristic diversity in the study area (S_S = 4 - 23%), with no significant differences among the systems evaluated. In the first cycle, the analysis of the agronomical variables of the corn indicated better properties in the fallowing systems, with an average yield of 1950 kg ha^‑1, but there was variation related to the number of years left fallow. In the second cycle, the yields were positive for the alternative technology (average yield 3100 kg ha^‑1). The traditional S-F-B systems had reduced pests and increased organic matter and soil phosphorous content. These results are the consequence of fallow periods and adaptation to the environment; thus, this practice in the Chiapas rainforest constitutes an ethnocultural reality, which is unlikely to change in the near future if the agrosystems are managed based on historical principles.

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The global power supply stability is faced to several severe and fundamental threats, in particular steadily increasing power demand, diminishing and degrading fossil and nuclear energy resources, very harmful greenhouse gas emissions, significant energy injustice and a structurally misbalanced ecological footprint. Photovoltaic (PV) power systems are analysed in various aspects focusing on economic and technical considerations of supplemental and substitutional power supply to the constraint conventional power system. To infer the most relevant system approach for PV power plants several solar resources available for PV systems are compared. By combining the different solar resources and respective economics, two major PV systems are identified to be very competitive in almost all regions in the world. The experience curve concept is used as a key technique for the development of scenario assumptions on economic projections for the decade of the 2010s. Main drivers for cost reductions in PV systems are learning and production growth rate, thus several relevant aspects are discussed such as research and development investments, technical PV market potential, different PV technologies and the energetic sustainability of PV. Three major market segments for PV systems are identified: off-grid PV solutions, decentralised small scale on-grid PV systems (several kWp) and large scale PV power plants (tens of MWp). Mainly by application of ‘grid-parity’ and ‘fuel-parity’ concepts per country, local market and conventional power plant basis, the global economic market potential for all major PV system segments is derived. PV power plant hybridization potential of all relevant power technologies and the global power plant structure are analyzed regarding technical, economical and geographical feasibility. Key success criteria for hybrid PV power plants are discussed and comprehensively analysed for all adequate power plant technologies, i.e. oil, gas and coal fired power plants, wind power, solar thermal power (STEG) and hydro power plants. For the 2010s, detailed global demand curves are derived for hybrid PV-Fossil power plants on a per power plant, per country and per fuel type basis. The fundamental technical and economic potentials for hybrid PV-STEG, hybrid PV-Wind and hybrid PV-Hydro power plants are considered. The global resource availability for PV and wind power plants is excellent, thus knowing the competitive or complementary characteristic of hybrid PV-Wind power plants on a local basis is identified as being of utmost relevance. The complementarity of hybrid PV-Wind power plants is confirmed. As a result of that almost no reduction of the global economic PV market potential need to be expected and more complex power system designs on basis of hybrid PV-Wind power plants are feasible. The final target of implementing renewable power technologies into the global power system is a nearly 100% renewable power supply. Besides balancing facilities, storage options are needed, in particular for seasonal power storage. Renewable power methane (RPM) offers respective options. A comprehensive global and local analysis is performed for analysing a hybrid PV-Wind-RPM combined cycle gas turbine power system. Such a power system design might be competitive and could offer solutions for nearly all current energy system constraints including the heating and transportation sector and even the chemical industry. Summing up, hybrid PV power plants become very attractive and PV power systems will very likely evolve together with wind power to the major and final source of energy for mankind.

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Ultrafast laser pulses have become an integral part of the toolbox of countless laboratories doing physics, chemistry, and biological research. The work presented here is motivated by a section in the ever-growing, interdisciplinary research towards understanding the fundamental workings of light-matter interactions. Specifically, attosecond pulses can be useful tools to obtain the desired insight. However access to, and the utility of, such pulses is dependent on the generation of intense, few-cycle, carrier-envelope-phase stabilized laser pulses. The presented work can be thought of as a sort of roadmap towards the latter. From the oscillator which provides the broadband seed to amplification methods, the integral pieces necessary for the generation of attosecond pulses are discussed. A range of topics from the fundamentals to design challenges is presented, outfitting the way towards the practical implementation of an intense few-cycle carrier-envelope-phase stabilized laser source.

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The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.