Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Horizontal nutrient fluxes and production efficiencies in urban and peri-urban crop and livestock husbandry of Niamey, Niger

Urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA) increasingly supplies food and non-food values to the rapidly growing West African cities. However, little is known about the resource use efficiencies in West African small-scale UPA crop and livestock production systems, and about the benefits that urban producers and retailers obtain from the cultivation and sale of UPA products. To contribute to filling this gap of knowledge, the studies comprising this doctoral thesis determined nutrient use efficiencies in representative urban crop and livestock production system in Niamey, Niger, and investigated potential health risks for consumers. Also assessed was the economic efficiency of urban farming activities. The field study, which was conducted during November 2005 to January 2008, quantified management-related horizontal nutrient flows in 10 vegetable gardens, 9 millet fields and 13 cattle and small ruminant production units. These farms, selected on the basis of a preceding study, represented the diversity of UPA crop and livestock production systems in Niamey. Based on the management intensity, the market orientation and especially the nutrient input to individual gardens and fields, these were categorized as high or low input systems. In the livestock study, high and low input cattle and small ruminant units were differentiated based on the amounts of total feed dry matter offered daily to the animals at the homestead. Additionally, economic returns to gardeners and market retailers cultivating and selling amaranth, lettuce, cabbage and tomato - four highly appreciated vegetables in Niamey were determined during a 6-months survey in forty gardens and five markets. For vegetable gardens and millet fields, significant differences in partial horizontal nutrient balances were determined for both management intensities. Per hectare, average annual partial balances for carbon (C), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) amounted to 9936 kg C, 1133 kg N, 223 kg P and 312 kg K in high input vegetable gardens as opposed to 9580 kg C, 290 kg N, 125 kg P and 351 kg K in low input gardens. These surpluses were mainly explained by heavy use of mineral fertilizers and animal manure to which irrigation with nutrient rich wastewater added. In high input millet fields, annual surpluses of 259 kg C ha-1, 126 kg N ha-1, 20 kg P ha-1 and 0.4 kg K ha-1 were determined. Surpluses of 12 kg C ha-1, 17 kg N ha-1, and deficits of -3 kg P ha-1 and -3 kg K ha-1 were determined for low input millet fields. Here, carbon and nutrient inputs predominantly originated from livestock manure application through corralling of sheep, goats and cattle. In the livestock enterprises, N, P and K supplied by forages offered at the farm exceeded the animals’ requirements for maintenance and growth in high and low input sheep/goat as well as cattle units. The highest average growth rate determined in high input sheep/goat units was 104 g d-1 during the cool dry season, while a maximum average gain of 70 g d-1 was determined for low input sheep/goat units during the hot dry season. In low as well as in high input cattle units, animals lost weight during the hot dry season, and gained weight during the cool dry season. In all livestock units, conversion efficiencies for feeds offered at the homestead were rather poor, ranging from 13 to 42 kg dry matter (DM) per kg live weight gain (LWG) in cattle and from 16 to 43 kg DM kg-1 LWG in sheep/goats, pointing to a substantial waste of feeds and nutrients. The economic assessment of the production of four high value vegetables pointed to a low efficiency of N and P use in amaranth and lettuce production, causing low economic returns for these crops compared to tomato and cabbage to which inexpensive animal manure was applied. The net profit of market retailers depended on the type of vegetable marketed. In addition it depended on marketplace for amaranth and lettuce, and on season and marketplace for cabbage and tomato. Analysis of faecal pathogens in lettuce irrigated with river water and fertilized with animal manure indicated a substantial contamination by Salmonella spp. with 7.2 x 104 colony forming units (CFU) per 25 g of produce fresh matter, while counts of Escherichia coli averaged 3.9 x 104 CFU g-1. In lettuce irrigated with wastewater, Salmonella counts averaged 9.8 x 104 CFU 25 g-1 and E. coli counts were 0.6 x 104 CFU g-1; these values exceeded the tolerable contamination levels in vegetables of 10 CFU g-1 for E. coli and of 0 CFU 25 g-1 for Salmonella. Taken together, the results of this study indicate that Niamey’s UPA enterprises put environmental safety at risk since excess inputs of N, P and K to crop and livestock production units favour N volatilisation and groundwater pollution by nutrient leaching. However, more detailed studies are needed to corroborate these indications. Farmers’ revenues could be significantly increased if nutrient use efficiency in the different production (sub)systems was improved by better matching nutrient supply through fertilizers and feeds with the actual nutrient demands of plants and animals.

Dieselmotor-Kraft-Wärme-Kopplungsanlagen im Kontext der Integration Erneuerbarer Energien in die Energieversorgung

In dieser Arbeit werden die sich abzeichnenden zukünftigen Möglichkeiten, Stärken und Schwächen der Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung (KWK) untersucht. Dies geschieht vor dem Hintergrund des Klimawandels, der Integration steigender Anteile Erneuerbarer Energien in die Stromerzeugung und unter Berücksichtigung der sich damit ergebenden Herausforderungen, eine sichere und nachhaltige Stromversorgung zu gestalten. Der Fokus liegt auf der Dieselmotor-KWK und der Nutzung nachwachsender Kraftstoffe. Es wird davon ausgegangen, dass der Übergang zu einer reinen Stromerzeugung aus Erneuerbaren Energiequellen in Deutschland unter erheblicher Einbindung des hohen Potentials der kostengünstigen, umweltfreundlichen, aber in der Leistung extrem fluktuierenden Windenergie erfolgen wird. Als dezentrales Integrationswerkzeug wurde die Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung mit Dieselmotoren untersucht. Sie entspricht aufgrund ihrer großen Flexibilität und ihrer hohen Wirkungsgrade mit vergleichsweise kleinen Leistungen sehr gut den Anforderungen der gleichzeitigen dezentralen Wärmenutzung. In der Dissertation werden die Randbedingungen der Dieselmotor-KWK untersucht und beschrieben. Darauf aufbauend werden unterschiedliche Modelle der Windintegration durch KWK erarbeitet und in diversen Variationen wird der Ausgleich der Stromerzeugung aus Windenergie durch KWK simuliert. Darüber hinaus werden dezentrale KWK-Anlagen hinsichtlich eines koordinierten gemeinsamen Betriebs und hinsichtlich der optimalen Auslegung für den Windenergieausgleich betrachtet. Es wird für den beschriebenen Kontext der Erneuerbaren Energien und der Kraft-Wärme-Kopplung das Thema „Umweltwirkungen“ diskutiert. Es wird dargelegt, dass die heute verwendeten Ansätze zur Bewertung der KWK zu einer Verzerrung der Ergebnisse führen. Demgegenüber wurde mit der so genannten Outputmethode eine Methode der Ökobilanzierung vorgestellt, die, im Gegensatz zu den anderen Methoden, keine verzerrenden Annahmen in die Wirkungsabschätzung aufnimmt und somit eine eindeutige und rein wissenschaftliche Auswertung bleibt. Hiermit ist die Grundlage für die Bewertung der unterschiedlichen Technologien und Szenarien sowie für die Einordnung der KWK in den Kontext der Energieerzeugung gegeben. Mit der Outputmethode wird u.a. rechnerisch bewiesen, dass die gekoppelte Strom- und Wärmeerzeugung in KWK-Anlagen tatsächlich die optimale Nutzung der regenerativen Kraftstoffe „Biogas“ und „Pflanzenöl“ im Hinblick auf Ressourceneinsatz, Treibhausgaseinsparung und Exergieerzeugung ist. Es wurde darüber hinaus die Frage untersucht woher die für die Stromerzeugung durch Dieselmotor-KWK-Anlagen notwendige Bioenergie genommen werden kann. Es ist erwiesen, dass die in Deutschland nutzbare landwirtschaftliche Fläche nur zur Deckung eines Teils der Stromerzeugung ausreichen würde. Einheimisches Biogas und nachhaltiges importiertes Pflanzenöl, das in hohem Maße auf degradierten Böden angebaut werden sollte, können die notwendige Brennstoffenergie liefern. Um im Ausland ausreichend Pflanzenöl herstellen zu können, wird eine landwirtschaftliche Fläche von 6 bis 12 Mio. ha benötigt. Das Ergebnis ist, dass ein voller Ausgleich von Windenergie-Restlast durch KWK mit Erneuerbaren Energieträgern sinnvoll und machbar ist! Dieses Wind-KWK-DSM-System sollte durch ein Stromnetz ergänzt sein, das Wasserkraftstrom für den Großteil der Regelenergieaufgaben nutzt, und das den großräumigen Ausgleich Erneuerbarer Energien in Europa und den Nachbarregionen ermöglicht.

Factors influencing a conversion to organic farming in Nepalese tea farms

Organic agriculture in developing countries has increased in past decades especially due to the high demand of organic products in developed countries. The rate of conversion to organic production in Nepal, however, is observed much slower than expected. This study investigates factors that determine the conversion to organic production using Nepalese tea producers as a case study. A survey of 181 farmers was conducted in the Ilam and Panchthar district of Nepal, among which 86 were organic farmers and 95 were conventional farmers. A discriminant analysis was used to identify socio-economic characteristics that distinguish conventional and organic farmers. Results from the estimated discriminant function suggest that farmers located in a distance from regional markets, older in age, better trained, affiliated with institutions and having larger farms are more likely to adopt organic production. Similarly, a factor analysis shows that environmental awareness, bright market prospects, observable economic benefit and health consciousness are the major factors influencing farmers’ decisions on the conversion to organic production. While planning programs for the development of the organic tea sector in Nepal, policy makers should consider the support of farmers’ institutions, provision of training to farmers and raise farmers’ awareness about the environmental, economic and health benefits of organic farming.

Effects of grassland conversion and tillage intensities on soil microbial biomass, residues and community structure

Agricultural intensification has a strong impact on level of soil organic matter (SOM), microbial biomass stocks and microbial community structure in agro-ecosystems. The size of the microbial necromass C pool could be about 40 times that of the living microbial biomass C pool in soils. Due to the specificity, amino sugar analysis gives more important information on the relative contribution of fungal and bacterial residues to C sequestration potential of soils. Meanwhile, the relationship between microbial biomass and microbial necromass in soil and its ecological significance on SOM are not fully understood and likely to be very complex in grassland soils. This thesis focuses on the effects of tillage, grassland conversion intensities and fertilisation on microbial biomass, residues and community structure. The combined analyses of microbial biomass and residue formation of both fungi and bacteria provided a unique opportunity to study the effect of tillage, grassland conversion and fertilisation on soil microbial dynamics. In top soil at 0-30 cm layer, a reduction in tillage intensity by the GRT and NT treatments increased the accumulation of saprotrophic fungi in comparison with the MBT treatment. In contrast, the GRT and NT treatments promoted AMF at the expense of saprotrophic fungi in the bottom soil layer at 30-40 cm depth. The negative relationship between the ergosterol to microbial biomass C ratio and the fungal C to bacterial C ratio points to the importance of the relationship between saprotrophic fungi and biotrophic AMF for tillage-induced changes in microbial turnover of SOC. One-season cultivation of winter wheat with two tillage events led to a significant loss in SOC and microbial biomass C stocks at 0-40 cm depth in comparison with the permanent grassland, even 5 years after the tillage event. However, the tillage induced loss in microbial biomass C was roughly 40% less in the long-term than in the short-term of the current experiment, indicating a recovery process during grassland restoration. In general, mould board tillage and grassland conversion to maize monoculture promoted saprotrophic fungi at the expense of biotrophic AMF and bacteria compared to undisturbed grassland soils. Slurry application promoted bacterial residues as indicated by the decreases in both, the ergosterol to microbial biomass C ratio and the fungal C to bacterial C ratio. In addition, the lost microbial functional diversity due to tillage and maize monoculture was restored by slurry application both in arable and grassland soils. I conclude that the microbial biomass C/S ratio can be used as an additional indicator for a shift in microbial community. The strong relationships between microbial biomass and necromass indices points to the importance of saprotrophic fungi and biotrophic AMF for agricultural management induced effects on microbial turnover and ecosystem C storage. Quantitative information on exact biomass estimates of these two important fungal groups in soil is inevitably necessary to understand their different roles in SOM dynamics.

Cassava root peel as a replacement for maize in diets for growing pigs: effects on energy and nutrient digestibility, performance and carcass characteristics

Two experiments were conducted to evaluate cassava root peel (CRP) as diet component for fattening pigs. In the first experiment, ten male pigs were used to investigate the nutrient digestibility and the nutritive value of CRP as replacement for maize in the diet at 0 %, 30 %, 40 %, 50 % and 60 %, while supplementing free amino acids (fAA). During two experimental periods, faeces were quantitatively collected and analysed for chemical composition. In the second experiment, 40 pigs received the same diets as in Experiment 1, and daily feed intake and weekly weight changes were recorded. Four pigs per diet were slaughtered at 70 kg body weight to evaluate carcass traits. Digestibility of dry and organic matter, crude protein, acid detergent fibre and gross energy were depressed (p<0.05) at 60 % CRP; digestible energy content (MJ kg^(−1) DM) was 15.4 at 0 % CRP and 12.7 at 60 % CRP. In the second experiment, CRP inclusion had only a small impact on feed intake, weight gain and feed conversion ratio (p>0.05) as well as on the length of the small intestine and the Longissimus dorsi muscle area. The missing correlation of daily weight gain and feed-to-gain ratio up to a CRP inclusion of 40 % indicates that negative effects of CRP on pig growth can be avoided by respecting upper feeding limits. Hence, a combined use of CRP and fAA can reduce feeding costs for small-scale pig farmers in countries where this crop-by product is available in large amounts.

Sustainability of Small Scale Farming in a Mountain Region: Case Study of the Khaling Rai Population of the Solukhumbu, Nepal

The Khaling Rai live in a remote area of the mountain region of Nepal. Subsistence farming is central to their livelihood strategy, the sustainability of which was examined in this study. The sustainable livelihood approach was identified as a suitable theoretical framework to analyse the assets of the Khaling Rai. A baseline study was conducted using indicators to assess the outcome of the livelihood strategies under the three pillars of sustainability – economic, social and environmental. Relationships between key factors were analysed. The outcome showed that farming fulfils their basic need of food security, with self-sufficiency in terms of seeds, organic fertilisers and tools. Agriculture is almost totally non-monitized: crops are grown mainly for household consumption. However, the crux faced by the Khaling Rai community is the need to develop high value cash crops in order to improve their livelihoods while at the same time maintaining food security. Institutional support in this regard was found to be lacking. At the same time there is declining soil fertility and an expanding population, which results in smaller land holdings. The capacity to absorb risk is inhibited by the small size of the resource base and access only to small local markets. A two-pronged approach is recommended. Firstly, the formation of agricultural cooperative associations in the area. Secondly, through them the selection of key personnel to be put forward for training in the adoption of improved low-cost technologies for staple crops and in the introduction of appropriate new cash crops.

Technical and scale efficiency of cassava production system in Delta State, Nigeria: an application of Two-Stage DEA approach

The present study examines the level of pure technical and scale efficiencies of cassava production system including its sub-processes (that is production and processing stages) of 278 cassava farmers/processors from three regions of Delta State, Nigeria by applying Two-Stage Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) approach. Results reveal that pure technical efficiency (PTE) is significantly lower at the production stage 0.41 vs 0.55 for the processing stage, but scale efficiency (SE) is high at both stages (0.84 and 0.87), implying that productivity can be improved substantially by reallocation of resources and adjusting operation size. The socio-economic determinants exert differential impacts on PTE and SE at each stage. Overall, education, experience and main occupation as farmer significantly improve SE while subsistence pressure reduces it. Extension contact significantly improves SE at the processing stage but reduces PTE and SE overall. Inverse size-PTE and size-SE relationships exist in cassava production system. In other words, large/medium farms are technically and scale inefficient. Gender gap exists in performance. Male farmers are technically efficient at processing stage but scale inefficient overall. Farmers in northern region are technically efficient. Investments in education, extension services and infrastructure are suggested as policy options to improve the cassava sector in Nigeria.