Der zweite Golfkrieg (1990-1991)

Die Arbeit analysiert die Gründe, die erst zur Golfkrise führten und dann zum darauf folgenden Golfkrieg. Es geht diesbezüglich darum festzustellen, ob die damalige US Regierung unter George Bush, die Invasion Kuwaits zum Ausbau der US-amerikanischen Hegemonie nicht nur in der Golfregion ausnutzte, sondern ob sie die Invasion begünstigte oder sogar provozierte, um als Hegemon in den internationalen Beziehungen herrschen zu können. Aus Sicht der internationalen Mächte Konstellation ergab sich 1990, nach dem Fall der Berliner Mauer (1989) und letztendlich mit der Disintegration der Sowjet Union 1991, für die USA die Gelegenheit ohne großes realpolitisches Risiko einen Krieg in einer Region zu entfachen, mit dem sie als Sieger sich die Rohstoffe (Ö l, 2/3 der bekannten Welt Ö lreserven, ect) der Golfregion aneignen könnten. Ferner würde eine Dominanz über diese Region, die als geostrategisch äuß erst wichtig gilt ihren Status als Hegemon weiter ausbauen. Um die Entwicklung der US Hegemonie zu eruieren werden kurz weitere Stationen, nach dem Golfkrieg 1991, durchleuchtet: wie z.B. der Kosovo-Krieg 1999, der 11.9.2001, der Afghanistan Krieg 2001 & der 3. Golfkrieg der USA 2003. Theoretisch wird vor allem die Hegemonietheorie auf ihre Stärken und ggf. Schwächen, in Bezug auf den 2. Golfkrieg untersucht, um zu sehen ob sie nicht nur eine Erklärung für den Krieg abgeben kann, sondern auch ob sie den weiteren Verlauf der US Auß enpolitik eruieren kann. Der empirische Teil besteht größt enteils aus der diplomatischen Geschichte zwischen den Hauptakteuren Irak, USA, Kuwait, ect. Ö konomische Aspekte kommen vor allem bei der Analyse über die Auswirkung der damaligen (US) Rezession von 1990 zu Geltung und in wiefern diese die Golfkrise und den drauf folgenden Krieg beeinfluß ten. Gegen Ende der Arbeit werden die theoretischen und die empirischen Daten nochmals auf ihre Koherenz untersucht, um ein in sich geschlossenes Gesamtbild des 2. Golfkriegs und die darauf folgende US Auß enpolitik abzugeben.

Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Regional Labor Market Disparities

Regionale Arbeitsmärkte unterscheiden sich erheblich hinsichtlich wesentlicher Kennzahlen wie der Arbeitslosenquote, des Lohnniveaus oder der Beschäftigungsentwicklung. Wegen ihrer Persistenz sind diese Unterschiede von hoher Relevanz für die Politik. Die wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Literatur liefert bereits theoretische Modelle für die Analyse regionaler Arbeitsmärkte. In der Regel sind diese Modelle aber nicht dazu geeignet, regionale Arbeitsmarktunterschiede endogen zu erklären. Das bedeutet, dass sich die Unterschiede regionaler Arbeitsmärkte in der Regel nicht aus den Modellzusammenhängen selbst ergeben, sondern „von außen“ eingebracht werden müssen. Die empirische Literatur liefert Hinweise, dass die Unterschiede zwischen regionalen Arbeitsmärkten auf die Höhe der regionalen Arbeitsnachfrage zurückzuführen sind. Die Arbeitsnachfrage wiederum leitet sich aus den Gütermärkten ab: Es hängt von der Entwicklung der regionalen Gütermärkte ab, wie viele Arbeitskräfte benötigt werden. Daraus folgt, dass die Ursachen für Unterschiede regionaler Arbeitsmärkte in den Unterschieden zwischen den regionalen Gütermärkten zu suchen sind. Letztere werden durch die Literatur zur Neuen Ökonomischen Geographie (NÖG) untersucht. Die Literatur zur NÖG erklärt Unterschiede regionaler Gütermärkte, indem sie zentripetale und zentrifugale Kräfte gegenüberstellt. Zentripetale Kräfte sind solche, welche hin zur Agglomeration ökonomischer Aktivität wirken. Im Zentrum dieser Diskussion steht vor allem das Marktpotenzial: Unternehmen siedeln sich bevorzugt an solchen Standorten an, welche nahe an großen Märkten liegen. Erwerbspersonen wiederum bevorzugen solche Regionen, welche ihnen entsprechende Erwerbsaussichten bieten. Beides zusammen bildet einen sich selbst verstärkenden Prozess, der zur Agglomeration ökonomischer Aktivität führt. Dem stehen jedoch zentrifugale Kräfte gegenüber, welche eine gleichmäßigere Verteilung ökonomischer Aktivität bewirken. Diese entstehen beispielsweise durch immobile Produktionsfaktoren oder Ballungskosten wie etwa Umweltverschmutzung, Staus oder hohe Mietpreise. Sind die zentripetalen Kräfte hinreichend stark, so bilden sich Zentren heraus, in denen sich die ökonomische Aktivität konzentriert, während die Peripherie ausdünnt. In welchem Ausmaß dies geschieht, hängt von dem Verhältnis beider Kräfte ab. Üblicherweise konzentriert sich die Literatur zur NÖG auf Unterschiede zwischen regionalen Gütermärkten und geht von der Annahme perfekter Arbeitsmärkte ohne Arbeitslosigkeit aus. Die Entstehung und Persistenz regionaler Arbeitsmarktunterschiede kann die NÖG daher üblicherweise nicht erklären. An dieser Stelle setzt die Dissertation an. Sie erweitert die NÖG um Friktionen auf dem Arbeitsmarkt, um die Entstehung und Persistenz regionaler Arbeitsmarktunterschiede zu erklären. Sie greift dazu auf eine empirische Regelmäßigkeit zurück: Zahlreiche Studien belegen einen negativen Zusammenhang zwischen Lohn und Arbeitslosigkeit. In Regionen, in denen die Arbeitslosigkeit hoch ist, ist das Lohnniveau gering und umgekehrt. Dieser Zusammenhang wird als Lohnkurve bezeichnet. Auf regionaler Ebene lässt sich die Lohnkurve mithilfe der Effizienzlohntheorie erklären, die als theoretische Grundlage in der Dissertation Anwendung findet. Konzentriert sich nun die ökonomische Aktivität aufgrund der zentripetalen Kräfte in einer Region, so ist in diesem Zentrum die Arbeitsnachfrage höher. Damit befindet sich das Zentrum auf einer günstigen Position der Lohnkurve mit geringer Arbeitslosigkeit und hohem Lohnniveau. Umgekehrt findet sich die Peripherie auf einer ungünstigen Position mit hoher Arbeitslosigkeit und geringem Lohnniveau wieder. Allerdings kann sich die Lohnkurve in Abhängigkeit des Agglomerationsgrades verschieben. Das komplexe Zusammenspiel der endogenen Agglomeration mit den Arbeitsmarktfriktionen kann dann unterschiedliche Muster regionaler Arbeitsmarktdisparitäten hervorrufen. Die Dissertation zeigt auf, wie im Zusammenspiel der NÖG mit Effizienzlöhnen regionale Arbeitsmarktdisparitäten hervorgerufen werden. Es werden theoretische Modelle formuliert, die diese Interaktionen erklären und welche die bestehende Literatur durch spezifische Beiträge erweitern. Darüber hinaus werden die zentralen Argumente der Theorie einem empirischen Test unterworfen. Es kann gezeigt werden, dass das zentrale Argument – der positive Effekt des Marktpotentials auf die Arbeitsnachfrage – relevant ist. Außerdem werden Politikimplikationen abgeleitet und der weitere Forschungsbedarf aufgezeigt.

Understanding Recreational Services of Urban Riverfront Space for Planning Purposes

In the process of urbanization, natural and semi-natural landscapes are increasingly cherished as open space and recreational resource. Urban rivers are part of this kind of resource and thus play an important role in managing urban resilience and health. Employing the example of Tianjin, this doctoral dissertation research aims at learning to understand how to plan and design for the interface zones between urban water courses and for the land areas adjacent to such water courses. This research also aims at learning how to link waterfront space with other urban space in order to make a recreational space system for the benefit of people. Five questions of this dissertation are: 1) what is the role of rivers in spatial and open space planning? 2) What are the human needs regarding outdoor open space? 3) How do river and water front spatial structures affect people's recreational activities? 4) How to define the recreational service of urban river and waterfront open space? 5) How might answering these question change planning and design of urban open space? Quantitative and qualitative empirical approaches were combined in this study for which literature review and theoretical explorations provide the basis. Empirical investigations were conducted in the city of Tianjin. The quantitative approach includes conducting 267 quantitative interviews, and the qualitative approach includes carrying out field observations and mappings. GIS served to support analysis and visualization of empirical information that was generated through this study. By responding to the five research questions, findings and lessons include the following: 1) In the course of time rivers have gained importance in all levels and scales of spatial planning and decision making. Regarding the development of ecological networks, mainly at national scale, rivers are considered significant linear elements. Regarding regional and comprehensive development, river basins and watersheds are often considered as the structural link for strategic ecological, economic, social and recreational planning. For purposes of urban planning, particularly regarding recreational services in cities, the distribution of urban open spaces often follows the structure of river systems. 2) For the purpose of classifying human recreational needs that relate to outdoor open space Maslow's hierarchy of human needs serves as theoretical basis. The classes include geographical, safety, physiological, social and aesthetic need. These classes serve as references while analyzing river and waterfront open space and other kinds of open space. 3) Regarding the question how river and waterfront spatial structures might affect people's recreational activities, eight different landscape units were identified and compared in the case study area. Considering the thermal conditions of Tianjin, one of these landscape units was identified as affording the optimal spatial arrangement which mostly meets recreational needs. The size and the shape of open space, and the plants present in an open space have been observed as being most relevant regarding recreational activities. 4) Regarding the recreational service of urban river and waterfront open space the results of this research suggest that the recreational service is felt less intensively as the distances between water 183 front and open space user’s places of residence are increasing. As a method for estimating this ‘Service Distance Effect’ the following formula may be used: Y = a*ebx. In this equation Y means the ‘Service Distance’ between homes and open space, and X means the percentage of the people who live within this service distance. Coefficient "a" represents the distance of the residential area nearest to the water front. The coefficient "b" is a comprehensive capability index that refers to the size of the available and suitable recreational area. 5) Answers found to the questions above have implications for the planning and design of urban open space. The results from the quantitative study of recreational services of waterfront open space were applied to the assessment of river-based open space systems. It is recommended that such assessments might be done employing the network analysis function available with any GIS. In addition, several practical planning and designing suggestions are made that would help remedy any insufficient base for satisfying recreational needs. The understanding of recreational need is considered helpful for the proposing planning and designing ideas and for the changing of urban landscapes. In the course of time Tianjin's urban water system has shrunk considerably. At the same time rivers and water courses have shaped Tianjin's urban structure in noticeable ways. In the process of urbanization water has become increasingly important to the citizens and their everyday recreations. Much needs to be changed in order to improve recreational opportunities and to better provide for a livable city, most importantly when considering the increasing number of old people. Suggestions made that are based on results of this study, might be implemented in Tianjin. They are 1) to promote the quality of the waterfront open space and to make all linear waterfront area accessible recreational spaces. Then, 2), it is advisable to advocate the concept of green streets and to combine green streets with river open space in order to form an everyday recreational network. And 3) any sound urban everyday recreational service made cannot rely on only urban rivers; the whole urban structure needs to be improved, including adding small open space and optimize the form of urban communities, finally producing a multi-functional urban recreational network.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.