Entwicklung eines Windleistungprognosemodells zur Verbesserung der Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung

Die Maßnahmen zur Förderung der Windenergie in Deutschland haben wichtige Anstöße zur technologischen Weiterentwicklung geliefert und die Grundlagen für den enormen Anlagenzubau geschaffen. Die installierte Windleistung hat heute eine beachtliche Größenordnung erreicht und ein weiteres Wachstum in ähnlichen Dimensionen ist auch für die nächsten Jahre zu erwarten. Die aus Wind erzeugte elektrische Leistung deckt bereits heute in einigen Netzbereichen die Netzlast zu Schwachlastzeiten. Dies zeigt, dass die Windenergie ein nicht mehr zu vernachlässigender Faktor in der elektrischen Energieversorgung geworden ist. Im Rahmen der Kraftwerkseinsatzplanung sind Betrag und Verlauf der Windleistung des folgenden Tages mittlerweile zu wichtigen und zugleich schwierig zu bestimmenden Variablen geworden. Starke Schwankungen und falsche Prognosen der Windstromeinspeisung verursachen zusätzlichen Bedarf an Regel- und Ausgleichsleistung durch die Systemführung. Das im Rahmen dieser Arbeit entwickelte Prognosemodell liefert die zu erwartenden Windleistungen an 16 repräsentativen Windparks bzw. Gruppen von Windparks für bis zu 48 Stunden im Voraus. Aufgrund von prognostizierten Wetterdaten des deutschen Wetterdienstes (DWD) werden die Leistungen der einzelnen Windparks mit Hilfe von künstlichen neuronalen Netzen (KNN) berechnet. Diese Methode hat gegenüber physikalischen Verfahren den Vorteil, dass der komplexe Zusammenhang zwischen Wettergeschehen und Windparkleistung nicht aufwendig analysiert und detailliert mathematisch beschrieben werden muss, sondern anhand von Daten aus der Vergangenheit von den KNN gelernt wird. Das Prognosemodell besteht aus zwei Modulen. Mit dem ersten wird, basierend auf den meteorologischen Vorhersagen des DWD, eine Prognose für den Folgetag erstellt. Das zweite Modul bezieht die online gemessenen Leistungsdaten der repräsentativen Windparks mit ein, um die ursprüngliche Folgetagsprognose zu verbessern und eine sehr genaue Kurzzeitprognose für die nächsten drei bis sechs Stunden zu berechnen. Mit den Ergebnissen der Prognosemodule für die repräsentativen Standorte wird dann über ein Transformationsmodell, dem so genannten Online-Modell, die Gesamteinspeisung in einem größeren Gebiet berechnet. Das Prognoseverfahren hat seine besonderen Vorzüge in der Genauigkeit, den geringen Rechenzeiten und den niedrigen Betriebskosten, da durch die Verwendung des bereits implementierten Online-Modells nur eine geringe Anzahl von Vorhersage- und Messstandorten benötigt wird. Das hier vorgestellte Prognosemodell wurde ursprünglich für die E.ON-Netz GmbH entwickelt und optimiert und ist dort seit Juli 2001 im Einsatz. Es lässt sich jedoch auch leicht an andere Gebiete anpassen. Benötigt werden dazu nur die Messdaten der Leistung ausgewählter repräsentativer Windparks sowie die dazu gehörenden Wettervorhersagen, um die KNN entsprechend zu trainieren.

Precision mapping

The nondestructive determination of plant total dry matter (TDM) in the field is greatly preferable to the harvest of entire plots in areas such as the Sahel where small differences in soil properties may cause large differences in crop growth within short distances. Existing equipment to nondestructively determine TDM is either expensive or unreliable. Therefore, two radiometers for measuring reflected red and near-infrared light were designed, mounted on a single wheeled hand cart and attached to a differential Global Positioning System (GPS) to measure georeferenced variations in normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in pearl millet fields [Pennisetum glaucum (L.) R. Br.]. The NDVI measurements were then used to determine the distribution of crop TDM. The two versions of the radiometer could (i) send single NDVI measurements to the GPS data logger at distance intervals of 0.03 to 8.53 m set by the user, and (ii) collect NDVI values averaged across 0.5, 1, or 2 m. The average correlation between TDM of pearl millet plants in planting hills and their NDVI values was high (r^2 = 0.850) but varied slightly depending on solar irradiance when the instrument was calibrated. There also was a good correlation between NDVI, fractional vegetation cover derived from aerial photographs and millet TDM at harvest. Both versions of the rugged instrument appear to provide a rapid and reliable way of mapping plant growth at the field scale with a high spatial resolution and should therefore be widely tested with different crops and soil types.

Molecular mechanisms controlling the precision of chemokine guided cell migration

By the end of the first day of embryonic development, zebrafish primordial germ cells (PGCs) arrive at the site where the gonad develops. In our study we investigated the mechanisms controlling the precision of primordial germ cell arrival at their target. We found that in contrast with our expectations which were based on findings in Drosophila and mouse, the endoderm does not constitute a preferred migration substrate for the PGCs. Rather, endoderm derivatives are important for later stages of organogenesis keeping the PGC clusters separated. It would be interesting to investigate the precise mechanism by which endoderm controls germ cell position in the gonad. In their migration towards the gonad, zebrafish germ cells follow the gradient of chemokine SDF-1a, which they detect using the receptor CXCR4b that is expressed on their membrane. Here we show that the C-terminal region of CXCR4b is responsible for down-regulation of receptor activity as well as for receptor internalization. We demonstrate that receptor molecules unable to internalize are less potent in guiding germ cells to the site where the gonad develops, thereby implicating chemokine receptor internalization in facilitating precision of migration during chemotaxis in vivo. We demonstrate that while CXCR4b activity positively regulates the duration of the active migration phases, the down-regulation of CXCR4b signalling by internalization limits the duration of this phase. This way, receptor signalling contributes to the persistence of germ cell migration, whereas receptor down-regulation enables the cells to stop and correct their migration path close to the target where germ cells encounter the highest chemokine signal. Chemokine receptors are involved in directing cell migration in different processes such as lymphocyte trafficking, cancer and in the development of the vascular system. The C-terminal domain of many chemokine receptors was shown to be essential for controlling receptor signalling and internalization. It would therefore be important to determine whether the role for receptor internalization in vivo as described here (allowing periodical corrections to the migration route) and the mechanisms involved (reducing the level of signalling) apply for those other events, too.

An attempt on the calculation of relativistic potential energy curves: noble gas difluorides

Total energy SCF calculations were performed for noble gas difluorides in a relativistic procedure and compared with analogous non-relativistic calculations. The discrete variational method with numerical basis functions was used. Rather smooth potential energy curves could be obtained. The theoretical Kr - F and Xe - F bond distances were calculated to be 3.5 a.u. and 3.6 a.u. which should be compared with the experimental values of 3.54 a.u. and 3.7 a.u. Although the dissociation energies are off by a factor of about five it was found that ArF_2 may be a stable molecule. Theoretical ionization energies for the outer levels reproduce the experimental values for KrF_2 and XeF_2 to within 2 eV.

Relativistic Dirac-Fock-Slater program to calculate potential-energy curves for diatomic molecules

A LCAO-MO (linear combination of atomic orbitals - molecular orbitals) relativistic Dirac-Fock-Slater program is presented, which allows one to calculate accurate total energies for diatomic molecules. Numerical atomic Dirac-Fock-Slater wave functions are used as basis functions. All integrations as well as the solution of the Poisson equation are done fully numerical, with a relative accuracy of 10{^-5} - 10{^-6}. The details of the method as well as first results are presented here.

New calculations of P(b) curves for 1s_\sigma excitation in low-Z (Z\le10) ion-atom scattering

Ab initio fully relativistic SCF molecular calculations of energy eigenvalues as well as coupling-matrix elements are used to calculate the 1s_\sigma excitation differential cross section for Ne-Ne and Ne-O in ion-atom collisions. A relativistic perturbation treatment which allows a direct comparison with analogous non-relativistic calculations is also performed.

Precision laser spectroscopy of the ground state hyperfine splitting of hydrogenlike ^209 Bi^82+

The first direct observation of a hyperfine splitting in the optical regime is reported. The wavelength of the M1 transition between the F = 4 and F = 5 hyperfine levels of the ground state of hydrogenlike ^209 Bi^82+ was measured to be \lamda_0 = 243.87(4) nm by detection of laser induced fluorescence at the heavy-ion storage ring ESR at GSI. In addition, the lifetime of the laser excited F = 5 sublevel was determined to be \tau_0 = 0.351(16) ms. The method can be applied to a number of other nuclei and should allow a novel test of QED corrections in the previously unexplored combination of strong magnetic and electric fields in highly charged ions.

High-precision force sensing using a single trapped ion

We introduce quantum sensing schemes for measuring very weak forces with a single trapped ion. They use the spin-motional coupling induced by the laser-ion interaction to transfer the relevant force information to the spin-degree of freedom. Therefore, the force estimation is carried out simply by observing the Ramsey-type oscillations of the ion spin states. Three quantum probes are considered, which are represented by systems obeying the Jaynes-Cummings, quantum Rabi (in 1D) and Jahn-Teller (in 2D) models. By using dynamical decoupling schemes in the Jaynes-Cummings and Jahn-Teller models, our force sensing protocols can be made robust to the spin dephasing caused by the thermal and magnetic field fluctuations. In the quantum-Rabi probe, the residual spin-phonon coupling vanishes, which makes this sensing protocol naturally robust to thermally-induced spin dephasing. We show that the proposed techniques can be used to sense the axial and transverse components of the force with a sensitivity beyond the yN/\wurzel{Hz}range, i.e. in the xN/\wurzel{Hz}(xennonewton, 10^−27). The Jahn-Teller protocol, in particular, can be used to implement a two-channel vector spectrum analyzer for measuring ultra-low voltages.