Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Effects of grassland renovation on carbon concentrations and aggregate distribution in temperate grassland soils

The effects of continuous tillage on the distribution of soil organic matter (SOM) and aggregates have been well studied for arable soils. However, less is known about the effects of sporadic tillage on SOM and aggregate dynamics in grassland soils. The objectives of the present thesis were (I) to study the longer-term effects of sporadic tillage of grassland on organic carbon (Corg) stocks and the distribution of aggregates and SOM, (II) to investigate the combined effects of sporadic tillage and fertilization on carbon and nitrogen dynamics in grassland soils, and (III) to study the temporal dynamics of Corg stocks, aggregate distribution and microbial biomass in grassland soils. Soil samples were taken in three soil depths (0 – 10 cm; 10 – 25 cm; 25 – 40 cm) from a field trial with loamy sandy soils (Cambisols, Eutric Luvisols, Stagnosols, Anthrosols) north of Kiel, Germany. For Objective I we have sampled soil two and five years after one or two tillage operation(s). Treatments consisted of (i) permanent grassland, (ii) tillage of grassland followed by a re-establishment of grassland and (iii) tillage of grassland followed by a re-establishment of grassland with one season of winter wheat in between. The tillage in grassland led to a reduction in Corg stocks, large macroaggregates (>2000 µm) and SOM in the top 10 cm soil depth. These findings were still significant two years after tillage; however, five years after tillage no longer present. Regarding the soil profile (0 – 40 cm) no significant differences in the mentioned parameters between the tilled plots and the permanent grassland existed. A second tillage event and the insertion of one season of winter wheat did not lead to any further effects on Corg stocks as well as aggregate and SOM concentrations in comparison with a single tillage event in these grassland soils. Treatments adapted for Objective II included (i) long-term grassland and (ii) tillage of grassland followed by a re-establishment of grassland with one season of winter wheat in between. The plots were split and received either 240 kg N ha-1 year-1 in the form of cattle slurry or no cattle slurry application. The application of slurry within a period of four years had no effects on the Corg and total nitrogen stocks or the aggregate distribution, but led to a reduction of free and not physically protected SOM. However, the application of cattle slurry and the grassland renovation seems to change the plant species composition and therefore generalizations on the direct effects are not yet possible. For studying Objective III a further field trial was initiated in September 2010. Soil samples were taken six times within one year (from October 2010 to October 2011) (i) after the conversion from arable land into grassland, (ii) after the tillage of grassland followed by a re-establishment of grassland and (iii) in a permanent grassland. We found an increase in the microbial and fungal biomass after the conversion of arable land into grassland, but no effect on aggregate distribution and Corg stocks. A one-time tillage operation in grassland led to a reduction in large macroaggregates and Corg stocks in the top 10 cm soil depth with no effect on the sampled soil profile. However, we found large variations in the fungal biomass and aggregate distribution within one year in the permanent grassland, presumably caused by environmental factors. Overall, our results suggest that a single tillage operation in grassland soils markedly decreased the concentrations of Corg, larger aggregates and SOM. However, this does not result in long-lasting effects on the above mentioned parameters. The application of slurry cannot compensate the negative effects of a tillage event on aggregate concentrations or Corg stocks. However, while the Corg concentration is not subject to fluctuations within a year, there are large variations of the aggregate distribution even in a permanent grassland soil. Therefore conclusions of results from a single sampling time should be handled with care.