A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ‘Global Forest Products Model’ (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Shifting cultivation and forest resources in Nagaland, N.-E. India

Die vorliegende Studie befasst sich mit der Ressourcennachhaltigkeit der traditionellen, auf Wanderfeldbau beruhenden Subsistenzwirtschaft in zwei Dörfern (Hongphoy und Minyakshu) in Nagaland im Nordosten Indiens. Hierbei werden die Cerealien Produktion, der Feuerholz Konsum und auch die Folgen der intensivierten Bewirtschaftung (Forstdegradation und Bodenverarmung) im Hinblick auf das Bevölkerungswachstum diskutiert. Während das traditionelle System des Wanderfeldbaus (Jhum) seit Jahrzehnten die Bedürfnisse der ehemals kopfjagenden Stämme Nagalands erfüllte, ergab unsere Studie durch Interviews und Feldaufnahmen in 2004 und 2005, dass die steigende Nachfrage einer wachsenden Bevölkerung nach Cerealien und Feuerholz als wichtigste Ressourcen der Subsistenzwirtschaft zu einer verkürzten Brachezeit und letztlich der Degradation von Naturressourcen geführt hat: Pro Hektar Ernten sind reduziert und der Zuwachs der Holzvorräte auf den Feldern kann durch die verkürzten Bracheperioden nicht mehr die Feuerholz Nachfrage decken. Eine Nahrungsmittelknappheit wurde durch die Gegenüberstellung des Energiebedarfs einer Person und die jährlichen pro-Kopf Erntemengen und unter Berücksichtigung des Zukaufs von Reis reflektiert: In Hongphoy ergab dies ein Defizit auf Dorfebene von 130 Tonnen Reis, in Minyakshu von 480 Tonnen, die nicht durch Ernten gedeckt werden konnten. Diese Nahrungsmittelknappheit erweist sich vor allem vor dem Hintergrund eines Bevölkerungswachstums von 6.7% und marginalen Einkünften als problematisch. Für fünf verschiedene Waldformationen (zwei Brachewälder, zwei Dorfwälder und ein Naturwald) wurden die unterschiedliche Artenzusammensetzung (Diversität) und Bestandesvolumina durch Forstinventuren beschrieben. Der dem Bestandesvolumen der Brachewälder gegenübergestellte pro-Kopf Feuerholz Bedarf ergab ein jährliches Defizit von 1,81m³ in Hongphoy und 0.05m³ in Minyakshu. Der Unterschied dieses Defizits zwischen beiden Dörfern wurde in einer abweichenden Bestandesstruktur (Dominanz der N2 fixierenden Baumart Alnus nepalensis in den Brachewäldern Minyakshus) begründet. Über den erhobenen Feuerholzbedarf wurde ein theoretischer pro-Kopf Flächenbedarf an Brachewald errechnet, der nötig wäre um den gesamten Feuerholz Bedarf innerhalb des Wanderfeldbau Systems zu decken. Das daraus resultierende Defizit wurde mit den Feuerholzvolumina der Dorfwälder und des verbliebenen Naturwalds gegenüber gestellt. Hieraus ergibt sich die Bedeutung der Feuerholzernte und des Wanderfeldbau als Ursache für die fortschreitende Entwaldung und Forstdegradation in Nagaland. Mit Hilfe dieser Informationen und aktuellen Angaben zum Bevölkerungswachstum werden die Ergebnisse anhand einschlägiger Literatur diskutiert und letztendlich die Nachhaltigkeit und Tragfähigkeit des Wanderfeldbau Systems in dieser Region bestimmt. Mögliche Verbesserungsstrategien um der zunehmenden Ressourcendegradation zu begegnen, werden andiskutiert.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth’s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature’s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector’s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Downscaling and Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Hydrology and Water Resources in the Upper Blue Nile River Basin, Ethiopia

The Upper Blue Nile River Basin (UBNRB) located in the western part of Ethiopia, between 7° 45’ and 12° 45’N and 34° 05’ and 39° 45’E has a total area of 174962 km2 . More than 80% of the population in the basin is engaged in agricultural activities. Because of the particularly dry climate in the basin, likewise to most other regions of Ethiopia, the agricultural productivity depends to a very large extent on the occurrence of the seasonal rains. This situation makes agriculture highly vulnerable to the impact of potential climate hazards which are about to inflict Africa as a whole and Ethiopia in particular. To analyze these possible impacts of future climate change on the water resources in the UBNRB, in the first part of the thesis climate projection for precipitation, minimum and maximum temperatures in the basin, using downscaled predictors from three GCMs (ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3) under SRES scenarios A1B and A2 have been carried out. The two statistical downscaling models used are SDSM and LARS-WG, whereby SDSM is used to downscale ECHAM5-predictors alone and LARS-WG is applied in both mono-model mode with predictors from ECHAM5 and in multi-model mode with combined predictors from ECHAM5, GFDL21 and CSIRO-MK3. For the calibration/validation of the downscaled models, observed as well as NCEP climate data in the 1970 - 2000 reference period is used. The future projections are made for two time periods; 2046-2065 (2050s) and 2081-2100 (2090s). For the 2050s future time period the downscaled climate predictions indicate rise of 0.6°C to 2.7°C for the seasonal maximum temperatures Tmax, and of 0.5°C to 2.44°C for the minimum temperatures Tmin. Similarly, during the 2090s the seasonal Tmax increases by 0.9°C to 4.63°C and Tmin by 1°C to 4.6°C, whereby these increases are generally higher for the A2 than for the A1B scenario. For most sub-basins of the UBNRB, the predicted changes of Tmin are larger than those of Tmax. Meanwhile, for the precipitation, both downscaling tools predict large changes which, depending on the GCM employed, are such that the spring and summer seasons will be experiencing decreases between -36% to 1% and the autumn and winter seasons an increase of -8% to 126% for the two future time periods, regardless of the SRES scenario used. In the second part of the thesis the semi-distributed, physically based hydrologic model, SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool), is used to evaluate the impacts of the above-predicted future climate change on the hydrology and water resources of the UBNRB. Hereby the downscaled future predictors are used as input in the SWAT model to predict streamflow of the Upper Blue Nile as well as other relevant water resources parameter in the basin. Calibration and validation of the streamflow model is done again on 1970-2000 measured discharge at the outlet gage station Eldiem, whereby the most sensitive out the numerous “tuneable” calibration parameters in SWAT have been selected by means of a sophisticated sensitivity analysis. Consequently, a good calibration/validation model performance with a high NSE-coefficient of 0.89 is obtained. The results of the future simulations of streamflow in the basin, using both SDSM- and LARS-WG downscaled output in SWAT reveal a decline of -10% to -61% of the future Blue Nile streamflow, And, expectedly, these obviously adverse effects on the future UBNRB-water availibiliy are more exacerbated for the 2090’s than for the 2050’s, regardless of the SRES.

Survey of Agricultural Practices and Alternatives to Pesticide Use to Conserve Water Resources in the Mojanda Watershed, Ecuador

Agriculture in the Mojanda Watershed is facing rainfall reductions caused by climate change. Reductions of water availability in the Watershed are also due to constant extension of the agricultural activities into the páramo ecosystem above 3000m a.s.l., with this ecosystem having immanently important functions in the local water balance. The application of pesticides threatens the quality of water and with less precipitation contaminations will further concentrate in the outflow. To analyze problems associated with agricultural practices in the area a questionnaire about agricultural practices (28) was conducted and fields (20) were surveyed for pests and diseases with a focus on potatoes (Solanum tuberosum L.), tree tomatoes (Solanum betaceum Cav.) and peas (Pisum sativum L.). Potatoes were infected to a low degree with Phytophthora infestans and according to the farmers the Andean potato weevil (Premnotrypes spec.) caused biggest losses. To combat the weevil the soils are disinfected with toxic Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B). Tree tomatoes showed symptoms of various fungal diseases. Most important was Fusarium solani causing the branches to rot and Anthracnosis (Colletotrichum gloeosporioides) causing the fruits to rot. Fungicide applications were correspondingly high. Peas were only minorly affected by Ascochyta blight (Mycosphaerella pinodes) and a root rot. Overall 19 active ingredients were applied of which fungicide Mancozeb (WHO class table 5) and insecticide Carbofuran (WHO Class 1B) were applied the most. Approved IPM methods are advised to reduce pesticide use. For tree tomatoes regular cutting of branches infected with F. solani and regular collection and disposal of infected fruits with Anthracnosis are advised. For potatoes plastic barriers around the fields prevent the Andean potato weevil from laying eggs thus reducing infestation with the larvae in the tubers. Local bioinsecticide “Biol” seems effective and without harm to the environment, although not used by many farmers. Organic fertilization promises to restore decreasing soil fertility, water holding capacity and reduce erosion. The here presented alternatives and strategies to reduce pesticide use pose an opportunity to preserve the water resources of the region.

Indigenous Knowledge (IK) of Water Resources Management in West Sumatra, Indonesia

This study was aim to describe the indigenous knowledge of farmers at Nagari Padang laweh Malalo (NPLM) and their adaptability to climate change. Not only the water scarcity is feared, but climate change is also affecting their food security. Local food security can be achieved if biodiversity in their surrounding area is suitable to the local needs. The study was conducted by using Participatory Rural Appraisal (PRA) such as observation and discussion. The combination of in depth interview, life history, semi structure questionnaire, pictures, mapping and expert interviews was implemented. Data was analyzed by using MAXQDA 10 and F4 audio analysis software. The result shows awareness of the people and scarcity of water conditions has allowed the people of NPLM to face this challenge with wisdom. Aia adat (water resources controlled and regulate by custom) is one of their strategies to distribute the water. The general rule is that irrigation will flow from 6 pm – 6 am regularly to all farm land under supervision of kapalo banda. When rains occur, water resources can be used during the day without special supervision. They were used traditional knowledge to manage water resources for their land and daily usage. This study may be helpful for researcher and other farmers in different region to learn encounter water scarcity.

Drinking water issues in Rural India: Need for stakeholders’ participation in Water resources management

Water is the very essential livelihood for mankind. The United Nations suggest that each person needs 20-50 litres of water a day to ensure basic needs of drinking, cooking and cleaning. It was also endorsed by the Indian National Water Policy 2002, with the provision that adequate safe drinking water facilities should be provided to the entire population both in urban and in rural areas. About 1.42 million rural habitations in India are affected by chemical contamination. The provision of clean drinking water has been given priority in the Constitution of India, in Article 47 conferring the duty of providing clean drinking water and improving public health standards to the State. Excessive dependence of ground water results in depletion of ground water, water contamination and water borne diseases. Thus, access to safe and reliable water supply is one of the serious concerns in rural water supply programme. Though government takes certain serious steps in addressing the drinking water issues in rural areas, still there is a huge gap between demand and supply. The Draft National Water Policy 2012 also states that Water quality and quantity are interlinked and need to be managed in an integrated manner and with Stakeholder participation. Water Resources Management aims at optimizing the available natural water flows, including surface water and groundwater, to satisfy competing needs. The World Bank also emphasizes on managing water resources, strengthening institutions, identifying and implementing measures of improving water governance and increasing the efficiency of water use. Therefore stakeholders’ participation is viewed important in managing water resources at different levels and range. This paper attempts to reflect up on portray the drinking water issues in rural India, and highlights the significance of Integrated Water Resource Management as the significant part of Millennium Development Goals, and Stakeholders’ participation in water resources management.

Multi-Robot Task Allocation for Inspection Problems with Cooperative Tasks Using Hybrid Genetic Algorithms

In dieser Dissertation werden Methoden zur optimalen Aufgabenverteilung in Multirobotersystemen (engl. Multi-Robot Task Allocation – MRTA) zur Inspektion von Industrieanlagen untersucht. MRTA umfasst die Verteilung und Ablaufplanung von Aufgaben für eine Gruppe von Robotern unter Berücksichtigung von operativen Randbedingungen mit dem Ziel, die Gesamteinsatzkosten zu minimieren. Dank zunehmendem technischen Fortschritt und sinkenden Technologiekosten ist das Interesse an mobilen Robotern für den Industrieeinsatz in den letzten Jahren stark gestiegen. Viele Arbeiten konzentrieren sich auf Probleme der Mobilität wie Selbstlokalisierung und Kartierung, aber nur wenige Arbeiten untersuchen die optimale Aufgabenverteilung. Da sich mit einer guten Aufgabenverteilung eine effizientere Planung erreichen lässt (z. B. niedrigere Kosten, kürzere Ausführungszeit), ist das Ziel dieser Arbeit die Entwicklung von Lösungsmethoden für das aus Inspektionsaufgaben mit Einzel- und Zweiroboteraufgaben folgende Such-/Optimierungsproblem. Ein neuartiger hybrider Genetischer Algorithmus wird vorgestellt, der einen teilbevölkerungbasierten Genetischen Algorithmus zur globalen Optimierung mit lokalen Suchheuristiken kombiniert. Zur Beschleunigung dieses Algorithmus werden auf die fittesten Individuen einer Generation lokale Suchoperatoren angewendet. Der vorgestellte Algorithmus verteilt die Aufgaben nicht nur einfach und legt den Ablauf fest, sondern er bildet auch temporäre Roboterverbünde für Zweiroboteraufgaben, wodurch räumliche und zeitliche Randbedingungen entstehen. Vier alternative Kodierungsstrategien werden für den vorgestellten Algorithmus entworfen: Teilaufgabenbasierte Kodierung: Hierdurch werden alle möglichen Lösungen abgedeckt, allerdings ist der Suchraum sehr groß. Aufgabenbasierte Kodierung: Zwei Möglichkeiten zur Zuweisung von Zweiroboteraufgaben wurden implementiert, um die Effizienz des Algorithmus zu steigern. Gruppierungsbasierte Kodierung: Zeitliche Randbedingungen zur Gruppierung von Aufgaben werden vorgestellt, um gute Lösungen innerhalb einer kleinen Anzahl von Generationen zu erhalten. Zwei Umsetzungsvarianten werden vorgestellt. Dekompositionsbasierte Kodierung: Drei geometrische Zerlegungen wurden entworfen, die Informationen über die räumliche Anordnung ausnutzen, um Probleme zu lösen, die Inspektionsgebiete mit rechteckigen Geometrien aufweisen. In Simulationsstudien wird die Leistungsfähigkeit der verschiedenen hybriden Genetischen Algorithmen untersucht. Dazu wurde die Inspektion von Tanklagern einer Erdölraffinerie mit einer Gruppe homogener Inspektionsroboter als Anwendungsfall gewählt. Die Simulationen zeigen, dass Kodierungsstrategien, die auf der geometrischen Zerlegung basieren, bei einer kleinen Anzahl an Generationen eine bessere Lösung finden können als die anderen untersuchten Strategien. Diese Arbeit beschäftigt sich mit Einzel- und Zweiroboteraufgaben, die entweder von einem einzelnen mobilen Roboter erledigt werden können oder die Zusammenarbeit von zwei Robotern erfordern. Eine Erweiterung des entwickelten Algorithmus zur Behandlung von Aufgaben, die mehr als zwei Roboter erfordern, ist möglich, würde aber die Komplexität der Optimierungsaufgabe deutlich vergrößern.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

Dairy farms typology and management of animal genetic resources in the peri-urban zone of Bamako (Mali)

Facing growth in demand, dairy production in peri-urban areas of developing countries is changing rapidly. To characterise this development around Bamako (Mali), this study establishes a typology of dairy production systems with a special focus on animal genetic resources. The survey included 52 dairy cattle farms from six peri-urban sites. It was conducted in 2011 through two visits, in the dry and harvest seasons. The median cattle number per farm was 17 (range 5-118) and 42% of farmers owned cropland (8.3 +/- 7.3 ha, minimum 1 ha, maximum 25 ha). Feeding strategy was a crucial variable in farm characterisation, accounting for about 85% of total expenses. The use of artificial insemination and a regular veterinary follow-up were other important parameters. According to breeders’ answers, thirty genetic profiles were identified, from local purebreds to different levels of crossbreds. Purebred animals raised were Fulani Zebu (45.8%), Maure Zebu (9.2%), Holstein (3.0%), Azawak Zebu (1.3%), Mere Zebu (0.5%) and Kuri taurine (0.1%). Holstein crossbred represented 30.5% of the total number of animals (19.0% Fulani-Holstein, 11.2% Maure-Holstein and 0.3% Kuri-Holstein). Montbéliarde, Normande and Limousin crossbreds were also found (6.6%, 0.7% and 0.3%, respectively). A multivariate analysis helped disaggregate the diversity of management practices. The high diversity of situations shows the need for consideration of typological characteristics for an appropriate intervention. Although strongly anchored on local breeds, the peri-urban dairy systems included a diversity of exotic cattle, showing an uncoordinated quest of breeders for innovation. Without a public intervention, this dynamic will result in an irremediable erosion of indigenous animal genetic resources.

Evaluation of major feed resources in crop-livestock mixed farming systems, southern Ethiopia: Indigenous knowledge versus laboratory analysis results

Evaluation of major feed resources was conducted in four crop-livestock mixed farming systems of central southern Ethiopia, with 90 farmers, selected using multi-stage purposive and random sampling methods. Discussions were held with focused groups and key informants for vernacular name identification of feed, followed by feed sampling to analyse chemical composition (CP, ADF and NDF), in-vitro dry matter digestibility (IVDMD), and correlate with indigenous technical knowledge (ITK). Native pastures, crop residues (CR) and multi-purpose trees (MPT) are the major feed resources, demonstrated great variations in seasonality, chemical composition and IVDMD. The average CP, NDF and IVDMD values for grasses were 83.8 (ranged: 62.9–190), 619 (ranged: 357–877) and 572 (ranged: 317–743) g kg^(−1) DM, respectively. Likewise, the average CP, NDF and IVDMD for CR were 58 (ranged: 20–90), 760 (ranged: 340–931) and 461 (ranged: 285–637)g kg^(−1) DM, respectively. Generally, the MPT and non-conventional feeds (NCF, Ensete ventricosum and Ipomoea batatas) possessed higher CP (ranged: 155–164 g kg^(−1) DM) and IVDMD values (611–657 g kg^(−1) DM) while lower NDF (331–387 g kg^(−1) DM) and ADF (321–344 g kg^(−1) DM) values. The MPT and NCF were ranked as the best nutritious feeds by ITK while crop residues were the least. This study indicates that there are remarkable variations within and among forage resources in terms of chemical composition. There were also complementarities between ITK and feed laboratory results, and thus the ITK need to be taken into consideration in evaluation of local feed resources.