The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.

The role of ligneous vegetation for livestock nutrition in the sub-Sahelian and Sudanian zones of West Africa: Potential effects of climate change

Climate change and variability in sub-Saharan West Africa is expected to have negative consequences for crop and livestock farming due to the strong dependence of these sectors on rainfall and natural resources, and the low adaptive capacity of crops farmers, agro-pastoralist and pastoralists in the region. The objective of this PhD research was to investigate the anticipated impacts of expected future climate change and variability on nutrition and grazing management of livestock in the prevailing extensive agro-pastoral and pastoral systems of the Sahelian and Sudanian zones of Burkina Faso. To achieve this, three studies were undertaken in selected village territories (100 km² each) in the southern Sahelian (Taffogo), northern Sudanian (Nobere, Safane) and southern Sudanian (Sokouraba) zone of the country during 2009 and 2010. The choice of two villages in the northern Sudanian zone was guided by the dichotomy between intense agricultural land use and high population density near Safane, and lower agricultural land use in the tampon zone between the village of Nobere and the National Park Kaboré Tambi of Pô. Using global positioning and geographical information systems tools, the spatio-temporal variation in the use of grazing areas by cattle, sheep and goats, and in their foraging behaviour in the four villages was assessed by monitoring three herds each per species during a one-year cycle (Chapter 2). Maximum itinerary lengths (km/d) were observed in the hot dry season (March-May); they were longer for sheep (18.8) and cattle (17.4) than for goats (10.5, p<0.05). Daily total grazing time spent on pasture ranged from 6 - 11 h with cattle staying longer on pasture than small ruminants (p<0.05). Feeding time accounted for 52% - 72% of daily time on pasture, irrespective of species. Herds spent longer time on pasture and walked farther distances in the southern Sahelian than the two Sudanian zones (p<0.01), while daily feeding time was longer in the southern Sudanian than in the other two zones (p>0.05). Proportional time spent resting decreased from the rainy (June - October) to the cool (November - February) and hot dry season (p<0.05), while in parallel the proportion of walking time increased. Feeding time of all species was to a significantly high proportion spent on wooded land (tree crown cover 5-10%, or shrub cover >10%) in the southern Sahelian zone, and on forest land (tree crown cover >10%) in the two Sudanian zones, irrespective of season. It is concluded that with the expansion of cropland in the whole region, remaining islands of wooded land, including also fields fallowed for three or more years with their considerable shrub cover, are particularly valuable pasturing areas for ruminant stock. Measures must be taken that counteract the shrinking of wooded land and forests across the whole region, including also active protection and (re)establishment of drought-tolerant fodder trees. Observation of the selection behaviour of the above herds of cattle and small ruminant as far as browse species were concerned, and interviews with 75 of Fulani livestock keepers on use of browse as feed by their ruminant stock and as remedies for animal disease treatment was undertaken (Chapter 3) in order to evaluate the consequence of climate change for the contribution of browse to livestock nutrition and animal health in the extensive grazing-based livestock systems. The results indicated that grazing cattle and small ruminants do make considerable use of browse species on pasture across the studied agro-ecological zones. Goats spent more time (p<0.01) feeding on browse species than sheep and cattle, which spent a low to moderate proportion of their feeding time on browsing in any of the study sites. As far as the agro-ecological zones were concerned, the contribution of browse species to livestock nutrition was more important in the southern Sahelian and northern Sudanian zone than the southern Sudanian zone, and this contribution is higher during the cold and hot dry season than during the rainy season. A total of 75 browse species were selected on pasture year around, whereby cattle strongly preferred Afzelia africana, Pterocarpus erinaceus and Piliostigma sp., while sheep and goats primarily fed on Balanites aegyptiaca, Ziziphus mauritiana and Acacia sp. Crude protein concentration (in DM) of pods or fruits of the most important browse species selected by goats, sheep and cattle ranged from 7% to 13% for pods, and from 10% to 18% for foliage. The concentration of digestible organic matter of preferred browse species mostly ranged from 40% to 60%, and the concentrations of total phenols, condensed tannins and acid detergent lignin were low. Linear regression analyses showed that browse preference on pasture is strongly related to its contents (% of DM) of CP, ADF, NDF and OM digestibility. Interviewed livestock keepers reported that browse species are increasingly use by their grazing animals, while for animal health care use of tree- and shrub-based remedies decreased over the last two decades. It is concluded that due to climate change with expected negative impact on the productivity of the herbaceous layer of communal pastures browse fodder will gain in importance for animal nutrition. Therefore re-establishment and dissemination of locally adapted browse species preferred by ruminants is needed to increase the nutritional situation of ruminant stock in the region and contribute to species diversity and soil fertility restoration in degraded pasture areas. In Chapter 4 a combination of household surveys and participatory research approaches was used in the four villages, and additionally in the village of Zogoré (southern Sahelian zone) and of Karangasso Vigué (northern Sudanian zone) to investigate pastoralists’ (n= 76) and agro-pastoralists’ (n= 83) perception of climate change, and their adaptation strategies in crop and livestock production at farm level. Across the three agro-ecological zones, the majority of the interviewees perceived an increase in maximum day temperatures and decrease of total annual rainfall over the last two decades. Perceptions of change in climate patterns were in line with meteorological data for increased temperatures while for total rainfall farmers’ views contrasted the rainfall records which showed a slight increase of precipitation. According to all interviewees climate change and variability have negative impacts on their crop and animal husbandry, and most of them already adopted some coping and adaptation strategies at farm level to secure their livelihoods and reduce negative impacts on their farming system. Although these strategies are valuable and can help crop and livestock farmers to cope with the recurrent droughts and climate variability, they are not effective against expected extreme climate events. Governmental and non-governmental organisations should develop effective policies and strategies at local, regional and national level to support farmers in their endeavours to cope with climate change phenomena; measures should be site-specific and take into account farmers’ experiences and strategies already in place.

Human and Raptor Interactions in the Context of a Nomadic Society

This research project focuses on contemporary eagle-taming falconry practice of the Altaic Kazakhs animal herding society in Bayan Ulgii Province in Western Mongolia. It aims to contributing both theoretical and empirical criteria for cultural preservation of Asian falconry. This cultural as well as environmental discourse is illustrated with concentrated field research framed by ecological anthropology and ethno-ornithology from the viewpoint of “Human-Animal Interaction (HAI)” and “Human-Animal Behavior (HAB)”. Part I (Chapter 2 & 3) explores ethno-archaeological and ethno-ornithological dimensions by interpretive research of archaeological artefacts which trace the historical depth of Asian falconry culture. Part II (Chapter 4 & 5) provides an extensive ethnographic narrative of Altaic Kazakh falconry, which is the central part of this research project. The “Traditional Art and Knowledge (TAK)” in human-raptor interactions, comprising the entire cycle of capture, perch, feeding, training, hunting, and release, is presented with specific emphasis on its relation to environmental and societal context. Traditional falconry as integral part of a nomadic lifestyle has to face some critical problems nowadays which necessitate preventing the complete disappearance of this outstanding indigenous cultural heritage. Part III (Chapter 6 & 7) thus focuses on the cultural sustainability of Altaic Kazakh falconry. Changing livelihoods, sedentarisation, and decontextualisation are identified as major threats. The role of Golden Eagle Festivals is critically analysed with regard to positive and negative impact. This part also intends to contribute to the academic definition of eagle falconry as an intangible cultural heritage, and to provide scientific criteria for a preservation master plan, as well as stipulate local resilience by pointing to successive actions needed for conservation. This research project concludes that cultural sustainability of Altaic Kazakh falconry needs to be supported from the angles of three theoretical frameworks; (1) Cultural affairs for protection based on the concept of nature-guardianship in its cultural domain, (2) Sustainable development and improvement of animal herding productivity and herder’s livelihood, (3) Natural resource management, especially supporting the population of Golden Eagles, their potential prey animals, and their nesting environment.

Finding Spaces for Urban Food Production – Matching Spatial and Stakeholder Analysis with Urban Agriculture Approaches in the Urban Renewal Area of Dortmund-Hörde, Germany

Using the case of an economically declined neighbourhood in the post-industrial German Ruhr Area (sometimes characterized as Germany’s “Rust Belt”), we analyse, describe and conclude how urban agriculture can be used as a catalyst to stimulate and support urban renewal and regeneration, especially from a socio-cultural perspective. Using the methodological framework of participatory action research, and linking bottom-up and top-down planning approaches, a project path was developed to include the population affected and foster individual responsibility for their district, as well as to strengthen inhabitants and stakeholder groups in a permanent collective stewardship for the individual forms of urban agriculture developed and implemented. On a more abstract level, the research carried out can be characterized as a form of action research with an intended transgression of the boundaries between research, planning, design, and implementation. We conclude that by synchronously combining those four domains with intense feedback loops, synergies for the academic knowledge on the potential performance of urban agriculture in terms of sustainable development, as well as the benefits for the case-study area and the interests of individual urban gardeners can be achieved.

Pathogens occuring in the winter pea-maize-winter wheat rotation, their host specificity and the potential of compost in suppressing foot and root disease of peas

The overall aim of the work presented was to evaluate soil health management with a specific focus on soil borne diseases of peas. For that purpose field experiments were carried out from 2009 until 2013 to assess crop performance and pathogen occurrence in the rotation winter pea-maize-winter wheat and if the application of composts can improve system performance. The winter peas were left untreated or inoculated with Phoma medicaginis, in the presence or absence of yard waste compost at rate of 5 t dry matter ha-1. A second application of compost was made to the winter wheat. Fusarium ssp. were isolated and identified from the roots of all three crops and the Ascochyta complex pathogens on peas. Bioassays were conducted under controlled conditions to assess susceptibility of two peas to Fusarium avenaceum, F. solani, P. medicaginis and Didymella pinodes and of nine plant species to F. avenaceum. Also, effects of compost applications and temperature on pea diseases were assessed. Application of composts overall stabilized crop performance but it did not lead to significant yield increases nor did it affect pathogen composition and occurrence. Phoma medicaginis was dominating the pathogen complex on peas. F. graminearum, F. culmorum, F. proliferatum, Microdochium nivale, F. crookwellense, F. sambucinum, F. oxysporum, F. avenaceum and F. equiseti were frequently isolated species from maize and winter wheat with no obvious influence of the pre-crop on the Fusarium species composition. The spring pea Santana was considerably more susceptible to the pathogens tested than the winter pea EFB33 in both sterile sand and non-sterilized field soil. F. avenaceum was the most aggressive pathogen, followed by P. medicaginis, D. pinodes, and F. solani. Aggressiveness of all pathogens was greatly reduced in non-sterile field soil. F. avenaceum caused severe symptoms on roots of all nine plant species tested. Especially susceptible were Trifolium repens, T. subterraneum, Brassica juncea and Sinapis alba in addition to peas. Reduction of growing temperatures from 19/16°C day/night to 16/12°C and 13/10°C did not affect the efficacy of compost. It reduced plant growth and slightly increased disease on EFB33 whereas the highest disease severity on Santana was observed at the highest temperature, 19/16°C. Application of 20% v/v of compost reduced disease on peas due to all four pathogens depending on pea variety, pathogen and growing media used. Suppression was also achieved with lower application rate of 3.5% v/v. Tests with γ sterilized compost suggest that the suppression of disease caused by Fusarium spp. is biological in origin, whereas chemical and physical properties of compost are playing an additional role in the suppression of disease caused by D. pinodes and P. medicaginis.