3 resultados para Probability of choice

em Universitätsbibliothek Kassel, Universität Kassel, Germany


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The impacts of climate change are considered to be strong in countries located in tropical Africa that depend on agriculture for their food, income and livelihood. Therefore, a better understanding of the local dimensions of adaptation strategies is essential to develop appropriate measures that will mitigate adverse consequences. Hence, this study was conducted to identify the most commonly used adaptation strategies that farm households practice among a set of options to withstand the effects of climate change and to identify factors that affect the choice of climate change adaptation strategies in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia. To address this objective, Multivariate Probit model was used. The results of the model indicated that the likelihood of households to adapt improved varieties of crops, adjust planting date, crop diversification and soil conservation practices were 58.73%, 57.72%, 35.61% and 41.15%, respectively. The Simulated Maximum Likelihood estimation of the Multivariate Probit model results suggested that there was positive and significant interdependence between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and using improved varieties of crops; and between adjusting planting date and using improved varieties of crops. The results also showed that there was a negative and significant relationship between household decisions to adapt crop diversification and soil conservation practices. The paper also recommended household, socioeconomic, institutional and plot characteristics that facilitate and impede the probability of choosing those adaptation strategies.

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Protecting the quality of children growth and development becomes a supreme qualification for the betterment of a nation. Double burden child malnutrition is emerging worldwide which might have a strong influence to the quality of child brain development and could not be paid-off on later life. Milk places a notable portion during the infancy and childhood. Thus, the deep insight on milk consumption pattern might explain the phenomenon of double burden child malnutrition correlated to the cognitive impairments. Objective: Current study is intended (1) to examine the current face of Indonesian double burden child malnutrition: a case study in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, (2) to investigate the association of this phenomenon with child brain development, and (3) to examine the contribution of socioeconomic status and milk consumption on this phenomenon so that able to formulate some possible solutions to encounter this problem. Design: A cross-sectional study using a structured coded questionnaire was conducted among 387 children age 5-6 years old and their parents from 8 areas in Bogor, West-Java, Indonesia on November 2012 to December 2013, to record some socioeconomic status, anthropometric measurements, and history of breast feeding. Diet and probability of milk intake was assessed by two 24 h dietary recalls and food frequency questionnaire (FFQ). Usual daily milk intake was calculated using Multiple Source Method (MSM). Some brain development indicators (IQ, EQ, learning, and memory ability) using Projective Multi-phase Orientation method was also executed to learn the correlation between double burden child malnutrition and some brain development indicator. Results and conclusions: A small picture of child double burden malnutrition is shown in Bogor, West Java, Indonesia, where prevalence of Severe Acute Malnutrition (SAM) is 27.1%, Moderate Acute Malnutrition (MAM) is 24.9%, and overnutrition is 7.7%. This phenomenon proves to impair the child brain development. The malnourished children, both under- and over- nourished children have significantly (P-value<0.05) lower memory ability compared to the normal children (memory score, N; SAM = 45.2, 60; MAM = 48.5, 61; overweight = 48.4, 43; obesity = 47.9, 60; normal = 52.4, 163). The plausible reasons behind these evidences are the lack of nutrient intake during the sprout growth period on undernourished children or increasing adiposity on overnourished children might influence the growth of hippocampus area which responsible to the memory ability. Either undernutrition or overnutrition, the preventive action on this problem is preferable to avoid ongoing cognitive performance loss of the next generation. Some possible solutions for this phenomenon are promoting breast feeding initiation and exclusive breast feeding practices for infants, supporting the consumption of a normal portion of milk (250 to 500 ml per day) for children, and breaking the chain of poverty by socioeconomic improvement. And, the national food security becomes the fundamental point for the betterment of the next. In the global context, the causes of under- and over- nutrition have to be opposed through integrated and systemic approaches for a better quality of the next generation of human beings.

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Land tenure insecurity is widely perceived as a disincentive for long-term land improvement investment hence the objective of this paper is to evaluate how tenure (in)security associated with different land use arrangements in Ghana influenced households’ plot level investment decisions and choices. The paper uses data from the Farmer-Based Organisations (FBO) survey. The FBO survey collected information from 2,928 households across three ecological zones of Ghana using multistaged cluster sampling. Probit and Tobit models tested the effects of land tenancy and ownership arrangements on households’ investment behaviour while controlling other factors. It was found that marginal farm size was inversely related to tenure insecurity while tenure insecurity correlate positively with value of farm land and not farm size. Individual ownership and documentation of land significantly reduced the probability of households losing uncultivated lands. Individual land ownership increased both the probability of investing and level of investments made in land improvement and irrigation probably due to increasing importance households place on land ownership. Two possible explanations for this finding are: First, that land markets and land relations have changed significantly over the last two decades with increasing money transaction and fixed agreements propelled by population growth and increasing value of land. Secondly, inclusion of irrigation investment as a long term investment in land raises the value of household investment and the time period required to reap the returns on the investments. Households take land ownership and duration of tenancy into consideration if the resource implications of land investments are relatively huge and the time dimension for harvesting returns to investments is relatively long.