Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien

Sowohl die Ressourcenproblematik als auch die drohenden Ausmaße der Klimaänderung lassen einen Umstieg auf andere Energiequellen langfristig unausweichlich erscheinen und mittelfristig als dringend geboten. Unabhängig von der Frage, auf welchem Niveau sich der Energiebedarf stabilisieren lässt, bleibt dabei zu klären, welche Möglichkeiten sich aus technischer und wirtschaftlicher Sicht in Zukunft zur Deckung unseres Energiebedarfs anbieten. Eine aussichtsreiche Option besteht in der Nutzung regenerativer Energien in ihrer ganzen Vielfalt. Die Arbeit "Szenarien zur zukünftigen Stromversorgung, kostenoptimierte Variationen zur Versorgung Europas und seiner Nachbarn mit Strom aus erneuerbaren Energien" konzentriert sich mit der Stromversorgung auf einen Teilaspekt der Energieversorgung, der zunehmend an Wichtigkeit gewinnt und als ein Schlüssel zur nachhaltigen Energieversorgung interpretiert werden kann. Die Stromversorgung ist heute weltweit für etwa die Hälfte des anthropogenen CO2-Ausstoßes verantwortlich. In dieser Arbeit wurden anhand verschiedener Szenarien Möglichkeiten einer weitgehend CO2–neutralen Stromversorgung für Europa und seine nähere Umgebung untersucht, wobei das Szenariogebiet etwa 1,1 Mrd. Einwohner und einen Stromverbrauch von knapp 4000 TWh/a umfasst. Dabei wurde untersucht, wie die Stromversorgung aufgebaut sein sollte, damit sie möglichst kostengünstig verwirklicht werden kann. Diese Frage wurde beispielsweise für Szenarien untersucht, in denen ausschließlich heute marktverfügbare Techniken berücksichtigt wurden. Auch der Einfluss der Nutzung einiger neuer Technologien, die bisher noch in Entwicklung sind, auf die optimale Gestaltung der Stromversorgung, wurde anhand einiger Beispiele untersucht. Die Konzeption der zukünftigen Stromversorgung sollte dabei nach Möglichkeit objektiven Kriterien gehorchen, die auch die Vergleichbarkeit verschiedener Versorgungsansätze gewährleisten. Dafür wurde ein Optimierungsansatz gewählt, mit dessen Hilfe sowohl bei der Konfiguration als auch beim rechnerischen Betrieb des Stromversorgungssystems weitgehend auf subjektive Entscheidungsprozesse verzichtet werden kann. Die Optimierung hatte zum Ziel, für die definierte möglichst realitätsnahe Versorgungsaufgabe den idealen Kraftwerks- und Leitungspark zu bestimmen, der eine kostenoptimale Stromversorgung gewährleistet. Als Erzeugungsoptionen werden dabei u.a. die Nutzung Regenerativer Energien durch Wasserkraftwerke, Windenergiekonverter, Fallwindkraftwerke, Biomassekraftwerke sowie solare und geothermische Kraftwerke berücksichtigt. Abhängig von den gewählten Randbedingungen ergaben sich dabei unterschiedliche Szenarien. Das Ziel der Arbeit war, mit Hilfe unterschiedlicher Szenarien eine breite Basis als Entscheidungsgrundlage für zukünftige politische Weichenstellungen zu schaffen. Die Szenarien zeigen Optionen für eine zukünftige Gestaltung der Stromversorgung auf, machen Auswirkungen verschiedener – auch politischer – Rahmenbedingungen deutlich und stellen so die geforderte Entscheidungsgrundlage bereit. Als Grundlage für die Erstellung der Szenarien mussten die verschiedenen Potentiale erneuerbarer Energien in hoher zeitlicher und räumlicher Auflösung ermittelt werden, mit denen es erstmals möglich war, die Fragen einer großräumigen regenerativen Stromversorgung ohne ungesicherte Annahmen anhand einer verlässlichen Datengrundlage anzugehen. Auch die Charakteristika der verschiedensten Energiewandlungs- und Transportsysteme mussten studiert werden und sind wie deren Kosten und die verschiedenen Potentiale in der vorliegenden Arbeit ausführlich diskutiert. Als Ausgangsszenario und Bezugspunkt dient ein konservatives Grundszenario. Hierbei handelt es sich um ein Szenario für eine Stromversorgung unter ausschließlicher Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien, die wiederum ausschließlich auf heute bereits entwickelte Technologien zurückgreift und dabei für alle Komponenten die heutigen Kosten zugrundelegt. Dieses Grundszenario ist dementsprechend auch als eine Art konservative Worst-Case-Abschätzung für unsere Zukunftsoptionen bei der regenerativen Stromversorgung zu verstehen. Als Ergebnis der Optimierung basiert die Stromversorgung beim Grundszenario zum größten Teil auf der Stromproduktion aus Windkraft. Biomasse und schon heute bestehende Wasserkraft übernehmen den überwiegenden Teil der Backup-Aufgaben innerhalb des – mit leistungsstarker HGÜ (Hochspannungs–Gleichstrom–Übertragung) verknüpften – Stromversorgungsgebiets. Die Stromgestehungskosten liegen mit 4,65 €ct / kWh sehr nahe am heute Üblichen. Sie liegen niedriger als die heutigen Preisen an der Strombörse. In allen Szenarien – außer relativ teuren, restriktiv ”dezentralen” unter Ausschluss großräumig länderübergreifenden Stromtransports – spielt der Stromtransport eine wichtige Rolle. Er wird genutzt, um Ausgleichseffekte bei der dargebotsabhängigen Stromproduktion aus erneuerbaren Quellen zu realisieren, gute kostengünstige Potentiale nutzbar zu machen und um die Speicherwasserkraft sowie die dezentral genutzte Biomasse mit ihrer Speicherfähigkeit für großräumige Backup-Aufgaben zu erschließen. Damit erweist sich der Stromtransport als einer der Schlüssel zu einer kostengünstigen Stromversorgung. Dies wiederum kann als Handlungsempfehlung bei politischen Weichenstellungen interpretiert werden, die demnach gezielt auf internationale Kooperation im Bereich der Nutzung erneuerbarer Energien setzen und insbesondere den großräumigen Stromtransport mit einbeziehen sollten. Die Szenarien stellen detaillierte und verlässliche Grundlagen für wichtige politische und technologische Zukunftsentscheidungen zur Verfügung. Sie zeigen, dass bei internationaler Kooperation selbst bei konservativen Annahmen eine rein regenerative Stromversorgung möglich ist, die wirtschaftlich ohne Probleme zu realisieren wäre und verweisen den Handlungsbedarf in den Bereich der Politik. Eine wesentliche Aufgabe der Politik läge darin, die internationale Kooperation zu organisieren und Instrumente für eine Umgestaltung der Stromversorgung zu entwickeln. Dabei kann davon ausgegangen werden, dass nicht nur ein sinnvoller Weg zu einer CO2–neutralen Stromversorgung beschritten würde, sondern sich darüber hinaus ausgezeichnete Entwicklungsperspektiven für die ärmeren Nachbarstaaten der EU und Europas eröffnen.

Research through DESIGN through research - a problem statement and a conceptual sketch

This paper re-addresses the issue of a lacking genuine design research paradigm. It tries to sketch an operational model of such a paradigm, based upon a generic design process model, which is derived from basic notions of evolution and learning in different domains of knowing (and turns out to be not very different from existing ones). It does not abandon the scientific paradigm but concludes that the latter has to be embedded into / subordinated under a design paradigm.

The problem of noncharacteristic quasimolecular X-rays in heavy ion collision

Quasi-molecular X-rays observed in heavy ion collisions are interpreted within a relativistic calculation of correlation diagrams using the Dirac-Slater model. A semiquantitative description of noncharacteristic M X rays is given for the system Au-I.

Approximate solutions and error estimates for a Stokes boundary value problem

The aim of this paper is the numerical treatment of a boundary value problem for the system of Stokes' equations. For this we extend the method of approximate approximations to boundary value problems. This method was introduced by V. Maz'ya in 1991 and has been used until now for the approximation of smooth functions defined on the whole space and for the approximation of volume potentials. In the present paper we develop an approximation procedure for the solution of the interior Dirichlet problem for the system of Stokes' equations in two dimensions. The procedure is based on potential theoretical considerations in connection with a boundary integral equations method and consists of three approximation steps as follows. In a first step the unknown source density in the potential representation of the solution is replaced by approximate approximations. In a second step the decay behavior of the generating functions is used to gain a suitable approximation for the potential kernel, and in a third step Nyström's method leads to a linear algebraic system for the approximate source density. For every step a convergence analysis is established and corresponding error estimates are given.

Mathematical problem solving, modelling, applications, and links to other subjects

The paper will consist of three parts. In part I we shall present some background considerations which are necessary as a basis for what follows. We shall try to clarify some basic concepts and notions, and we shall collect the most important arguments (and related goals) in favour of problem solving, modelling and applications to other subjects in mathematics instruction. In the main part II we shall review the present state, recent trends, and prospective lines of development, both in empirical or theoretical research and in the practice of mathematics instruction and mathematics education, concerning problem solving, modelling, applications and relations to other subjects. In particular, we shall identify and discuss four major trends: a widened spectrum of arguments, an increased globality, an increased unification, and an extended use of computers. In the final part III we shall comment upon some important issues and problems related to our topic.

Applied mathematical problem solving, modelling, applications, and links to other subjects

The paper will consist of three parts. In part I we shall present some background considerations which are necessary as a basis for what follows. We shall try to clarify some basic concepts and notions, and we shall collect the most important arguments (and related goals) in favour of problem solving, modelling and applications to other subjects in mathematics instruction. In the main part II we shall review the present state, recent trends, and prospective lines of development, both in empirical or theoretical research and in the practice of mathematics instruction and mathematics education, concerning (applied) problem solving, modelling, applications and relations to other subjects. In particular, we shall identify and discuss four major trends: a widened spectrum of arguments, an increased globality, an increased unification, and an extended use of computers. In the final part III we shall comment upon some important issues and problems related to our topic.

The problem of the graphic artist

'The problem of the graphic artist' is a small example of applying elementary mathematics (divisibility of natural numbers) to a real problem which we ourselves have actually experienced. It deals with the possibilities for partitioning a sheet of paper into strips. In this contribution we report on a teaching unit in grade 6 as well as on informal tests with students in school and university. Finally we analyse this example methodologically, summarise our observations with pupils and students, and draw some didactical conclusions.

Cleanliness versus cow comfort – an insolvable problem?

Cubicle should provide good resting comfort as well as clean udders. Dairy cows in cubicle houses often face a restrictive environment with regard to resting behaviour, whereas cleanliness may still be impaired. This study aimed to determine reliable behavioural measures regarding resting comfort applicable in on-farm welfare assessments. Furthermore, relationships between cubicle design, cow sizes, management factors and udder cleanliness (namely teats and teat tips) were investigated. Altogether 15 resting measures were examined in terms of feasibility, inter-observer reliability (IOR) and consistency of results per farm over time. They were recorded during three farm visits on farms in Germany and Austria with cubicle, deep litter and tie stall systems. Seven measures occurred to infrequently to allow reliable recording within a limited observation time. IOR was generally acceptable to excellent except for 'collisions during lying down', which only showed good IOR after improvement of the definition. Only three measures were acceptably repeatable over time: 'duration of lying down', 'percentage of collisions during lying down' and 'percentage of cows lying partly or completely outside lying area'. These measures were evaluated as suitable animal based welfare measures regarding resting behaviour in the framework of an on-farm welfare assessment protocol. The second part of the thesis comprises a cross-sectional study on resting comfort and cow cleanliness including 23 Holstein Friesian dairy herds with very low within-farm variation in cubicle measures. Height at withers, shoulder width and diagonal body length were measured in 79-100 % of the cows (herd size 30 to115 cows). Based on the 25 % largest animals, compliance with recommendations for cubicle measures was calculated. Cleanliness of different body parts, the udder, teats and teat tips was assessed for each cow in the herd prior to morning milking. No significant correlation was found between udder soiling and teat or teat tip soiling on herd level. The final model of a stepwise regression regarding the percentage of dirty teats per farm explained 58.5 % the variance and contained four factors. Teat dipping after milking which might be associated with an overall clean and accurate management style, deep bedded cubicles, increasing cubicle maintenance times and decreasing compliance concerning total cubicle length predicted lower teat soiling. The final model concerning teat tip soiling explained 46.0 % of the variance and contained three factors. Increasing litter height in the rear part of the cubicle and increased alley soiling which is difficult to explain, predicted for less soiled teat tips, whereas increasing compliance concerning resting length was associated with higher percentages of dirty teat tips. The dependent variable ‘duration of lying down’ was analysed using again stepwise regression. The final model explained 54.8 % of the total variance. Lying down duration was significantly shorter in deep bedded cubicles. Further explanatory though not significant factors in the model were neck-rail height, deep bedding or comfort mattresses versus concrete floor or rubber mats and clearance height of side partitions. In the attempt to create a more comprehensive lying down measure, another analysis was carried out with percentage of ‘impaired lying down’ (i.e. events exceeding 6.3 seconds, with collisions or being interrupted) as dependent variable. The explanatory value of this final model was 41.3 %. An increase in partition length, in compliance concerning cubicle width and the presence of straw within bedding predicted a lower proportion of impaired lying down. The effect of partition length is difficult to interpret, but partition length and height were positively correlated on the study farms, possibly leading to a bigger zone of clear space for pelvis freedom. No associations could be found between impaired lying down and teat or teat tip soiling. Altogether, in agreement with earlier studies it was found that cubicle dimensions in practice are often inadequate with regard to the body dimensions of the cows, leading to high proportions of impaired lying down behaviour, whereas teat cleanliness is still unsatisfactory. Connections between cleanliness and cow comfort are far from simplistic. Especially the relationship between cubicle characteristics and lying down behaviour apparently is very complex, so that it is difficult to identify single influential factors that are valid for all farm situations. However, based on the results of the present study the use of deep bedded cubicles can be recommended as well as improved management with special regard to cubicle and litter maintenance in order to achieve both better resting comfort and teat cleanliness.

Optimization-Based Robotic Manipulation for Safe Interaction with Human Operators

This thesis investigates a method for human-robot interaction (HRI) in order to uphold productivity of industrial robots like minimization of the shortest operation time, while ensuring human safety like collision avoidance. For solving such problems an online motion planning approach for robotic manipulators with HRI has been proposed. The approach is based on model predictive control (MPC) with embedded mixed integer programming. The planning strategies of the robotic manipulators mainly considered in the thesis are directly performed in the workspace for easy obstacle representation. The non-convex optimization problem is approximated by a mixed-integer program (MIP). It is further effectively reformulated such that the number of binary variables and the number of feasible integer solutions are drastically decreased. Safety-relevant regions, which are potentially occupied by the human operators, can be generated online by a proposed method based on hidden Markov models. In contrast to previous approaches, which derive predictions based on probability density functions in the form of single points, such as most likely or expected human positions, the proposed method computes safety-relevant subsets of the workspace as a region which is possibly occupied by the human at future instances of time. The method is further enhanced by combining reachability analysis to increase the prediction accuracy. These safety-relevant regions can subsequently serve as safety constraints when the motion is planned by optimization. This way one arrives at motion plans that are safe, i.e. plans that avoid collision with a probability not less than a predefined threshold. The developed methods have been successfully applied to a developed demonstrator, where an industrial robot works in the same space as a human operator. The task of the industrial robot is to drive its end-effector according to a nominal sequence of grippingmotion-releasing operations while no collision with a human arm occurs.

Identification of Problem-based learning components and their effects on graduates' competencies

This study investigated the relationship between higher education and the requirement of the world of work with an emphasis on the effect of problem-based learning (PBL) on graduates' competencies. The implementation of full PBL method is costly (Albanese & Mitchell, 1993; Berkson, 1993; Finucane, Shannon, & McGrath, 2009). However, the implementation of PBL in a less than curriculum-wide mode is more achievable in a broader context (Albanese, 2000). This means higher education institutions implement only a few PBL components in the curriculum. Or a teacher implements a few PBL components at the courses level. For this kind of implementation there is a need to identify PBL components and their effects on particular educational outputs (Hmelo-Silver, 2004; Newman, 2003). So far, however there has been little research about this topic. The main aims of this study were: (1) to identify each of PBL components which were manifested in the development of a valid and reliable PBL implementation questionnaire and (2) to determine the effect of each identified PBL component to specific graduates' competencies. The analysis was based on quantitative data collected in the survey of medicine graduates of Gadjah Mada University, Indonesia. A total of 225 graduates responded to the survey. The result of confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) showed that all individual constructs of PBL and graduates' competencies had acceptable GOFs (Goodness-of-fit). Additionally, the values of the factor loadings (standardize loading estimates), the AVEs (average variance extracted), CRs (construct reliability), and ASVs (average shared squared variance) showed the proof of convergent and discriminant validity. All values indicated valid and reliable measurements. The investigation of the effects of PBL showed that each PBL component had specific effects on graduates' competencies. Interpersonal competencies were affected by Student-centred learning (β = .137; p < .05) and Small group components (β = .078; p < .05). Problem as stimulus affected Leadership (β = .182; p < .01). Real-world problems affected Personal and organisational competencies (β = .140; p < .01) and Interpersonal competencies (β = .114; p < .05). Teacher as facilitator affected Leadership (β = 142; p < .05). Self-directed learning affected Field-related competencies (β = .080; p < .05). These results can help higher education institution and educator to have informed choice about the implementation of PBL components. With this information higher education institutions and educators could fulfil their educational goals and in the same time meet their limited resources. This study seeks to improve prior studies' research method in four major ways: (1) by indentifying PBL components based on theory and empirical data; (2) by using latent variables in the structural equation modelling instead of using a variable as a proxy of a construct; (3) by using CFA to validate the latent structure of the measurement, thus providing better evidence of validity; and (4) by using graduate survey data which is suitable for analysing PBL effects in the frame work of the relationship between higher education and the world of work.