On-line analytical processing with conceptual information systems

A conceptual information system consists of a database together with conceptual hierarchies. The management system TOSCANA visualizes arbitrary combinations of conceptual hierarchies by nested line diagrams and allows an on-line interaction with a database to analyze data conceptually. The paper describes the conception of conceptual information systems and discusses the use of their visualization techniques for on-line analytical processing (OLAP).

A finite state model for on-line analytical processing in triadic contexts

About ten years ago, triadic contexts were presented by Lehmann and Wille as an extension of Formal Concept Analysis. However, they have rarely been used up to now, which may be due to the rather complex structure of the resulting diagrams. In this paper, we go one step back and discuss how traditional line diagrams of standard (dyadic) concept lattices can be used for exploring and navigating triadic data. Our approach is inspired by the slice & dice paradigm of On-Line-Analytical Processing (OLAP). We recall the basic ideas of OLAP, and show how they may be transferred to triadic contexts. For modeling the navigation patterns a user might follow, we use the formalisms of finite state machines. In order to present the benefits of our model, we show how it can be used for navigating the IT Baseline Protection Manual of the German Federal Office for Information Security.

Klassifikationsgestützte on-line Adaption eines robusten beobachterbasierten Fehlerdiagnoseansatzes für nichtlineare Systeme

Diese Arbeit behandelt die Problemstellung der modellbasierten Fehlerdiagnose für Lipschitz-stetige nichtlineare Systeme mit Unsicherheiten. Es wird eine neue adaptive Fehlerdiagnosemethode vorgestellt. Erkenntnisse und Verfahren aus dem Bereich der Takagi-Sugeno (TS) Fuzzy-Modellbildung und des Beobachterentwurfs sowie der Sliding-Mode (SM) Theorie werden genutzt, um einen neuartigen robusten und nichtlinearen TS-SM-Beobachter zu entwickeln. Durch diese Zusammenführung lassen sich die jeweiligen Vorteile beider Ansätze miteinander kombinieren. Bedingungen zur Konvergenz des Beobachters werden als lineare Matrizenungleichungen (LMIs) abgeleitet. Diese Bedingungen garantieren zum einen die Stabilität und liefern zum anderen ein direktes Entwurfsverfahren für den Beobachter. Der Beobachterentwurf wird für die Fälle messbarer und nicht messbarer Prämissenvariablen angegeben. Durch die TS-Erweiterung des in dieser Arbeit verwendeten SM-Beobachters ist es möglich, den diskontinuierlichen Rückführterm mithilfe einer geeigneten kontinuierlichen Funktion zu approximieren und dieses Signal daraufhin zur Fehlerdiagnose auszuwerten. Dies liefert eine Methodik zur Aktor- und Sensorfehlerdiagnose nichtlinearer unsicherer Systeme. Gegenüber anderen Ansätzen erlaubt das Vorgehen eine quantitative Bestimmung und teilweise sogar exakte Rekonstruktion des Fehlersignalverlaufs. Darüber hinaus ermöglicht der Ansatz die Berechnung konstanter Fehlerschwellen direkt aus dem physikalischen Vorwissen über das betrachtete System. Durch eine Erweiterung um eine Betriebsphasenerkennung wird es möglich, die Schwellenwerte des Fehlerdiagnoseansatzes online an die aktuelle Betriebsphase anzupassen. Hierdurch ergibt sich in Betriebsphasen mit geringen Modellunsicherheiten eine deutlich erhöhte Fehlersensitivität. Zudem werden in Betriebsphasen mit großen Modellunsicherheiten Falschalarme vermieden. Die Kernidee besteht darin, die aktuelle Betriebsphase mittels eines Bayes-Klassikators in Echtzeit zu ermitteln und darüber die Fehlerschwellen an die a-priori de nierten Unsicherheiten der unterschiedlichen Betriebsphasen anzupassen. Die E ffektivität und Übertragbarkeit der vorgeschlagenen Ansätze werden einerseits am akademischen Beispiel des Pendelwagens und anderseits am Beispiel der Sensorfehlerdiagnose hydrostatisch angetriebener Radlader als praxisnahe Anwendung demonstriert.

The prediction of seasonal and inter-annual climate variations and their impacts on the water resources in the eastern seaboard of Thailand

The research of this thesis dissertation covers developments and applications of short-and long-term climate predictions. The short-term prediction emphasizes monthly and seasonal climate, i.e. forecasting from up to the next month over a season to up to a year or so. The long-term predictions pertain to the analysis of inter-annual- and decadal climate variations over the whole 21st century. These two climate prediction methods are validated and applied in the study area, namely, Khlong Yai (KY) water basin located in the eastern seaboard of Thailand which is a major industrial zone of the country and which has been suffering from severe drought and water shortage in recent years. Since water resources are essential for the further industrial development in this region, a thorough analysis of the potential climate change with its subsequent impact on the water supply in the area is at the heart of this thesis research. The short-term forecast of the next-season climate, such as temperatures and rainfall, offers a potential general guideline for water management and reservoir operation. To that avail, statistical models based on autoregressive techniques, i.e., AR-, ARIMA- and ARIMAex-, which includes additional external regressors, and multiple linear regression- (MLR) models, are developed and applied in the study region. Teleconnections between ocean states and the local climate are investigated and used as extra external predictors in the ARIMAex- and the MLR-model and shown to enhance the accuracy of the short-term predictions significantly. However, as the ocean state – local climate teleconnective relationships provide only a one- to four-month ahead lead time, the ocean state indices can support only a one-season-ahead forecast. Hence, GCM- climate predictors are also suggested as an additional predictor-set for a more reliable and somewhat longer short-term forecast. For the preparation of “pre-warning” information for up-coming possible future climate change with potential adverse hydrological impacts in the study region, the long-term climate prediction methodology is applied. The latter is based on the downscaling of climate predictions from several single- and multi-domain GCMs, using the two well-known downscaling methods SDSM and LARS-WG and a newly developed MLR-downscaling technique that allows the incorporation of a multitude of monthly or daily climate predictors from one- or several (multi-domain) parent GCMs. The numerous downscaling experiments indicate that the MLR- method is more accurate than SDSM and LARS-WG in predicting the recent past 20th-century (1971-2000) long-term monthly climate in the region. The MLR-model is, consequently, then employed to downscale 21st-century GCM- climate predictions under SRES-scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. However, since the hydrological watershed model requires daily-scale climate input data, a new stochastic daily climate generator is developed to rescale monthly observed or predicted climate series to daily series, while adhering to the statistical and geospatial distributional attributes of observed (past) daily climate series in the calibration phase. Employing this daily climate generator, 30 realizations of future daily climate series from downscaled monthly GCM-climate predictor sets are produced and used as input in the SWAT- distributed watershed model, to simulate future streamflow and other hydrological water budget components in the study region in a multi-realization manner. In addition to a general examination of the future changes of the hydrological regime in the KY-basin, potential future changes of the water budgets of three main reservoirs in the basin are analysed, as these are a major source of water supply in the study region. The results of the long-term 21st-century downscaled climate predictions provide evidence that, compared with the past 20th-reference period, the future climate in the study area will be more extreme, particularly, for SRES A1B. Thus, the temperatures will be higher and exhibit larger fluctuations. Although the future intensity of the rainfall is nearly constant, its spatial distribution across the region is partially changing. There is further evidence that the sequential rainfall occurrence will be decreased, so that short periods of high intensities will be followed by longer dry spells. This change in the sequential rainfall pattern will also lead to seasonal reductions of the streamflow and seasonal changes (decreases) of the water storage in the reservoirs. In any case, these predicted future climate changes with their hydrological impacts should encourage water planner and policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to properly handle the future water supply in this area, following the guidelines suggested in this study.