Das Einzugsgebiet der Fulda - Untersuchung der Methoden der Hochwasserstatistik im Zeichen des Klimawandels

Numerous studies have proven an effect of a probable climate change on the hydrosphere’s different subsystems. In the 21st century global and regional redistribution of water has to be expected and it is very likely that extreme weather phenomenon will occur more frequently. From a global view the flood situation will exacerbate. In contrast to these discoveries the classical approach of flood frequency analysis provides terms like “mean flood recurrence interval”. But for this analysis to be valid there is a need for the precondition of stationary distribution parameters which implies that the flood frequencies are constant in time. Newer approaches take into account extreme value distributions with time-dependent parameters. But the latter implies a discard of the mentioned old terminology that has been used up-to-date in engineering hydrology. On the regional scale climate change affects the hydrosphere in various ways. So, the question appears to be whether in central Europe the classical approach of flood frequency analysis is not usable anymore and whether the traditional terminology should be renewed. In the present case study hydro-meteorological time series of the Fulda catchment area (6930 km²), upstream of the gauging station Bonaforth, are analyzed for the time period 1960 to 2100. At first a distributed catchment area model (SWAT2005) is build up, calibrated and finally validated. The Edertal reservoir is regulated as well by a feedback control of the catchments output in case of low water. Due to this intricacy a special modeling strategy has been necessary: The study area is divided into three SWAT basin models and an additional physically-based reservoir model is developed. To further improve the streamflow predictions of the SWAT model, a correction by an artificial neural network (ANN) has been tested successfully which opens a new way to improve hydrological models. With this extension the calibration and validation of the SWAT model for the Fulda catchment area is improved significantly. After calibration of the model for the past 20th century observed streamflow, the SWAT model is driven by high resolution climate data of the regional model REMO using the IPCC scenarios A1B, A2, and B1, to generate future runoff time series for the 21th century for the various sub-basins in the study area. In a second step flood time series HQ(a) are derived from the 21st century runoff time series (scenarios A1B, A2, and B1). Then these flood projections are extensively tested with regard to stationarity, homogeneity and statistical independence. All these tests indicate that the SWAT-predicted 21st-century trends in the flood regime are not significant. Within the projected time the members of the flood time series are proven to be stationary and independent events. Hence, the classical stationary approach of flood frequency analysis can still be used within the Fulda catchment area, notwithstanding the fact that some regional climate change has been predicted using the IPCC scenarios. It should be noted, however, that the present results are not transferable to other catchment areas. Finally a new method is presented that enables the calculation of extreme flood statistics, even if the flood time series is non-stationary and also if the latter exhibits short- and longterm persistence. This method, which is called Flood Series Maximum Analysis here, enables the calculation of maximum design floods for a given risk- or safety level and time period.

Analyzing Gene Centres with the Help of the Checklist Method – the Case of Syria

The present survey of species diversity of cultivated plants is the first for Syria. Some cultivated species will be added in the future, because due to the civil war in Syria, it was not possible to visit the country in the frame of the present work, as initially planned. Checklists proved to be a useful tool for overviewing the cultivated plants of selected areas and allow a characterization of the state of plant genetic resources of Syria. Syria has experienced several civilizations. Man settled in this productive land since ancient times and used its resources. However, such use has led to changes in vegetation and decline of wildlife through the country, in seashore areas, interior, mountains, and grassland. Plant domestication and growing started more than 10,000 years ago in West Asia. Since then, plentiful of economic plant species were present and used by man and his domesticated animals. Forming a part of the Fertile Crescent, where many of the world’s agricultural plants have evolved, Syria is extremely rich in agrobiodiversity. Wild progenitors of wheat and barley and wild relatives of many fruit trees such as almonds and pistachio as well as forage species are still found in marginal lands and less disturbed areas. These are threatened by a wide range of human activities, notably modern, extensive agriculture, overgrazing, overcutting and urban expansion. Syria is also considered as part of one of the main centres of origin, according to Vavilov, who had collected in Syria in 1926. The first expeditions to crop fields showed the exclusive nature of cultivated plants in Syria with a high number of endemic forms. Furthermore, Syria is a part of a biodiversity hotspot. Several studies have been performed to study agrobiodiversity in different parts of Syria, but usually on wild species. Many collections have been carried out; however, they focussed preferably on cereals and pulses, and particularly on wheat, like Vavilov’s expedition. Only 30 crops make up the major part of the conserved Syrian crop plant material in the genebank, indicating that most of the remaining 7,000 species of cultivated plants and many other valuable genetic resources species have only been included on a limited scale in the genebank collections. Although a small country (185,180 km2), Syria accommodates numerous ecosystems that allow for a large diversity of plant genetic resources for agriculture ranging from cold-requiring to subtropical crops to live and thrive. Only few references are available in this respect. The aim of the present study was to complete a checklist of Syria’s cultivated plants of agriculture and horticulture excluding plants only grown as ornamental or for forestry. Furthermore, plants taken for reforestation have not been included, if they do not have also agricultural or horticultural uses. Therefore, the inclusion of plants into the checklist follows the same principles as “Mansfeld’s Encyclopedia”. Main sources of information were published literature, floras of Syria, Lebanon and the Mediterranean, as well as Syrian printed sources in Arabic and/or English, reports from FAO on agricultural statistics in Syria, and data from ICARDA and Bioversity International. In addition, personal observations gathered during professional work in the General Commission for Scientific Agricultural Research (GCSAR) in Syria (since 1989) and participation in projects were taken into account. These were: (1) A project on “Conservation and Sustainable Use of Dry Land Agrobiodiversity in the Near East” with participation of Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and the Palestinian Authority, focussing on landraces and wild relatives of barley, wheat, lentil, alliums, feed legumes, and fruit trees (1999–2005). (2) A project for vegetable landraces (1993–1995) in collaboration with the former International Plant Genetic Resources Institute and the UN Development Programme, in which 380 local vegetable accessions were evaluated. For medicinal plants and fruit trees I was in personal contact with departments of GCSAR and the Ministry of Agriculture and Agrarian Reform, as well as with private organizations. The resulting checklist was compared with the catalogues of crop plants of Italy and a checklist of cultivated plants of Iraq. The cultivated plant species are presented in alphabetical order according to their accepted scientific names. Each entry consists of a nomenclatural part, folk names, details of plant uses, the distribution in Syria (by provinces), a textual description, and references to literature. In total, 262 species belonging to 146 genera and 57 families were identified. Within-species (intraspecific) diversity is a significant measure of the biodiversity. Intraspecific diversity for wild plants has been and remains to be well studied, but for crop plants there are only few results. Mansfeld’s method is an actual logical contribution to such studies. Among the families, the following have the highest number of crop species: Leguminosae (34 spp.), Rosaceae (24), Gramineae (18), Labiatae (18), Compositae (14), Cruciferae (14), Cucurbitaceae (11), Rutaceae (10), Malvaceae (9), Alliaceae (7), and Anacardiaceae (7). The establishment of an effective programme for the maintenance of plant genetic resources in Syria started in the mid-1970s. This programme considered ex situ and in situ collection of the genetic resources of various field crops, fruit trees and vegetables. From a plant genetic resources viewpoint, it is clear that the homegarden is an important location for the cultivation of so-called neglected and underutilized species (neglected from a research side and underutilized from a larger economic side). Such species have so far not received much care from ecologists, botanists and agronomists, and they are considerably under-represented in genebanks.