Design, implementation and application of a generic framework for integrated regional land-use modeling

Land use is a crucial link between human activities and the natural environment and one of the main driving forces of global environmental change. Large parts of the terrestrial land surface are used for agriculture, forestry, settlements and infrastructure. Given the importance of land use, it is essential to understand the multitude of influential factors and resulting land use patterns. An essential methodology to study and quantify such interactions is provided by the adoption of land-use models. By the application of land-use models, it is possible to analyze the complex structure of linkages and feedbacks and to also determine the relevance of driving forces. Modeling land use and land use changes has a long-term tradition. In particular on the regional scale, a variety of models for different regions and research questions has been created. Modeling capabilities grow with steady advances in computer technology, which on the one hand are driven by increasing computing power on the other hand by new methods in software development, e.g. object- and component-oriented architectures. In this thesis, SITE (Simulation of Terrestrial Environments), a novel framework for integrated regional sland-use modeling, will be introduced and discussed. Particular features of SITE are the notably extended capability to integrate models and the strict separation of application and implementation. These features enable efficient development, test and usage of integrated land-use models. On its system side, SITE provides generic data structures (grid, grid cells, attributes etc.) and takes over the responsibility for their administration. By means of a scripting language (Python) that has been extended by language features specific for land-use modeling, these data structures can be utilized and manipulated by modeling applications. The scripting language interpreter is embedded in SITE. The integration of sub models can be achieved via the scripting language or by usage of a generic interface provided by SITE. Furthermore, functionalities important for land-use modeling like model calibration, model tests and analysis support of simulation results have been integrated into the generic framework. During the implementation of SITE, specific emphasis was laid on expandability, maintainability and usability. Along with the modeling framework a land use model for the analysis of the stability of tropical rainforest margins was developed in the context of the collaborative research project STORMA (SFB 552). In a research area in Central Sulawesi, Indonesia, socio-environmental impacts of land-use changes were examined. SITE was used to simulate land-use dynamics in the historical period of 1981 to 2002. Analogous to that, a scenario that did not consider migration in the population dynamics, was analyzed. For the calculation of crop yields and trace gas emissions, the DAYCENT agro-ecosystem model was integrated. In this case study, it could be shown that land-use changes in the Indonesian research area could mainly be characterized by the expansion of agricultural areas at the expense of natural forest. For this reason, the situation had to be interpreted as unsustainable even though increased agricultural use implied economic improvements and higher farmers' incomes. Due to the importance of model calibration, it was explicitly addressed in the SITE architecture through the introduction of a specific component. The calibration functionality can be used by all SITE applications and enables largely automated model calibration. Calibration in SITE is understood as a process that finds an optimal or at least adequate solution for a set of arbitrarily selectable model parameters with respect to an objective function. In SITE, an objective function typically is a map comparison algorithm capable of comparing a simulation result to a reference map. Several map optimization and map comparison methodologies are available and can be combined. The STORMA land-use model was calibrated using a genetic algorithm for optimization and the figure of merit map comparison measure as objective function. The time period for the calibration ranged from 1981 to 2002. For this period, respective reference land-use maps were compiled. It could be shown, that an efficient automated model calibration with SITE is possible. Nevertheless, the selection of the calibration parameters required detailed knowledge about the underlying land-use model and cannot be automated. In another case study decreases in crop yields and resulting losses in income from coffee cultivation were analyzed and quantified under the assumption of four different deforestation scenarios. For this task, an empirical model, describing the dependence of bee pollination and resulting coffee fruit set from the distance to the closest natural forest, was integrated. Land-use simulations showed, that depending on the magnitude and location of ongoing forest conversion, pollination services are expected to decline continuously. This results in a reduction of coffee yields of up to 18% and a loss of net revenues per hectare of up to 14%. However, the study also showed that ecological and economic values can be preserved if patches of natural vegetation are conservated in the agricultural landscape. -----------------------------------------------------------------------

Effects of red brick production on land use, household income, and greenhouse gas emissions in Khartoum, Sudan

In Khartoum (Sudan) a particular factor shaping urban land use is the rapid expansion of red brick making (BM) for the construction of houses which occurs on the most fertile agricultural Gerif soils along the Nile banks. The objectives of this study were to assess the profitability of BM, to explore the income distribution among farmers and kiln owners, to measure the dry matter (DM), nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and organic carbon (C_org) in cow dung used for BM, and to estimate the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from burned biomass fuel (cow dung and fuel wood). About 49 kiln owners were interviewed in 2009 using a semi-structured questionnaire that allowed to record socio-economic and variable cost data for budget calculations, and determination of Gini coefficients. Samples of cow dung were collected directly from the kilns and analyzed for their nutrients concentrations. To estimate GHG emissions a modified approach of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was used. The land rental value from red brick kilns was estimated at 5-fold the rental value from agriculture and the land rent to total cost ratio was 29% for urban farms compared to 6% for BM. The Gini coefficients indicated that income distribution among kiln owners was more equal than among urban farmers. Using IPCC default values the 475, 381, and 36 t DM of loose dung, compacted dung, and fuel wood used for BM emit annually 688, 548, and 60 t of GHGs, respectively.

Land use change from rainforests to oil palm plantations and food gardens in Papua New Guinea: Effects on soil properties and S fractions

Changes in soil sulfur (S) fractions were assessed in oil palm and food garden land use systems developed on forest vegetation in humid tropical areas of Popondetta in northern Province. The study tested a hypothesis that S in food gardens are limiting nutrient factor and are significantly lower than in plantations and forests. Subsistence food gardens are under long-term slash and burn practice of cropping and such practice is expected to accelerate loss of biomass S from the ecosystem. From each land use, surface soil (0���15 cm) samples were characterised and further pseudocomplete fractionated for S. Conversion of forest to oil palm production decreased (p<0.001) soil pH and electrical conductivity values. The reserve S fraction in soil increased significantly (p<0.05) due to oil palm production ( 28 %) and food gardening activity (��� 54 %). However, plant available SO42--S was below 15 mg kg^(���1) in the food garden soils and foliar samples of sweet potato crop indicating deficiency of plant available S. Soil organic carbon content (OC) was positively and significantly correlated to total S content (r=0.533; p<0.001) among the land use systems. Thus, crop management practices that affect OC status of the soils would potentially affect the S availability in soils. The possible changes in the chemical nature of mineralisable organic S compounds leading to enhanced mineralisation and leaching losses could be the reasons for the deficiency of S in the food garden soils. The results of this study conclude that long-term subsistence food gardening activity enriched top soils with reserve S or total S content at the expense of soluble S fraction. The subsistence cropping practices such as biomass burning in food gardens and reduced fallow periods are apparently threatening food security of oil palm households. Improved soil OC management strategies such as avoiding burning of fallow vegetation, improved fallows, mulching with fallow biomass, use of manures and S containing fertilisers must be promoted to sustain food security in smallholder oil palm system.

Soil organic carbon management for sustainable land use in Sudano-Sahelian West Africa

Judged by their negative nutrient balances, low soil cover and low productivity, the predominant agro-pastoral farming systems in the Sudano-Sahelian zone of West Africa are highly unsustainable for crop production intensification. With kaolinite as the main clay type, the cation exchange capacity of the soils in this region, often less than 1 cmol_c kg^-1 soil, depends heavily on the organic carbon (Corg) content. However, due to low carbon sequestration and to the microbe, termite and temperature-induced rapid turnover rates of organic material in the present land-use systems, Corg contents of the topsoil are very low, ranging between 1 and 8 g kg^-1 in most soils. For sustainable food production, the availability of phosphorus (P) and nitrogen (N) has to be increased considerably in combination with an improvement in soil physical properties. Therefore, the adoption of innovative management options that help to stop or even reverse the decline in Corg typically observed after cultivating bush or rangeland is of utmost importance. To maintain food production for a rapidly growing population, targeted applications of mineral fertilisers and the effective recycling of organic amendments as crop residues and manure are essential. Any increase in soil cover has large effects in reducing topsoil erosion by wind and water and favours the accumulation of wind-blown dust high in bases which in turn improves P availability. In the future decision support systems, based on GIS, modelling and simulation should be used to combine (i) available fertiliser response data from on-station and on-farm research, (ii) results on soil productivity restoration with the application of mineral and organic amendments and (iii) our present understanding of the cause-effect relationships governing the prevailing soil degradation processes. This will help to predict the effectiveness of regionally differentiated soil fertility management approaches to maintain or even increase soil Corg levels.

Composition and stability of organic matter fractions in soils under different land use regimes

Soil organic matter (SOM) vitally impacts all soil functions and plays a key role in the global carbon (C) cycle. More than 70% of the terrestric C stocks that participate in the active C cycle are stored in the soil. Therefore, quantitative knowledge of the rates of C incorporation into SOM fractions of different residence time is crucial to understand and predict the sequestration and stabilization of soil organic carbon (SOC). Consequently, there is a need of fractionation procedures that are capable of isolating functionally SOM fractions, i.e. fractions that are defined by their stability. The literature generally refers to three main mechanisms of SOM stabilization: protection of SOM from decomposition by (i) its structural composition, i.e. recalcitrance, (ii) spatial inaccessibility and/or (iii) interaction with soil minerals and metal ions. One of the difficulties in developing fractionation procedures for the isolation of functional SOM fractions is the marked heterogeneity of the soil environment with its various stabilization mechanisms ��� often several mechanisms operating simultaneously ��� in soils and soil horizons of different texture and mineralogy. The overall objective of the present thesis was to evaluate present fractionation techniques and to get a better understanding of the factors of SOM sequestration and stabilization. The first part of this study is attended to the structural composition of SOM. Using 13C cross-polarization magic-angle spinning (CPMAS) nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR) spectroscopy, (i) the effect of land use on SOM composition was investigated and (ii) examined whether SOM composition contributes to the different stability of SOM in density and aggregate fractions. The second part of the present work deals with the mineral-associated SOM fraction. The aim was (iii) to evaluate the suitability of chemical fractionation procedures used in the literature for the isolation of stable SOM pools (stepwise hydrolysis, treatments using oxidizing agents like Na2S2O8, H2O2, and NaOCl as well as demineralization of the residue obtained by the NaOCl treatment using HF (NaOCl+HF)) by pool sizes, 13C and 14C data. Further, (iv) the isolated SOM fractions were compared to the inert organic matter (IOM) pool obtained for the investigated soils using the Rothamsted Carbon Model and isotope data in order to see whether the tested chemical fractionation methods produce SOM fractions capable to represent this pool. Besides chemical fractionation, (v) the suitability of thermal oxidation at different temperatures for obtaining stable SOC pools was evaluated. Finally, (vi) the short-term aggregate dynamics and the factors that impact macroaggregate formation and C stabilization were investigated by means of an incubation study using treatments with and without application of 15N labeled maize straw of different degradability (leaves and coarse roots). All treatments were conducted with and without the addition of fungicide. Two study sites with different soil properties and land managements were chosen for these investigations. The first one, located at Rotthalm��nster, is a Stagnic Luvisol (silty loam) under different land use regimes. The Ah horizons of a spruce forest and continuous grassland and the Ap and E horizons of two plots with arable crops (continuous maize and wheat cropping) were examined. The soil of the second study site, located at Halle, is a Haplic Phaeozem (loamy sand) where the Ap horizons of two plots with arable crops (continuous maize and rye cropping) were investigated. Both study sites had a C3-/C4-vegetational change on the maize plot for the purpose of tracing the incorporation of the younger, maize-derived C into different SOM fractions and the calculation of apparent C turnover times of these. The Halle site is located near a train station and industrial areas, which caused a contamination with high amounts of fossil C. The investigation of aggregate and density fractions by 13C CPMAS NMR spectroscopy revealed that density fractionation isolated SOM fractions of different composition. The consumption of a considerable part (10���20%) of the easily available O-alkyl-C and the selective preservation of the more recalcitrant alkyl-C when passing from litter to the different particulate organic matter (POM) fractions suggest that density fractionation was able to isolate SOM fractions with different degrees of decomposition. The spectra of the aggregate fractions resembled those of the mineral-associated SOM fraction obtained by density fractionation and no considerable differences were observed between aggregate size classes. Comparison of plant litter, density and aggregate size fractions from soil under different land use showed that the type of land use markedly influenced the composition of SOM. While SOM of the acid forest soil was characterized by a large content (> 50%) of POM, which contained high amounts of spruce-litter derived alkyl-C, the organic matter in the biologically more active grassland and arable soils was dominated by mineral-associated SOM (> 95%). This SOM fraction comprised greater proportions of aryl- and carbonyl-C and is considered to contain a higher amount of microbially-derived organic substances. Land use can alter both, structure and stability of SOM fractions. All applied chemical treatments induced considerable SOC losses (> 70���95% of mineral-associated SOM) in the investigated soils. The proportion of residual C after chemical fractionation was largest in the arable Ap and E horizons and increased with decreasing C content in the initial SOC after stepwise hydrolysis as well as after the oxidative treatments with H2O2 and Na2S2O8. This can be expected for a functional stable pool of SOM, because it is assumed that the more easily available part of SOC is consumed first if C inputs decrease. All chemical treatments led to a preferential loss of the younger, maize-derived SOC, but this was most pronounced after the treatments with Na2S2O8 and H2O2. After all chemical fractionations, the mean 14C ages of SOC were higher than in the mineral-associated SOM fraction for both study sites and increased in the order: NaOCl < NaOCl+HF ��� stepwise hydrolysis << H2O2 ��� Na2S2O8. The results suggest that all treatments were capable of isolating a more stable SOM fraction, but the treatments with H2O2 and Na2S2O8 were the most efficient ones. However, none of the chemical fractionation methods was able to fit the IOM pool calculated using the Rothamsted Carbon Model and isotope data. In the evaluation of thermal oxidation for obtaining stable C fractions, SOC losses increased with temperature from 24���48% (200��C) to 100% (500��C). In the Halle maize Ap horizon, losses of the young, maize-derived C were considerably higher than losses of the older C3-derived C, leading to an increase in the apparent C turnover time from 220 years in mineral-associated SOC to 1158 years after thermal oxidation at 300��C. Most likely, the preferential loss of maize-derived C in the Halle soil was caused by the presence of the high amounts of fossil C mentioned above, which make up a relatively large thermally stable C3-C pool in this soil. This agrees with lower overall SOC losses for the Halle Ap horizon compared to the Rotthalm��nster Ap horizon. In the Rotthalm��nster soil only slightly more maize-derived than C3-derived SOC was removed by thermal oxidation. Apparent C turnover times increased slightly from 58 years in mineral-associated SOC to 77 years after thermal oxidation at 300��C in the Rotthalm��nster Ap and from 151 to 247 years in the Rotthalm��nster E horizon. This led to the conclusion that thermal oxidation of SOM was not capable of isolating SOM fractions of considerably higher stability. The incubation experiment showed that macroaggregates develop rapidly after the addition of easily available plant residues. Within the first four weeks of incubation, the maximum aggregation was reached in all treatments without addition of fungicide. The formation of water-stable macroaggregates was related to the size of the microbial biomass pool and its activity. Furthermore, fungi were found to be crucial for the development of soil macroaggregates as the formation of water-stable macroaggregates was significantly delayed in the fungicide treated soils. The C concentration in the obtained aggregate fractions decreased with decreasing aggregate size class, which is in line with the aggregate hierarchy postulated by several authors for soils with SOM as the major binding agent. Macroaggregation involved incorporation of large amounts maize-derived organic matter, but macroaggregates did not play the most important role in the stabilization of maize-derived SOM, because of their relatively low amount (less than 10% of the soil mass). Furthermore, the maize-derived organic matter was quickly incorporated into all aggregate size classes. The microaggregate fraction stored the largest quantities of maize-derived C and N ��� up to 70% of the residual maize-C and -N were stored in this fraction.

A Modeling Analysis of Changing Global Land Use as affected by Changing Demands for Wood Products

The 21st century has brought new challenges for forest management at a time when globalization in world trade is increasing and global climate change is becoming increasingly apparent. In addition to various goods and services like food, feed, timber or biofuels being provided to humans, forest ecosystems are a large store of terrestrial carbon and account for a major part of the carbon exchange between the atmosphere and the land surface. Depending on the stage of the ecosystems and/or management regimes, forests can be either sinks, or sources of carbon. At the global scale, rapid economic development and a growing world population have raised much concern over the use of natural resources, especially forest resources. The challenging question is how can the global demands for forest commodities be satisfied in an increasingly globalised economy, and where could they potentially be produced? For this purpose, wood demand estimates need to be integrated in a framework, which is able to adequately handle the competition for land between major land-use options such as residential land or agricultural land. This thesis is organised in accordance with the requirements to integrate the simulation of forest changes based on wood extraction in an existing framework for global land-use modelling called LandSHIFT. Accordingly, the following neuralgic points for research have been identified: (1) a review of existing global-scale economic forest sector models (2) simulation of global wood production under selected scenarios (3) simulation of global vegetation carbon yields and (4) the implementation of a land-use allocation procedure to simulate the impact of wood extraction on forest land-cover. Modelling the spatial dynamics of forests on the global scale requires two important inputs: (1) simulated long-term wood demand data to determine future roundwood harvests in each country and (2) the changes in the spatial distribution of woody biomass stocks to determine how much of the resource is available to satisfy the simulated wood demands. First, three global timber market models are reviewed and compared in order to select a suitable economic model to generate wood demand scenario data for the forest sector in LandSHIFT. The comparison indicates that the ���Global Forest Products Model��� (GFPM) is most suitable for obtaining projections on future roundwood harvests for further study with the LandSHIFT forest sector. Accordingly, the GFPM is adapted and applied to simulate wood demands for the global forestry sector conditional on selected scenarios from the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment and the Global Environmental Outlook until 2050. Secondly, the Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model is utilized to simulate the change in potential vegetation carbon stocks for the forested locations in LandSHIFT. The LPJ data is used in collaboration with spatially explicit forest inventory data on aboveground biomass to allocate the demands for raw forest products and identify locations of deforestation. Using the previous results as an input, a methodology to simulate the spatial dynamics of forests based on wood extraction is developed within the LandSHIFT framework. The land-use allocation procedure specified in the module translates the country level demands for forest products into woody biomass requirements for forest areas, and allocates these on a five arc minute grid. In a first version, the model assumes only actual conditions through the entire study period and does not explicitly address forest age structure. Although the module is in a very preliminary stage of development, it already captures the effects of important drivers of land-use change like cropland and urban expansion. As a first plausibility test, the module performance is tested under three forest management scenarios. The module succeeds in responding to changing inputs in an expected and consistent manner. The entire methodology is applied in an exemplary scenario analysis for India. A couple of future research priorities need to be addressed, particularly the incorporation of plantation establishments; issue of age structure dynamics; as well as the implementation of a new technology change factor in the GFPM which can allow the specification of substituting raw wood products (especially fuelwood) by other non-wood products.

Modeling the interplay between land use, bioenergy production and climate change

Land use has become a force of global importance, considering that 34% of the Earth���s ice-free surface was covered by croplands or pastures in 2000. The expected increase in global human population together with eminent climate change and associated search for energy sources other than fossil fuels can, through land-use and land-cover changes (LUCC), increase the pressure on nature���s resources, further degrade ecosystem services, and disrupt other planetary systems of key importance to humanity. This thesis presents four modeling studies on the interplay between LUCC, increased production of biofuels and climate change in four selected world regions. In the first study case two new crop types (sugarcane and jatropha) are parameterized in the LPJ for managed Lands dynamic global vegetation model for calculation of their potential productivity. Country-wide spatial variation in the yields of sugarcane and jatropha incurs into substantially different land requirements to meet the biofuel production targets for 2015 in Brazil and India, depending on the location of plantations. Particularly the average land requirements for jatropha in India are considerably higher than previously estimated. These findings indicate that crop zoning is important to avoid excessive LUCC. In the second study case the LandSHIFT model of land-use and land-cover changes is combined with life cycle assessments to investigate the occurrence and extent of biofuel-driven indirect land-use changes (ILUC) in Brazil by 2020. The results show that Brazilian biofuels can indeed cause considerable ILUC, especially by pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests. The carbon debt caused by such ILUC would result in no carbon savings (from using plant-based ethanol and biodiesel instead of fossil fuels) before 44 years for sugarcane ethanol and 246 years for soybean biodiesel. The intensification of livestock grazing could avoid such ILUC. We argue that such an intensification of livestock should be supported by the Brazilian biofuel sector, based on the sector���s own interest in minimizing carbon emissions. In the third study there is the development of a new method for crop allocation in LandSHIFT, as influenced by the occurrence and capacity of specific infrastructure units. The method is exemplarily applied in a first assessment of the potential availability of land for biogas production in Germany. The results indicate that Germany has enough land to fulfill virtually all (90 to 98%) its current biogas plant capacity with only cultivated feedstocks. Biogas plants located in South and Southwestern (North and Northeastern) Germany might face more (less) difficulties to fulfill their capacities with cultivated feedstocks, considering that feedstock transport distance to plants is a crucial issue for biogas production. In the fourth study an adapted version of LandSHIFT is used to assess the impacts of contrasting scenarios of climate change and conservation targets on land use in the Brazilian Amazon. Model results show that severe climate change in some regions by 2050 can shift the deforestation frontier to areas that would experience low levels of human intervention under mild climate change (such as the western Amazon forests or parts of the Cerrado savannas). Halting deforestation of the Amazon and of the Brazilian Cerrado would require either a reduction in the production of meat or an intensification of livestock grazing in the region. Such findings point out the need for an integrated/multicisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon. The overall conclusions of this thesis are that (i) biofuels must be analyzed and planned carefully in order to effectively reduce carbon emissions; (ii) climate change can have considerable impacts on the location and extent of LUCC; and (iii) intensification of grazing livestock represents a promising venue for minimizing the impacts of future land-use and land-cover changes in Brazil.

Assessment of land use and land cover changes during the last 50 years in oases and surrounding rangelands of Xinjiang, NW China

An analysis of historical Corona images, Landsat images, recent radar and Google Earth�� images was conducted to determine land use and land cover changes of oases settlements and surrounding rangelands at the fringe of the Altay Mountains from 1964 to 2008. For the Landsat datasets supervised classification methods were used to test the suitability of the Maximum Likelihood Classifier with subsequent smoothing and the Sequential Maximum A Posteriori Classifier (SMAPC). The results show a trend typical for the steppe and desert regions of northern China. From 1964 to 2008 farmland strongly increased (+ 61%), while the area of grassland and forest in the floodplains decreased (- 43%). The urban areas increased threefold and 400 ha of former agricultural land were abandoned. Farmland apparently affected by soil salinity decreased in size from 1990 (1180 ha) to 2008 (630 ha). The vegetated areas of the surrounding rangelands decreased, mainly as a result of overgrazing and drought events.The SMAPC with subsequent post processing revealed the highest classification accuracy. However, the specific landscape characteristics of mountain oasis systems required labour intensive post processing. Further research is needed to test the use of ancillary information for an automated classification of the examined landscape features.

Effects of changing water availability on land use in irrigated mountain oases of Al Jabal Al Akhdar, northern Oman

In Oman, during the last three decades, agricultural water use and groundwater extraction has dramatically increased to meet the needs of a rapidly growing population and major changes in lifestyle. This has triggered agricultural land-use changes which have been poorly investigated. In view of this our study aimed at analysing patterns of shortterm land-use changes (2007-2009) in the five irrigated mountain oases of Ash Sharayjah, Al���Ayn, Al���Aqr, Qasha��� and Masayrat ar Ruwajah situated in the northern Oman Hajar mountains of Al Jabal Al Akhdar where competitive uses of irrigation water are particularly apparent. Comprehensive GIS-based field surveys were conducted over three years to record changes in terrace use in these five oases where farmers have traditionally adapted to rain-derived variations of irrigation water supply, e.g. by leaving agricultural terraces of annual crops uncultivated in drought years. Results show that the area occupied with field crops decreased in the dry years of 2008 and 2009 for all oases. In Ash Sharayjah, terrace areas grown with field crops declined from 4.7 ha (32.4 % of total terrace area) in 2007 to 3.1 ha (21.6 %) in 2008 and 3.0 ha (20.5 %) in 2009. Similarly, the area proportion of field crops shrunk in Al���Ayn, Qasha��� and Masayrat from 35.2, 36.3 and 49.6 % in 2007 to 19.8, 8.5 and 41.3 % in 2009, respectively. In Al���Aqr, the area of field crops slightly increased from 0.3 ha (17.0 %) in 2007 to 0.7 (39.1 %) in 2008, and decreased to 0.5 ha (28.8 %) in 2009. During the same period annual dry matter yields of the cash crop garlic in Ash Sharayjah increased from 16.3 t ha-1 in 2007 to 19.8 t ha-1 in 2008 and 18.3 t ha-1 in 2009, while the same crop yielded only 0.4, 1.6 and 1.1 t ha-1 in Masayrat. In 2009, the total estimated agricultural area of the new town of Sayh Qatanah above the five oases was around 13.5 ha. Our results suggest that scarcity of irrigation water as a result of low precipitation and increased irrigation and home water consumption in the new urban settlements above the five oases have led to major shifts in the land-use pattern and increasingly threaten the centuries-long tradition and drought-resilience of agriculture in the oases of the studied watershed.

Assessing trends in land use change in the Borana rangeland Ethiopia as one cause of greenhouse gas emissions and carbon sequestration variations

Landnutzungs��nderungen sind eine wesentliche Ursache von Treibhausgasemissionen. Die Umwandlung von ��kosystemen mit permanenter nat��rlicher Vegetation hin zu Ackerbau mit zeitweise vegetationslosem Boden (z.B. nach der Bodenbearbeitung vor der Aussaat) f��hrt h��ufig zu gesteigerten Treibhausgasemissionen und verminderter Kohlenstoffbindung. Weltweit dehnt sich Ackerbau sowohl in kleinb��uerlichen als auch in agro-industriellen Systemen aus, h��ufig in benachbarte semiaride bis subhumide Rangeland ��kosysteme. Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht Trends der Landnutzungs��nderung im Borana Rangeland S��d��thiopiens. Bev��lkerungswachstum, Landprivatisierung und damit einhergehende Einz��unung, ver��nderte Landnutzungspolitik und zunehmende Klimavariabilit��t f��hren zu raschen Ver��nderungen der traditionell auf Tierhaltung basierten, pastoralen Systeme. Mittels einer Literaturanalyse von Fallstudien in ostafrikanischen Rangelands wurde im Rahmen dieser Studie ein schematisches Modell der Zusammenh��nge von Landnutzung, Treibhausgasemissionen und Kohlenstofffixierung entwickelt. Anhand von Satellitendaten und Daten aus Haushaltsbefragungen wurden Art und Umfang von Landnutzungs��nderungen und Vegetationsver��nderungen an f��nf Untersuchungsstandorten (Darito/Yabelo Distrikt, Soda, Samaro, Haralo, Did Mega/alle Dire Distrikt) zwischen 1985 und 2011 analysiert. In Darito dehnte sich die Ackerbaufl��che um 12% aus, ��berwiegend auf Kosten von Buschland. An den ��brigen Standorten blieb die Ackerbaufl��che relativ konstant, jedoch nahm Graslandvegetation um zwischen 16 und 28% zu, w��hrend Buschland um zwischen 23 und 31% abnahm. Lediglich am Standort Haralo nahm auch ���bare land���, vegetationslose Fl��chen, um 13% zu. Faktoren, die zur Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus f��hren, wurden am Standort Darito detaillierter untersucht. GPS Daten und anbaugeschichtlichen Daten von 108 Feldern auf 54 Betrieben wurden in einem Geographischen Informationssystem (GIS) mit thematischen Boden-, Niederschlags-, und Hangneigungskarten sowie einem Digitales H��henmodell ��berlagert. Multiple lineare Regression ermittelte Hangneigung und geographische H��he als signifikante Erkl��rungsvariablen f��r die Ausdehnung von Ackerbau in niedrigere Lagen. Bodenart, Entfernung zum saisonalen Flusslauf und Niederschlag waren hingegen nicht signifikant. Das niedrige Bestimmtheitsma�� (R��=0,154) weist darauf hin, dass es weitere, hier nicht erfasste Erkl��rungsvariablen f��r die Richtung der r��umlichen Ausweitung von Ackerland gibt. Streudiagramme zu Ackergr����e und Anbaujahren in Relation zu geographischer H��he zeigen seit dem Jahr 2000 eine Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus in Lagen unter 1620 m��NN und eine Zunahme der Schlaggr����e (>3ha). Die Analyse der ph��nologischen Entwicklung von Feldfr��chten im Jahresverlauf in Kombination mit Niederschlagsdaten und normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) Zeitreihendaten dienten dazu, Zeitpunkte besonders hoher (Begr��nung vor der Ernte) oder niedriger (nach der Bodenbearbeitung) Pflanzenbiomasse auf Ackerland zu identifizieren, um Ackerland und seine Ausdehnung von anderen Vegetationsformen fernerkundlich unterscheiden zu k��nnen. Anhand der NDVI Spektralprofile konnte Ackerland gut Wald, jedoch weniger gut von Gras- und Buschland unterschieden werden. Die geringe Aufl��sung (250m) der Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI Daten f��hrte zu einem Mixed Pixel Effect, d.h. die Fl��che eines Pixels beinhaltete h��ufig verschiedene Vegetationsformen in unterschiedlichen Anteilen, was deren Unterscheidung beeintr��chtigte. F��r die Entwicklung eines Echtzeit Monitoring Systems f��r die Ausdehnung des Ackerbaus w��ren h��her aufl��sende NDVI Daten (z.B. Multispektralband, Hyperion EO-1 Sensor) notwendig, um kleinr��umig eine bessere Differenzierung von Ackerland und nat��rlicher Rangeland-Vegetation zu erhalten. Die Entwicklung und der Einsatz solcher Methoden als Entscheidungshilfen f��r Land- und Ressourcennutzungsplanung k��nnte dazu beitragen, Produktions- und Entwicklungsziele der Borana Landnutzer mit nationalen Anstrengungen zur Eind��mmung des Klimawandels durch Steigerung der Kohlenstofffixierung in Rangelands in Einklang zu bringen.

Settlement history of a mountain oasis in Northern Oman

To unravel the settlement history of oases in northern Oman, data on topography, the agricultural setting, water and soil parameters and archaeological findings were collected in the Wadi Bani Awf with its head oasis Balad Seet. Data collection lasted from April 2000 to April 2003 and was based on the establishment of a 3D-georeferenced map of the oasis comprising all its major infrastructural and agronomic features. At today's Balad Seet, a total of 8.8 ha are planted to 2,800 date palms and 4.6 ha are divided into 385 small fields dedicated to wheat, barley, sorghum, oats, alfalfa, garlic, onion, lime and banana. Radiocarbon dating of charcoal in the lower part of the main terrace system determined its age to 911 �� 43 years. Monthly flow measurements of four major aflaj systems showed a total maximum flow of 32 m^3 h^-1 with the largest falaj contributing 78% of the total flow. During drought periods, average water flow decreased by 3% per month, however, with significant differences between the spring systems. The analysis of the tritium/^3helium ratio in the water led to an estimated water age of up to 10 years. In combination with the flow data, this provided insights into the elasticity of the spring flow over time. The use of the natural resources of the Wadi Bani Awf by a pastoral population started probably in the early 3rd millennium BC. The first permanent settlement might have been established at Balad Seet during the first part of the 1st millennium BC. Presumably it was initiated by settlers from al-Hamra, a village at the southern foot of the Hajar mountains. Given an abundant und stable flow of springs, even in periods of drought, the construction of Balad Seet's first irrigation systems may have occurred at this early time. The combination of topographic, agricultural, hydro-pedological and archaeological data allowed assessment of the carrying capacity of this oasis over the three millennia of its likely existence. The changing scarcity of land and water and the eventual optimisation of their use by different aflaj constructions have been major driving forces for the development and apparent relativeley stable existence of this oasis.

Agricultural practices and horizontal nutrient balances in urban gardens and the alternative use of urban agricultural land in Khartoum, Sudan

The surge in the urban population evident in most developing countries is a worldwide phenomenon, and often the result of drought, conflicts, poverty and the lack of education opportunities. In parallel with the growth of the cities is the growing need for food which leads to the burgeoning expansion of urban and peri-urban agriculture (UPA). In this context, urban agriculture (UA) contributes significantly to supplying local markets with both vegetable and animal produce. As an income generating activity, UA also contributes to the livelihoods of poor urban dwellers. In order to evaluate the nutrient status of urban soils in relation to garden management, this study assessed nutrient fluxes (inputs and outputs) in gardens on urban Gerif soils on the banks of the River Nile in Khartoum, the capital city of Sudan. To achieve this objective, a preliminary baseline survey was carried out to describe the structure of the existing garden systems. In cooperation with the author of another PhD thesis (Ms. Ishtiag Abdalla), alternative uses of cow dung in brick making kilns in urban Khartoum were assessed; and the socio-economic criteria of the brick kiln owners or agents, economical and plant nutritional value of animal dung and the gaseous emission related to brick making activities were assessed. A total of 40 household heads were interviewed using a semi-structured questionnaire to collect information on demographic, socio-economic and migratory characteristics of the household members, the gardening systems used and the problems encountered in urban gardening. Based on the results of this survey, gardens were divided into three groups: mixed vegetable-fodder gardens, mixed vegetable-subsistence livestock gardens and pure vegetable gardens. The results revealed that UA is the exclusive domain of men, 80% of them non-native to Khartoum. The harvested produce in all gardens was market oriented and represented the main source of income for 83% of the gardeners. Fast growing leafy vegetables such as Jew���s mallow (Corchorous olitorius L.), purslane (Portulaca oleracea L.) and rocket (Eruca sativa Mill.) were the dominant cultivated species. Most of the gardens (95%) were continuously cultivated throughout the year without any fallow period, unless they were flooded. Gardeners were not generally aware of the importance of crop diversity, which may help them overcome the strongly fluctuating market prices for their produce and thereby strengthen the contributions of UA to the overall productivity of the city. To measure nutrient fluxes, four gardens were selected and their nutrients inputs and outputs flows were monitored. In each garden, all plots were monitored for quantification of nutrient inputs and outputs. To determine soil chemical fertility parameters in each of the studied gardens, soil samples were taken from three selected plots at the beginning of the study in October 2007 (gardens L1, L2 and H1) and in April 2008 (garden H2) and at the end of the study period in March 2010. Additional soil sampling occurred in May 2009 to assess changes in the soil nutrient status after the River Nile flood of 2008 had receded. Samples of rain and irrigation water (river and well-water) were analyzed for nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), potassium (K) and carbon (C) content to determine their nutrient inputs. Catchment traps were installed to quantify the sediment yield from the River Nile flood. To quantify the nutrient inputs of sediments, samples were analyzed for N, P, K and organic carbon (Corg) content, cation exchange capacity (CEC) and the particle size distribution. The total nutrient inputs were calculated by multiplying the sediment nutrient content by total sediment deposits on individual gardens. Nutrient output in the form of harvested yield was quantified at harvest of each crop. Plant samples from each field were dried, and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. Cumulative leaching losses of mineral N and P were estimated in a single plot in garden L1 from December 1st 2008 to July 1st 2009 using 12 ion exchange resins cartridges. Nutrients were extracted and analyzed for nitrate (NO3--N), ammonium (NH4+-N) and phosphate PO4-3-P. Changes in soil nutrient balance were assessed as inputs minus outputs. The results showed that across gardens, soil N and P concentrations increased from 2007 to 2009, while particle size distribution remained unchanged. Sediment loads and their respective contents of N, P and Corg decreased significantly (P < 0.05) from the gardens of the downstream lowlands (L1 and L2) to the gardens of the upstream highlands (H1 and H2). No significant difference was found in K deposits. None of the gardens received organic fertilizers and the only mineral fertilizer applied was urea (46-0-0). This equaled 29, 30, 54, and 67% of total N inputs to gardens L1, L2, H1, and H2, respectively. Sediment deposits of the River Nile floods contributed on average 67, 94, 6 and 42% to the total N, P, K and C inputs in lowland gardens and 33, 86, 4 and 37% of total N, P, K and C inputs in highland gardens. Irrigation water and rainfall contributed substantially to K inputs representing 96, 92, 94 and 96% of total K influxes in garden L1, L2, H1 and H2, respectively. Following the same order, total annual DM yields in the gardens were 26, 18, 16 and 1.8 t ha-1. Annual leaching losses were estimated to be 0.02 kg NH4+-N ha-1 (SE = 0.004), 0.03 kg NO3--N ha-1 (SE = 0.002) and 0.005 kg PO4-3-P ha-1 (SE = 0.0007). Differences between nutrient inputs and outputs indicated negative nutrient balances for P and K and positive balances of N and C for all gardens. The negative balances in P and K call for adoptions of new agricultural techniques such as regular manure additions or mulching which may enhance the soil organic matter status. A quantification of fluxes not measured in our study such as N2-fixation, dry deposition and gaseous emissions of C and N would be necessary to comprehensively assess the sustainability of these intensive gardening systems. The second part of the survey dealt with the brick making kilns. A total of 50 brick kiln owners/or agents were interviewed from July to August 2009, using a semi-structured questionnaire. The data collected included general information such as age, family size, education, land ownership, number of kilns managed and/or owned, number of months that kilns were in operation, quantity of inputs (cow dung and fuel wood) used, prices of inputs and products across the production season. Information related to the share value of the land on which the kilns were built and annual income for urban farmers and annual returns from dung for the animal raisers was also collected. Using descriptive statistics, budget calculation and Gini coefficient, the results indicated that renting the land to brick making kilns yields a 5-fold higher return than the rent for agriculture. Gini coefficient showed that the kiln owners had a more equal income distribution compared to farmers. To estimate emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and losses of N, P, K, Corg and DM from cow dung when used in brick making, samples of cow dung (loose and compacted) were collected from different kilns and analyzed for their N, P, K and Corg content. The procedure modified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 1994) was used to estimate the gaseous emissions of cow dung and fuel wood. The amount of deforested wood was estimated according to the default values for wood density given by Dixon et al. (1991) and the expansion ratio for branches and small trees given by Brown et al. (1989). The data showed the monetary value of added N and P from cow dung was lower than for mineral fertilizers. Annual consumption of compacted dung (381 t DM) as biomass fuel by far exceeded the consumption of fuel wood (36 t DM). Gaseous emissions from cow dung and fuel wood were dominated by CO2, CO and CH4. Considering that Gerif land in urban Khartoum supports a multifunctional land use system, efficient use of natural resources (forest, dung, land and water) will enhance the sustainability of the UA and brick making activities. Adoption of new kilns with higher energy efficiency will reduce the amount of biomass fuels (cow dung and wood) used the amount of GHGs emitted and the threat to the few remaining forests.

Changes of traditional farming systems and their effects on land degradation and socio-economic conditions in the Inle Lake region, Myanmar

At many locations in Myanmar, ongoing changes in land use have negative environmental impacts and threaten natural ecosystems at local, regional and national scales. In particular, the watershed area of Inle Lake in eastern Myanmar is strongly affected by the environmental effects of deforestation and soil erosion caused by agricultural intensification and expansion of agricultural land, which are exacerbated by the increasing population pressure and the growing number of tourists. This thesis, therefore, focuses on land use changes in traditional farming systems and their effects on socio-economic and biophysical factors to improve our understanding of sustainable natural resource management of this wetland ecosystem. The main objectives of this research were to: (1) assess the noticeable land transformations in space and time, (2) identify the typical farming systems as well as the divergent livelihood strategies, and finally, (3) estimate soil erosion risk in the different agro-ecological zones surrounding the Inle Lake watershed area. GIS and remote sensing techniques allowed to identify the dynamic land use and land cover changes (LUCC) during the past 40 years based on historical Corona images (1968) and Landsat images (1989, 2000 and 2009). In this study, 12 land cover classes were identified and a supervised classification was used for the Landsat datasets, whereas a visual interpretation approach was conducted for the Corona images. Within the past 40 years, the main landscape transformation processes were deforestation (- 49%), urbanization (+ 203%), agricultural expansion (+ 34%) with a notably increase of floating gardens (+ 390%), land abandonment (+ 167%), and marshlands losses in wetland area (- 83%) and water bodies (- 16%). The main driving forces of LUCC appeared to be high population growth, urbanization and settlements, a lack of sustainable land use and environmental management policies, wide-spread rural poverty, an open market economy and changes in market prices and access. To identify the diverse livelihood strategies in the Inle Lake watershed area and the diversity of income generating activities, household surveys were conducted (total: 301 households) using a stratified random sampling design in three different agro-ecological zones: floating gardens (FG), lowland cultivation (LL) and upland cultivation (UP). A cluster and discriminant analysis revealed that livelihood strategies and socio-economic situations of local communities differed significantly in the different zones. For all three zones, different livelihood strategies were identified which differed mainly in the amount of on-farm and off-farm income, and the level of income diversification. The gross margin for each household from agricultural production in the floating garden, lowland and upland cultivation was US$ 2108, 892 and 619 ha-1 respectively. Among the typical farming systems in these zones, tomato (Lycopersicon esculentum L.) plantation in the floating gardens yielded the highest net benefits, but caused negative environmental impacts given the overuse of inorganic fertilizers and pesticides. The Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation (RUSLE) and spatial analysis within GIS were applied to estimate soil erosion risk in the different agricultural zones and for the main cropping systems of the study region. The results revealed that the average soil losses in year 1989, 2000 and 2009 amounted to 20, 10 and 26 t ha-1, respectively and barren land along the steep slopes had the highest soil erosion risk with 85% of the total soil losses in the study area. Yearly fluctuations were mainly caused by changes in the amount of annual precipitation and the dynamics of LUCC such as deforestation and agriculture extension with inappropriate land use and unsustainable cropping systems. Among the typical cropping systems, upland rainfed rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivation had the highest rate of soil erosion (20 t ha-1yr-1) followed by sebesten (Cordia dichotoma) and turmeric (Curcuma longa) plantation in the UP zone. This study indicated that the hotspot region of soil erosion risk were upland mountain areas, especially in the western part of the Inle lake. Soil conservation practices are thus urgently needed to control soil erosion and lake sedimentation and to conserve the wetland ecosystem. Most farmers have not yet implemented soil conservation measures to reduce soil erosion impacts such as land degradation, sedimentation and water pollution in Inle Lake, which is partly due to the low economic development and poverty in the region. Key challenges of agriculture in the hilly landscapes can be summarized as follows: fostering the sustainable land use of farming systems for the maintenance of ecosystem services and functions while improving the social and economic well-being of the population, integrated natural resources management policies and increasing the diversification of income opportunities to reduce pressure on forest and natural resources.

Throughfall and soil properties in shaded and unshaded coffee plantations and a secondary forest: a case study from Southern Colombia

In Colombia coffee production is facing risks due to an increase in the variability and amount of rainfall, which may alter hydrological cycles and negatively influence yield quality and quantity. Shade trees in coffee plantations, however, are known to produce ecological benefits, such as intercepting rainfall and lowering its velocity, resulting in a reduced net-rainfall and higher water infiltration. In this case study, we measured throughfall and soil hydrological properties in four land use systems in Cauca, Colombia, that differed in stand structural parameters: shaded coffee, unshaded coffee, secondary forest and pasture. We found that throughfall was rather influenced by stand structural characteristics than by rainfall intensity. Lower throughfall was recorded in the shaded coffee compared to the other systems when rain gauges were placed at a distance of 1.0 m to the shade tree. The variability of throughfall was high in the shaded coffee, which was due to different canopy characteristics and irregular arrangements of shade tree species. Shaded coffee and secondary forest resembled each other in soil structural parameters, with an increase in saturated hydraulic conductivity and microporosity, whereas bulk density and macroporosity decreased, compared to the unshaded coffee and pasture. In this context tree-covered systems indicate a stronger resilience towards changing rainfall patterns, especially in mountainous areas where coffee is cultivated.

Status and Potential of Smallholder Livestock Production Systems in Xishuangbanna, southern P.R. China

With Chinas rapid economic development during the last decades, the national demand for livestock products has quadrupled within the last 20 years. Most of that increase in demand has been answered by subsidized industrialized production systems, while million of smallholders, which still provide the larger share of livestock products in the country, have been neglected. Fostering those systems would help China to lower its strong urban migration streams, enhance the livelihood of poorer rural population and provide environmentally save livestock products which have a good chance to satisfy customers demand for ecological food. Despite their importance, China���s smallholder livestock keepers have not yet gained appropriate attention from governmental authorities and researchers. However, profound analysis of those systems is required so that adequate support can lead to a better resource utilization and productivity in the sector. To this aim, this pilot study analyzes smallholder livestock production systems in Xishuangbanna, located in southern China. The area is bordered by Lao and Myanmar and geographically counts as tropical region. Its climate is characterized by dry and temperate winters and hot summers with monsoon rains from May to October. While the regionis plain, at about 500 m asl above sea level in the south, outliers of the Himalaya mountains reach out into the north of Xishuangbanna, where the highest peak reaches 2400 m asl. Except of one larger city, Jinghong, Xishuangbanna mainly is covered by tropical rainforest, areas under agricultural cultivation and villages. The major income is generated through inner-Chinese tourism and agricultural production. Intensive rubber plantations are distinctive for the lowland plains while small-scaled traditional farms are scattered in the mountane regions. In order to determine the current state and possible future chances of smallholder livestock production in that region, this study analyzed the current status of the smallholder livestock sector in the Naban River National Nature Reserve (NRNNR), an area which is largely representative for the whole prefecture. It covers an area of about 50square kilometer and reaches from 470 up to 2400 m asl. About 5500 habitants of different ethnic origin are situated in 24 villages. All data have been collected between October 2007 and May 2010. Three major objectives have been addressed in the study: 1. Classifying existing pig production systems and exploring respective pathways for development 2. Quantifying the performance of pig breeding systemsto identify bottlenecks for production 3. Analyzing past and current buffalo utilization to determine the chances and opportunities of buffalo keeping in the future In order to classify the different pig production s ystems, a baseline survey (n=204, stratified cluster sampling) was carried out to gain data about livestock species, numbers, management practices, cultivated plant species and field sizes as well associo-economic characteristics. Sampling included two clusters at village level (altitude, ethnic affiliation), resulting in 13 clusters of which 13-17 farms were interviewed respectively. Categorical Principal Component Analysis (CatPCA) and a two-step clustering algorithm have been applied to identify determining farm characteristics and assort recorded households into classes of livestock production types. The variables keep_sow_yes/no, TLU_pig, TLU_buffalo, size_of_corn_fields, altitude_class, size_of_tea_plantationand size_of_rubber_fieldhave been found to be major determinants for the characterization of the recorded farms. All farms have extensive or semi-intensive livestock production, pigs and buffaloes are predominant livestock species while chicken and aquaculture are available but play subordinate roles for livelihoods. All pig raisers rely on a single local breed, which is known as Small Ear Pig (SMEP) in the region. Three major production systemshave been identified: Livestock-corn based LB; 41%), rubber based (RB; 39%) and pig based (PB;20%) systems. RB farms earn high income from rubber and fatten 1.9 ��1.80 pigs per household (HH), often using purchased pig feed at markets. PB farms own similar sized rubber plantations and raise 4.7 ��2.77 pigs per HH, with fodder mainly being cultivated and collected in theforest. LB farms grow corn, rice and tea and keep 4.6 ��3.32 pigs per HH, also fed with collected and cultivated fodder. Only 29% of all pigs were marketed (LB: 20%; RB: 42%; PB: 25%), average annual mortality was 4.0 ��4.52 pigs per farm (LB: 4.6 ��3.68; RB: 1.9 ��2.14; PB: 7.1 ��10.82). Pig feed mainly consists of banana pseudo stem, corn and rice hives and is prepared in batches about two to three times per week. Such fodder might be sufficient in energy content but lacks appropriate content of protein. Pigs therefore suffer from malnutrition, which becomes most critical in the time before harvest season around October. Farmers reported high occurrences of gastrointestinal parasites in carcasses and often pig stables were wet and filled with manure. Deficits in nutritional and hygienic management are major limits for development and should be the first issues addressed to improve productivity. SME pork was found to be known and referred by local customers in town and by richer lowland farmers. However, high prices and lacking availability of SME pork at local wet-markets were the reasons which limited purchase. If major management constraints are overcome, pig breeders (PB and LB farms) could increase the share of marketed pigs for town markets and provide fatteners to richer RB farmers. RB farmers are interested in fattening pigs for home consumption but do not show any motivation for commercial pig raising. To determine the productivity of input factors in pig production, eproductive performance, feed quality and quantity as well as weight development of pigs under current management were recorded. The data collection included a progeny history survey covering 184 sows and 437 farrows, bi-weekly weighing of 114 pigs during a 16-months time-span on 21 farms (10 LB and 11 PB) as well as the daily recording of feed quality and quantity given to a defined number of pigs on the same 21 farms. Feed samples of all recorded ingredients were analyzed for their respective nutrient content. Since no literature values on thedigestibility of banana pseudo stem ��� which is a major ingredient of traditional pig feed in NRNNR ��� were found, a cross-sectional digestibility trial with 2x4 pigs has been conducted on a station in the research area. With the aid of PRY Herd Life Model, all data have been utilized to determine thesystems��� current (Status Quo = SQ) output and the productivity of the input factor ���feed��� in terms of saleable life weight per kg DM feed intake and monetary value of output per kg DM feed intake.Two improvement scenarios were simulated, assuming 1) that farmers adopt a culling managementthat generates the highest output per unit input (Scenario 1; SC I) and 2) that through improved feeding, selected parameters of reproduction are improved by 30% (SC II). Daily weight gain averaged 55 �� 56 g per day between day 200 and 600. The average feed energy content of traditional feed mix was 14.92 MJ ME. Age at first farrowing averaged 14.5 �� 4.34 months, subsequent inter-farrowing interval was 11.4 �� 2.73 months. Littersize was 5.8 piglets and weaning age was 4.3 �� 0.99 months. 18% of piglets died before weaning. Simulating pig production at actualstatus, it has been show that monetary returns on inputs (ROI) is negative (1:0.67), but improved (1:1.2) when culling management was optimized so that highest output is gained per unit feed input. If in addition better feeding, controlled mating and better resale prices at fixed dates were simulated, ROI further increased to 1:2.45, 1:2.69, 1:2.7 and 1:3.15 for four respective grower groups. Those findings show the potential of pork production, if basic measures of improvement are applied. Futureexploration of the environment, including climate, market-season and culture is required before implementing the recommended measures to ensure a sustainable development of a more effective and resource conserving pork production in the future. The two studies have shown that the production of local SME pigs plays an important role in traditional farms in NRNNR but basic constraints are limiting their productivity. However, relatively easy approaches are sufficient for reaching a notable improvement. Also there is a demand for more SME pork on local markets and, if basic constraints have been overcome, pig farmers could turn into more commercial producers and provide pork to local markets. By that, environmentally safe meat can be offered to sensitive consumers while farmers increase their income and lower the risk of external shocks through a more diverse income generating strategy. Buffaloes have been found to be the second important livestock species on NRNNR farms. While they have been a core resource of mixed smallholderfarms in the past, the expansion of rubber tree plantations and agricultural mechanization are reasons for decreased swamp buffalo numbers today. The third study seeks to predict future utilization of buffaloes on different farm types in NRNNR by analyzing the dynamics of its buffalo population and land use changes over time and calculating labor which is required for keeping buffaloes in view of the traction power which can be utilized for field preparation. The use of buffaloes for field work and the recent development of the egional buffalo population were analyzed through interviews with 184 farmers in 2007/2008 and discussions with 62 buffalo keepers in 2009. While pig based farms (PB; n=37) have abandoned buffalo keeping, 11% of the rubber based farms (RB; n=71) and 100% of the livestock-corn based farms (LB; n=76) kept buffaloes in 2008. Herd size was 2.5 ��1.80 (n=84) buffaloes in early 2008 and 2.2 ��1.69 (n=62) in 2009. Field work on own land was the main reason forkeeping buffaloes (87.3%), but lending work buffaloes to neighbors (79.0%) was also important. Other purposes were transport of goods (16.1%), buffalo trade (11.3%) and meat consumption(6.4%). Buffalo care required 6.2 ��3.00 working hours daily, while annual working time of abuffalo was 294 ��216.6 hours. The area ploughed with buffaloes remained constant during the past 10 years despite an expansion of land cropped per farm. Further rapid replacement of buffaloes by tractors is expected in the near future. While the work economy is drastically improved by the use of tractors, buffaloes still can provide cheap work force and serve as buffer for economic shocks on poorer farms. Especially poor farms, which lack alternative assets that could quickly be liquidizedin times of urgent need for cash, should not abandon buffalo keeping. Livestock has been found to be a major part of small mixed farms in NRNNR. The general productivity was low in both analyzed species, buffaloes and pigs. Productivity of pigs can be improved through basic adjustments in feeding, reproductive and hygienic management, and with external support pig production could further be commercialized to provide pork and weaners to local markets and fattening farms. Buffalo production is relatively time intensive, and only will be of importance in the future to very poor farms and such farms that cultivate very small terraces on steep slopes. These should be encouraged to further keep buffaloes. With such measures, livestock production in NRNNR has good chances to stay competitive in the future.